We’ve heard all the takes – well, maybe not all of them – and it’s almost time for the Saints to do the opposite of what everyone expects, because that’s what seems to happen every year.
It’s just how they seem to operate, or at least how they have in the Sean Payton iteration of this Saints organization. Will this be the first of many drafts that begin to illustrate some of the differences now with Dennis Allen in charge? I expect it will be.
The Saints have already gone outside the box to add a second first-round selection, a far cry from the scenario DA faced in his first year as the head coach of the then-Oakland Raiders. His team didn’t have a first- or second-round selection that year. The results were as you might expect.
The truth is, we don’t know what to expect in the draft as the Saints embark on the post-Sean Payton era. So rather than give you one breakdown of who I expect or predict the Saints will take, let’s instead simulate the first 15 picks and go down four potential draft roads with the picks at 16 and 19.
FIRST THINGS FIRST
As the explanation above hints at, I’m not going down the road of a draft day trade, at least not for a move forward. While it’s always possible the Saints find an offer/player they love and go get their guy, it feels far more likely they’ve already shot their shot in that regard. Why? Well, the 16 and 19 isn’t really a more attractive trade package than what they gave up to add an extra pick (18, 101, 2023 1st, 2024 2nd.) If the plan was to go up the draft board, it’d have made more sense to hold onto the 2023 1st and move it in that deal, because it would likely be a more valuable trade chip in that instance. For example: If the Jets want to move off 10, odds are they’d have much rather added a future pick than a third rookie in the first round at the expense of a player that could be had 9 picks earlier.
That’s not to say it can’t happen, I just don’t think that was the goal so I’m not going to go down that road until I have to. So without further ado …
THE DRAFT ORDER
- 1. Jaguars: Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
- 2. Lions: Aidan Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan
- 3. Texans: Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
- 4. Jets: Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
- 5. Giants: Ikem Okonwu, OT, NC State
- 6. Panthers: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
- 7. Giants: Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
- 8. Falcons: Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
- 9. Seahawks: Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
- 10. Jets: Derek Stingley Jr, CB, LSU
- 11. Washington: Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
- 12. Vikings: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State
- 13. Texans: George Karlaftis, EDGE, Purdue
- 14. Ravens: Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
- 15. Eagles: Drake London, WR, USC
ROUTE 1: NEED FOR NEED
- Pick 16: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
This is the simplest route. The Saints lost their longtime LT Terron Armstead in free agency, they add their left tackle of the future in Trevor Penning. I was high on Penning before Armstead departed, I got higher on him while watching Senior Bowl practices and he just makes far too much sense to pass on if he falls in your lap at 16. Penning plays mean, he rebuilds through the line as the Saints love to do, and he gives Jameis Winston a reliable body to protect his blindside.
- Pick 19: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
At 19 things got a bit complicated. The sim handed Chris Olave, my likely WR pick, to the Chargers at 17, then linebacker Devin Lloyd to the Eagles at 18. Since this is my need-based mock, that left me essentially picking between two players at the Saints’ greatest position of need: Alabama’s Jameson Williams and Arkansas’ Treylon Burks. It’s tough to go against the upside of Williams, but if you’re drafting for need at a position you hope to have an impact in Year 1, the devastating knee injury he’s working back from makes things difficult. You’re also hoping your quarterback and star wide receiver Michael Thomas can get back to form following major injuries, a third feels like a lot. And there’s a ton to love with Burks. He profiles as a slot weapon who excels at making contested catches, an area the Saints struggled mightily in 2021.
The Saints get their weapon, even if his athletic measurements (4.55 in 40, 33 inch vertical leap) leave a bit to be desired.
The pros: The fans are happy as clams. The team addressed its two biggest needs, sets up the team in the best shot to contend for the playoffs in 2022, probably gets solid draft grades from the pundits and sends the message that they're committed to giving Jameis Winston a full shot to lead the Saints on his new deal. Quick. Clean. Regardless of whether it works, it's tough to second-guess in the moment. Down the road? That's a different story.
The cons: The Giants are the best example of a team that never got it right at quarterback, wasted players' prime years on a team that was doomed, cycled through multiple coaches and is still yet to make it out of purgatory. The way teams end up like that is drafting for need, rather than simply building in the most sensible ways. If it works, the draft is hailed as a success and it'll never be questioned. If it fails, you could set yourself back years. Cross your fingers for the former.
