Patrick Mahomes will make his 113th career start when the Kansas City Chiefs play the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship.
The over/under total has closed at 45 or lower only 12 times (10.6%).
As of Tuesday’s NFL odds at BetMGM, the Ravens-Chiefs total is 44.5.
Barring a 1-point increase before 3 p.m. ET, it’ll be the second (of 17 total) playoff starts for Mahomes with a total of 45 or lower. And it’ll be his first such start with a wind chill above minus-27 degrees at kickoff.
For Lamar Jackson, lower totals have been commonplace. Thirty-seven of his 91 career starts (40.7%) had a total at or below 45, including last week against the Houston Texans (44).
In Mahomes’ 12 games, the over is 8-4 (.667).
In Jackson’s 37 games, the over is 17-19-1 (.473).
Jackson’s over percentage is nearly identical to the league-wide rate since 2018; in more than 800 instances over the last six seasons, the over is .474.
The rate is dramatically different in windy games, however. With average wind speed of at least 10 mph during the game, the over hits in only 36.9% of opportunities, approximately 15 percentage points lower than games below 10 mph (51.8%). The current weather forecast for Sunday afternoon in Baltimore includes wind between 12-16 mph.
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