Draft day is finally upon us, and a number of the most plugged-in NFL insiders are still working the phones trying to decipher what is true and what is false.
The final weeks leading up to the draft are often referred to as “lying season” by the media. Teams will often take a savvy approach with the media by telling them a little bit of truth while also sprinkling in some misdirection and deception.
That search for the truth is made all the more difficult this year by a unique draft class that is pretty thin at the top, but extremely deep in the middle and later rounds. There’s a good chance that most of the players picked in the first round tonight don’t even have first-round grades by the team that drafted them. That could even be true of the Cowboys.
In the spirit of searching for the truth, here is some of the buzz I’ve heard that I feel most confident about:
Working The Phones
The Cowboys will be closely monitoring trade up scenarios tonight. There are potentially two windows where I think they could make a deal.
The first window would be picks 12-14. Those picks belong to Minnesota, Houston, and Baltimore. The targets in this range would be Northern Iowa OT Trevon Penning, Mississippi State OT Charles Cross, and USC WR Drake London. If one or more of those players makes it past pick 11, I think the Cowboys start calling to see if picks 24 and 56 are enough to entice one of these teams to go back.
If Penning, Cross, and London are gone by pick 12, or if the Cowboys fail to find a dance partner, I think the next trade window would be 17-20. These picks belong to the Chargers, Eagles, Saints, and Steelers. The price changes here, and I think the Cowboys would be talking about pick 88 to jump up a few spots.
I think this would again be for two offensive linemen and a receiver: Texas A&M OG Kenyon Green, Boston College OG Zion Johnson, and Arkansas WR Treylon Burks.
The thought process behind going up for Green or Johnson is concern that the Chargers at 17, Patriots at 21, and Cardinals at 23 could all be in play for those players. With Burks, there’s a bullseye on the Packers at 22, but there are rumblings that the Titans could leapfrog both the Cowboys and Packers to secure Burks.
The wipeout Scenario
If the Cowboys get completely wiped out on their targets, and are unable to trade out of pick 24, there are a few names worth at least preparing for.
One of these would be Tulsa OT Tyler Smith, who has gained a lot of momentum in the media as the pick at 24. This one seems to have Cowboys fans in a panic on social media today, but I think it’s unlikely Smith ends up with a star on his helmet.
The Cowboys (and the rest of the league for that matter) like Smith, and think better of him than the media and fans do, but there are limits. I think if you asked them if Smith is one of the likelier scenarios they have in play tonight, they would say no. It’s not off the table, but it’s not their expectation.
I think another wipeout scenario could be Nakobe Dean, the linebacker out of Georgia. He’s smaller, and he isn’t a freak show athletically, but he’s incredibly smart, and knows his way around blocks. I think a player like Dean could be intriguing to the Cowboys if they’re out of their primary options.
Stacks and Fits
In some instances the Cowboys may like a player, but might think differently than you’d expect about where they fit.
Boston College OL Zion Johnson is one example of the Cowboys seeing a player differently. The buzz around Johnson is that while the Cowboys believe he could play guard, his best position would be center. Johnson is a highly intelligent player who could be the type of high IQ quarterback of the offensive line that they’ve missed since Travis Frederick’s departure.
There are questions about Johnson’s strength, but I think the Cowboys are less concerned about that at center than they would be at guard.
In terms of where Johnson ranks, I feel confident that the Cowboys have Kenyon Green slightly ahead of him, but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t be willing to jump tags. There are some questions about Green’s right knee, and those concerns (minimal as I think they are for the Cowboys) might just be enough to have them pick Johnson.
We mentioned the possibility of going up and getting Charles Cross or Trevor Penning if one of them is left, but what if they’re both on the board and you can trade up to choose? I believe Dallas would go with Cross. Cross and Penning could both play left or right tackle, and both could step in and start at left guard until Tyron Smith retires, but my understanding is that Cross is above Penning for Dallas.
In The End
The Cowboys believe this draft is extremely deep, and they think they’re in a great spot to get some value with six picks between picks 129 and 193.
The question is at the top of the draft. Do they want to ensure a top-tier player in the first, sacrifice capital on day two, and throw value darts on day three? Or would they prefer to stand in, make their picks, and load up on value across the entire class?
We’ll know soon enough.
