It's impossible to have a New Orleans Saints conversation these days without going into the possibility of either trading for or signing Derek Carr.
But would it actually be worth the plunge? That's the topic Jeff Nowak and Steve Geller debate in the latest episode of WWL and Audacy's Inside Black & Gold podcast.
Listen to the full conversation in the player above. Can't see the embed? Click here.
As Steve correctly points out, the cost would be significant, particularly if the Saints opted to get out ahead of the field and swung a trade. They'd have to get it done prior to Feb. 15 deadline where a significant chunk of his future contract is guaranteed, because it's almost certain the Las Vegas Raiders would cut him by that point. The ticking clock is a major element in why Carr's visit to New Orleans this week is so intriguing. The 31-year-old has a full no-trade clause in his deal, and could veto any trade if he isn't sold on the destination.
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But what would it cost? Going back to the 2022 season, a trio of similar trades should offer a good baseline to consider.
Matt Ryan to Colts
- Colts received: Matt Ryan
- Falcons received: Colts' 2022 third-round pick
Carson Wentz to Commanders
- Commanders received: Carson Wentz; Colts' 2022 2nd
- Colts received: Commanders' 2023 2nd & 3rd; 2023 3rd (which could've converted to a 2nd based on snaps played)
Baker Mayfield to Panthers
- Panthers received: Baker Mayfield
- Browns received: 2024 5th (could've converted to a 4th based on snaps played)
All three highly drafted QBs. All going to new markets to be the presumptive starter. Three different prices. The Wentz price seems remarkably steep and a bit confusing given his production the last several years. The Mayfield price is remarkably low considering he was drafted No. 1 overall just a few seasons back. You can split the difference and land at the Matt Ryan price, which is likely what would happen for the Saints. The Raiders don't have much time or leverage to work with, so it's likely he Saints could bring in Carr for a mid-round pick in either this year or next year's draft (the Saints don't currently have a third-rounder in 2024).
It's the price of doing business for the Saints to avoid the drama of a free agency bidding war. And if the team thinks Carr is the guy, they'll probably pay it.
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The other question would be: Will Carr actually move the needle above a guy like Andy Dalton, who can be had at a significantly lower number?
It's a fair question, with their career numbers indicating similar production. But for argument's sake there are two clear differences, Nowak says.
1. Athletically. Dalton to Carr would be a significant upgrade. Carr isn't the most mobile in the world, but he is sneakily athletic. At the 2014 combine he ran a 4.69 40-yard dash. He's obviously slowed down a good bit since then, but so has Dalton, who ran a 4.93 and is 14 years removed from his combine performance. The other Saints QB under contract, Jameis Winston, ran a 4.97 and suffered a major knee injury in the 2021 season. Is Carr a star, dual-threat QB? No. But he would be an upgrade in the mobility department.
2. Is clutch a stat? Say what you want about his overall record, there is one part of the game where Carr has been remarkably good: 4th quarter comebacks. He has already logged 28 of them over his 9 years in the NFL, a number that's good for No. 13 in NFL history. He only needs 8 more to tie Drew Brees. Tom Brady has the most with 48. And how could that have been a factor in 2022? Go back to a game like Week 6 against the Bengals. The Saints got the ball at their own 30, down 4 points with 1:57 remaining and two timeouts. They only managed to move the ball 22 yards before turning it over on down after a 4th and 17 attempt. That's winning time, and the Saints were simply not good enough in those moments outside of Week 1, when you point to Jameis Winston as being clutch (which I'd argue he has some good arguments to make as well in that department).
Would those two characteristics be enough to justify taking on the final three years of a deal scheduled to pay out more than $120 million for a team that's projected to be nearly $60 million over the cap prior to the annual maneuvers? That's what the Saints have to decide by Feb. 15. Tick. Tick. Tick.
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