Super Bowl LV features two of the NFL's top quarterbacks with the the Kansas City Chiefs Patrick Mahomes taking on Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are plenty of player props tied to both both quarterbacks that bettors can dive into.
For Mahomes, despite taking home Super Bowl MVP last year versus the San Francisco 49ers, it wasn’t the perfect game from the near-perfect quarterback.
Mahomes was 26-of-42 for 286 yards and tossed two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. He was excellent in the fourth quarter as Kansas City outscored the San Francisco 49ers 21-0 en route to the win, but his numbers didn’t jump off the page.
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What can we expect from Mahomes on Sunday in his quest for a repeat? Let’s break down his main player props to find out.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on Tuesday morning.
Props will continue to be released throughout the week, but here’s a good portion of Mahomes' betting totals:
Passing yards: 325.5 (Over -112/Under -112)
TD Passes: 2.5 (Over -157/Under +126), 3.5 (Over +185/Under -240)
Completions: 28.5 (Over +100/Under -124)
Completion %: 70.5 (Over +118/Under -148)
Pass attempts: 40.5 (Over -125/Under +101)
Throw an interception: YES +145, NO +182
To score: +250
First touchdown: +1800
A few bets jump off the page, all of which involve how I see this game playing out. For starters, over 40.5 pass attempts for Mahomes is a strong bet.
Mahomes averaged just over 39 pass attempts in the regular season, but he threw 49 times in the matchup at Tampa Bay.
Facing the Buccaneers' No. 1 rush defense, I see the Chiefs abandoning the run early. The expectation for this game is that Mahomes’ stat line will look similar to the week 12 figures. He was 37-for-49 for 462 yards and three touchdowns in that game, which would fly over all the totals set for the rematch.
I mentioned the + money prop on Mahomes completions last week in the early prop bets to make article. I'm getting back in on the action with over on his 40.5 pass attempts. He went over that number in nine games this season.
Elsewhere on the card, catching + money for Mahomes to go over 70.5% completion percentage is intriguing. In the regular season, he posted a completion percentage of 66.6%, but in two postseason games, he is up over 73%.
In the first contest, Tyreek Hill had over 200 receiving yards in the first quarter. This was a rare blip from the Bucs secondary who was top five in the league in defending explosive passes.
I see this as the major scheme adjustment from the Tampa defense. The Bucs are going to limit the deep passes to the likes of Hill and funnel Mahomes into throws underneath.
On easier throws, Mahomes should be able to get into a rhythm and complete more than seven out of 10 throws. I like over 70.5% completion percentage.
As for passing yards, it’s hard to go under on any number. Mahomes only went over 325.5 in seven of 17 games this season, but with everything on the line, I expect him to be slinging it all over the yard.
You will be paying a premium on over 325.5 passing yards, but with the way I see the game playing out with a ton of passing and scoring both ways, it’s tough to say no.
Lastly, Mahomes is +250 to score a rushing or receiving touchdown and +1800 to score the first TD. The Chiefs QB is one of the shiftiest runners in the league out of the pocket. Around the goal line, he is even more dangerous.
Mahomes scored the first touchdown in both the Divisional Round game against the Cleveland Browns and last year’s Super Bowl. Around the goal line, Andy Reid likes to give Mahomes the option to use either his arm or legs to score. At +250, I’ll take my chances on him finding pay dirt.
It's tough to bet against Mahomes on the big stage and the sportsbooks will be rooting for him to go under all of this props. However, I expect him to have a big game and hit many of his overs.
Reed is a native of New Jersey and graduate of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is a die-hard Brooklyn Nets fan and always believes the spread has a chance of covering. You can follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach for more commentary