I’m not sure about you, but my Sunday was particularly…stinky. It wasn’t stinky because I lost money. Quite the opposite. But it was stinky because I took the absolute worst teams in the NFL.
The teams whose stench just wafts off your pending wagers from the moment you put them there. The Jets. The Jags. The Bears. Yuck. One of the reasons I bet all of those teams is that in the right spot, those contrarian awful teams can be valuable. You won’t get rich betting them every week (in fact, quite the opposite), but that’s just how Sunday played out. It was stinky.
And it’s no fun to bet the bad teams sometimes. You have to root for Sam Darnold, Mitchell Trubisky, and Mike Glennon. Who wants to do that? It’s an excruciating, horrifying experience, but you know that sometimes you’ll have more money at the end of it.
Well, the first bet this week is a ray of sunshine. A breath of fresh air. A new aroma. It smells sweet. And that’s because a team I’m showing an edge on is…a good team? A great team? What a nice change of pace.
Then the second team stinks again. Sorry.
Last week in this column I gave out the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots. Those two teams were up 66-7...at the half. Here are a couple bets I’ve already put in for this week’s NFL games.
All lines as of Monday evening.
Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions
I like Green Bay in this game at anything under 10. My number in the game is 11.5, and I’m willing to sort-of admit it’s flexible. By “flexible” I mean it’s at least POSSIBLE that Detroit WR Kenny Golladay plays in the game. He is so integral to what makes the Lions tick offensively, and his absence has had a huge impact.
My sense is that we aren’t going to see him the rest of the season after he had a setback in practice a few weeks ago, but he could play. If he does, this number probably drops, but I really don’t think that’s likely. Running back D’Andre Swift is expected to return, but that doesn’t make enough of a difference to my number (again, more than 10) to have a significant impact.
It’s easy to look at the Lions box score and say “wow, the offense looked so much better with Matt Patricia gone! So many points and yards!” The Lions trailed 30-20 with 3 minutes to play in the game, to Mitch Trubisky and a team that’s about to (probably) get rid of their coach and maybe their GM. Down 10 to THAT team.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have absolutely thrived when their hasn’t been inclement weather in their games (they even scored 30 in pretty cold temps this past week) and the Lions are missing so much on defense right now. Chicago was even able to score against them, and the Bears can’t score against anyone. What is Green Bay going to put up in this game? Lay the points with the Pack.
Want more Week 14 NFL winners? Get the data sportsbooks don't want you to know about. Sign up now to find winning bets at BetQL.
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I know, I know. I spent all last week telling you about how bad a coach Anthony Lynn is. We had New England in this space, and that bet won easily. Anthony Lynn against Bill Belichick. It was a colossal coaching mismatch for the ages.
You know who isn’t Bill Belichick? Raheem Morris and this Atlanta coaching staff. Morris and co. have done a great job salvaging their defense to a certain extent, but this isn’t nearly the mismatch, and most importantly, the number/market, we saw last week with Patriots-Chargers.
I don’t really get how the Falcons can be favored, unless the answer is “because the Chargers just lost 45-0.” The Falcons, in their last 3 games, lost twice to Taysom Hill (failing to cover both times) and averaged 4.2 yards-per-play against the Raiders (but won because the Raiders fumbled 4 times). This team is a road favorite in the NFL? My number is LAC -1.5, and I don’t see a reason to doubt it.
Justin Herbert played the worst game of his career Sunday. The Patriots special teams (currently playing like the best unit in the league) did terrible things to them. But NONE of that is really applicable in this game. Raheem Morris doesn’t have the record against rookie quarterbacks that Belichick does, so expect Herbert to rebound on Sunday.
This seems like a healthy overreaction to what we just saw, when in reality, these are just two below-average, evenly matched teams. One really shouldn’t be a road favorite against the other. Take the Chargers getting points at home.
Listen to Ken Barkley Monday-Friday on You Better You Bet and follow him @LockyLockerson.