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ROUTE 2: BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE
- Pick 16: Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
So here’s the thing … if the Saints truly have ID’d Kenny Pickett as a potential cornerstone QB, you don’t wait around. I’m not saying they necessarily SHOULD go this route, but if he’s there and you’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s happening at 16, not 19. Going by “best player available,” you’re not only weighing the quality of the player, you’re weighing the premium nature of the position. There is no more important position on the field than quarterback, so if he’s there and you’re trusting your method – that’s where you’re going first.
I’ve been on record as stating that I don’t think there’s a sure-fire starter in this QB class. I’d wager, if there is a potential star in that group, it’s going to take development to get them there. I’m not sure if the first year post-Payton is the year to test your QB development clout. This is also a roster that could contend with a few key pieces, so for those reasons I’d advise against the Saints using a premium asset on a quarterback. But hey, there are a lot of good reasons I’m not in an NFL front office. Regardless of a QB selection, I’d wager Jameis Winston will still be the man starting games for the Saints in the 2022 season. The 49ers showed last year that it’s possible to thread that needle, will the Saints try to do the same?
If you twisted my arm to pick a QB, I’d err toward Desmond Ridder. But, again, this is BPA so I’m going by the rankings as I assume they are and not what I would be doing in that circumstance.
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- Pick 19: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Have I mentioned that I’m high on Trevor Penning? Even when you’re not drafting for need, when the best player available is also at a position of need, that’s a no-brainer. I’m not sure how else to explain that I think if Penning is on the board for the Saints, he’s going to be headed to New Orleans.
The pros: You've managed to add the player many believe to be the top quarterback in this class at the No. 16 selection, and also added the LT of the present and future three picks later. There are worse ways to come out of a draft.
The cons: There will still be quality WR options to pick from at No. 49, but failing to land one of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Drake London and Treylon Burks would feel like a missed opportunity when the WR position is such a clear need. It also sets up a potentially awkward scenario as it pertains to Jameis Winston. For this to happen, it was hopefully laid out to him in advance of his signing a 3-year deal, if for no other reason than to avoid the headline that it caught him by surprise. Jameis still gets his LT, but his runway with full control of the offense gets chopped down significantly with one selection. It's not difficult to see that scenario spiraling downhill if things don't go well early on in 2022.
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ROUTE 3: THE RELATIVE ATHLETIC SCORE
- Pick 16: Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Oh hey, a familiar name. For anyone who’s been following the Saints’ draft exploits of the last several seasons, they’ll know the depths of the Saints’ fascination with the Relative Athletic Score. Last year, Payton Turner’s 9.74 ranked 4th among draft-eligible DEs. In 2020, Cesar Ruiz’s 9.07 ranked 1st among draft-eligible centers.
You might see where this is going. In 2022, Trevor Penning’s 9.96 rating is not only first among offensive linemen, it’s 8th out of ALL draft-eligible players. Who better to replace the man who still owns the combine 40-yard dash record for linemen in Terron Armstead?
- Pick 19: Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
Now, this should come with a disclaimer: If Wyatt’s teammate, Jordan Davis, hadn’t gone off the board at No. 14, he’d have been the no-brainer selection with a perfect RAS score. But Wyatt is no slouch with a 9.59, which ranks third among DTs. I think the interior rush is an area of need that few are talking about right now, but I assure you it’s well on the radar for Dennis Allen and co-defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Saints addressed the position with free agent signing Kentavius Street and also have a star in David Onyemata, but the Saints put a premium on rushing with four, and that means stopping the run with four. Taking an interior rusher in the first round also wouldn’t be out of character, considering they spent the No. 12 pick on Sheldon Rankins in 2016, and he’s the key piece that departed in the 2021 offseason and has yet to be replaced.
This pick would, of course, would drive the WR obsessives a bit crazy, but would it really feel like a Saints draft if this didn’t happen? There will be options to add a WR in Round 2, and I still wouldn’t put it past the Saints to go that route. The Saints haven’t gone WR in the first round since Brandin Cooks in 2014, and I don’t think it’s a sure thing that changes this year.
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The pros: You're not overreacting to need and continue the methodology that has helped build an annual contender with quality depth at positions you value most.
