The New Orleans Saints could have a difficult decision to make if star Georgia tight end Brock Bowers is still on the board at No. 14.
But how difficult would that choice be, really?
That's what we broke down in the latest episode of Inside Black & Gold. Listen to the full segment in the player above. Can't see the embed? Click here.
The real question doesn't even require an in-depth understanding of Bowers as a prospect to answer. He is an elite prospect who will assuredly be picked in the first round. There are few holes in his game. But what about positional value? That's tough to justify, as Eric Eager of SumerSports explained on WWL.
"If you draft a tight end early, he has to be a complete player or he’s considered a bust. ... At tight end you’ve got to be everything, everywhere all at once, right away, and that’s just a hard thing for a player of that stature to be," Eager said. "So it’s just hard and why you’ve seen teams shy away from it and draft tight ends later, and for those guys, because expectations are lower."
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A big issue is the difficulty involved for young tight ends to be productive right away as they attempt to learn the offense, but both as a receiver and an in-line blocker. With later-round picks they're often brought around slowly, and we've seen that development with a majority of the star tight ends like George Kittle (5.146), Mark Andrews (3.86) and Travis Kelce (3.63).
Over the past decade there are more first-round tight ends finding success for a different team than the one that drafted them. Here's that list, dating back to 2010.
- 2023: Dalton Kincaid, Bills, 1.20
- 2021: Kyle Pitts, Falcons, 1.4
- 2019: T.J. Hockenson, Lions, 1.8 (now on Vikings)
- 2019: Noah Fant, Broncos, 1.20 (now on Seahawks)
- 2018: Hayden Hurst, Ravens, 1.25 (now on Chargers)
- 2017: O.J. Howard, Bucs, 1.19 (now a free agent)
- 2017: Evan Engram, Giants, 1.23 (now on Jaguars)
- 2017: David Njoku, Browns, 1.29 (still on Browns)
- 2014: Eric Ebron, Lions, 1.10 (last with Steelers in 2021)
- 2013: Tyler Eifert, Bengals, 1.21 (last with Jaguars in 2020)
- 2010: Jermaine Gresham, Bengals, 1.21 (last with Cardinals in 2018)
If you go as far as 2006 you'll happen upon Greg Olsen (2007, Bears, 1.31) and Vernon Davis (2006, 49ers, 1.6), which would be difficult to criticize, but it still doesn't do much to change the argument. First round picks TE picks are rare (there are only 26 dating back to 2000), and when they are made, it rarely works out for the team spending the pick.
Now, that's all well and good, but what about the Saints? Well, if you look at the matter historically, it doesn't paint a likely picture. Dating back to 2000, the Saints have only made six total tight end picks, and none in the top two rounds.
- 2020: Adam Trautman, 3.105 (now on Broncos)
- 2019: Alize Mack, 7.231 (last with Titans in 2023, now with UFL's San Antonio Brahmas)
- 2010: Jimmy Graham, 3.95 (currently a free agent)
- 2002: John Gilmore, 6.196 (last with Saints in 2011)
- 2000: Austin Wheatley, 5.158 (last with Raiders in 2002)
- 2000: Kevin Houser, 7.228 (last with Ravens in 2010)
In 22 of the past 24 drafts, the Saints have not used a 4th round pick or better to address the position, opting instead to sign free agents like Jeremy Shockey, Benjamin Watson, Coby Fleener and Jared Cook, among others. It's a questionable method, but one that's been consistent.
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Working against the Bowers pick is also the fact that the Saints have only selected a first-round TE once in franchise history, that player being Irv Smith Sr., who was picked 20th overall in 1993. Irv Smith Jr. was a second round pick of the Vikings in 2019 but is now a member of the Kansas City Chiefs.
“It’s just a really hard position," Eager continued. "I think teams are wising up to how hard it is, even for players like Bowers and obviously we saw [Kyle] Pitts, who was as good of a prospect at the position as we’ve ever seen, struggle to get going in Atlanta, as Saints fans know.”
1. First-round tight ends are rare, particularly in the top 15 (just 7 total since 2000). 2. When those picks are made, they rarely work out for the team that made the pick. 3. The current Saints regime has quite literally never drafted a tight end in the first two rounds, and rarely commits much at all in the later rounds.
It all screams unlikely, with the Saints also featuring clear needs at tackle in a draft that's loaded at the position. Still, never say never. The draft starts on April 25 in Detroit, and the Saints pick at No. 14.