Will lady luck be on the Mavericks' side for the first time ever when the NBA Lottery commences on Tuesday evening in Chicago?
According to CBS Sports, the Mavericks are the second unluckiest franchise in NBA Lottery history, having experienced a -12 net loss in draft positioning since the league introduced the system in 1985.
Of the 16 times Dallas has been in the lottery festivities, they have never moved higher than their projected position and have slipped from their projected position seven times. The only team to experience worse luck in the lottery is the Minnesota Timberwolves (-15), although they've won the lottery twice since 2015.
The Mavs are hoping this is the year their fortunes change, as the prize for winning the first overall pick is French superstar Victor Wembanyama, the most highly-touted draft prospect since LeBron James was selected by the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2003.
Entering the lottery, Dallas has a 13.9.% chance of getting a top-4 pick and a 3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall selection. The likeliest scenario is that Dallas stays at their projected spot and gets the 10th overall pick (65.9%). However, the worst possible outcome of the night has the second-highest odds of coming to fruition, as there is a 20.2% chance that Dallas gets jumped by the Bulls and ends up with the 11th overall pick. If that were to happen, Dallas would lose the pick to the Knicks to complete the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
According to RealGM, there have been four instances in which a team with odds lower than the Mavericks' 3% chance of winning has received the first pick.
1993, Orlando Magic: 1.52% -- Chris Webber
2008, Chicago Bulls: 1.7% -- Derrick Rose
2014, Cleveland Cavaliers: 1.7% -- Andrew Wiggins
2011, Cleveland Cavaliers (via Clippers): 2.8% -- Kyrie Irving
The Mavs have a lot of work to do this offseason to rebound from one of the most disappointing seasons in franchise history, but landing a top-four pick will go a long way toward helping them get right back in the upper echelon of the Western Conference next season.
The ping pong balls have to bounce their way eventually. Is tonight the night? We'll find out when the order is revealed at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN.