The cons: Again: There will still be quality WR options to pick from at No. 49, but failing to land one of Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Drake London and Treylon Burks would feel like a missed opportunity when the WR position is such a clear need. And you have again passed in the top end of the draft on the chance to improve the offense in any tangible way at the skill positions. Considering how stale this group looked last season (even with the atrocious injury luck), that's not encouraging to think about.
ROUTE 4: DON'T MIND IF I DO...
Pick 16: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
Why? Well, I'm a fan of Ridder's game. He's got an excellent blend of size (6-3), athleticism (4.52 in 40-yard dash; 36" vertical) and arm talent (30 touchdown passes as a senior with the Bearcats) that makes his winning pedigree all the more attractive. He's the QB, I believe, with the most potential of the players on the board with the understanding that he'll likely need at least a year sitting behind a veteran in a pro system to achieve it.
There's a knee-jerk reaction that QBs drafted in the first round must start in their rookie season, but it's not exactly difficult to see where patience was a much better scenario. Pat Mahomes was drafted behind Alex Smith and didn't start until his second NFL season, the Chiefs made the playoffs the prior year. Aaron Rodgers was drafted behind Brett Favre and didn't start until his 4th NFL season, the Packers made the NFC Championship the prior year. The same could be said of Trey Lance behind Jimmy Garroppolo with the 49ers in 2021. If you believe in the talent, you can make it work. And while it won't sit kindly with the Jameis Winston hive, you take talent where you can find it -- and Jameis will still get the opportunity to star in the job and never give it back. The Saints would be fine with that outcome, if it means wins and being a title contender.
Pick 19: TRADE! Saints send 19, 49 to Lions for 32, 34 and a 2023 3rd-rounder
I call this the Mike Detillier special, because he's been pounding the idea on SportsTalk the last week and I think it would make a lot of sense IF you're going QB at No. 16. Now, I think you made the trade with the Eagles because to some extent you wanted to add quality players to fill holes right away, but didn't want to be tied into the box of HAVING to go that route, if a player you really like falls to you at your first-round pick.
So, yes, a trade back has entered the chat. I think this move would make sense for Detroit, who picks at No. 2 overall and might see this as an opportunity to add a game-changer on a team that certainly needs one. For the Saints, it'd still retain the flexibility with a second first-round selection (which conveniently carries a 5th-round option), and a premium second-round pick with a lot of time to think things over before having to make the turnaround on Day 2. The Saints obviously have some connections to Detroit, considering former Saints coaches Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn are the head coach and DC, respectively, so there shouldn't be much difficulty getting someone on the horn to hash out a deal.
Related
Some of the top players still available (at positions of need) for the Saints to choose from at Nos. 32 and 34, based on the same mock as above:
- Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
- DeMarvin Leal, DT, Texas A&M
- Travis Jones, DT, UConn
- Daxton Hall, S, Michigan
- Lewis Cine, S, Georgia
- Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State
- Berhhard Raimann, OT, Central Michigan
- Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa
- Daniel Faalele, OT, Minnesota
- Christian Watson, WR, N.D. State
- Skyy Moore, WR, Western Michigan
- George Pickens, WR, Georgia
The list above might not jump off the page, but those are just some of the options still available, and attractive ones at that, for the Saints to choose from in this scenario. If they're seeking to fill needs, Raimann and Pickens would offer clear starting options in Year 1 and Pickens in particular offers mega upside if he can refine his game and bulk up a bit in an NFL system. Wyatt is still on the board if you're looking to bulk up the interior rush (IE the RAS model above), but I'd guess this route would be the one that brought someone in at safety (possibly at 34) with the position still overflowing with talent at this point in the draft.
It'd also represent the third time in recent years the Saints have drafted at No. 32 overall, only one of which came from winning a Super Bowl.
- 2010: Patrick Robinson, CB
- 2017: Ryan Ramczyk, OT
The pros: This route would help solidify the quarterback position and the ability to add quality depth/potential starters at two positions of need.
The cons: This would mean you're likely skipping the chance to add one of the truly top-end pass-catchers of this draft. There are still enticing WR options left on the board, but it'd feel like a missed opportunity with the level of names that were ripe for the picking at 16 or 19. You'd also present the same potentially awkward scenario as it pertains to Jameis Winston that was laid out in Route 2 above.