Report: '50/50 Chance' Rockies Trade Nolan Arenado

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DALLAS (105.3 The Fan) - The holidays are over and the hot stove is heating back up. 
According to Jon Morosi of the MLB Network, there's "a roughly 50/50 chance" the Colorado Rockies trade star third baseman Nolan Arenado this offseason. Furthermore, Morosi reports the Rockies' preference is to not trade Arenado to another NL West team, notably the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Sources: Nolan Arenado has roughly a 50/50 chance of being traded, with a half-dozen teams having checked in, as I just reported on @MLBNetwork. The #Dodgers are *not* the most likely destination, as #Rockies prefer not to trade Arenado in the division. @MLB

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 2, 2020

Morosi didn't name any of the 'half-dozen teams' who have reportedly checked in on the seven-time gold glove winner, but we already know the Rangers are one of them. 

On Dec. 20, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Rangers want Arenado and had already reached out to the Rockies about a potential deal.  Per Grant, The Rangers have been "intrigued, fascinated, maybe even a little obsessed over Arenado for years."

There are several hurdles to clear for such a deal to take place, however. Just last season, Arenado signed an eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies. The contract allows Arenado to opt-out and re-test the market in two years, which complicates what Texas would offer in the deal. Not to mention the fact that Arenado has a full no-trade clause.

It's been reported that the opt-out wouldn't prevent the Rangers from potentially working out an agreement with Arenado to forego the option. 

Then, the two clubs need to determine how much of the contract the Rangers will take on. 

If those two things can be ironed out, the final hurdle to overcome is what kind of compensation the Rangers have to surrender in the deal. Grant reports that any package from Texas would likely have to include one of Josh Jung, Sam Huff, Cole Winn or Hans Crouse, the club's top four prospects.

The Rockies won just 71 games in 2019, finishing 35 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West. In addition to the Dodgers, there's a real feeling around baseball that the San Diego Padres could take a major step forward in 2020 as well, further complicating the Rockies' path to the postseason for the foreseeable future.

Even if the Rockies aren't ready to seriously weigh offers right now, they may reach a point where they are. So it doesn't hurt to open the lines of communication.

The possibility also exists that Colorado decides not to trade their franchise icon. After all, Arenado is one of the greatest fielding third basemen in baseball history, and has hit over 35 home runs and driven in over 100 runs in five consecutive seasons. Adding him to the Rangers lineup, along with their quality rotation, could push them over the top.