Chiefs-Dolphins preview: Background on betting on Patrick Mahomes after a loss

USA Today
Chiefs Photo credit USA Today

Since Patrick Mahomes became the Kansas City Chiefs' starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2018 season, the Chiefs have played only 17 Mahomes-started games directly after a Mahomes-started loss.

For example: Mahomes started in Week 2 this season after a Week 1 loss. But in 2019, Mahomes didn’t start in Week 7 after a Week 6 loss.

How have the Chiefs fared at the sportsbook in those 17 games?

Straight up, they’re 14-3 (.824) for an ROI of +17.6%. All three losses came by seven or fewer points:

2018 (Week 16): 38-31 at Seahawks

2019 (Week 6): 31-24 vs. Texans

2021 (Week 3): 30-24 vs. Chargers

Against the spread, they’re 10-7 (.588) for an ROI of +15.3%. Mahomes started his career 2-3 in those spots, but has covered in eight of the last 12 games, including against the Jacksonville Jaguars after losing to the Detroit Lions this season.

Against the first-half moneyline, the Chiefs are 12-5 (.706) for an ROI of +8.8%. They also led at halftime of that Jaguars’ game, their fourth straight first-half moneyline win after dropping three of the previous five in these spots.

Against the first-half spread, they’re 8-8-1 (.500) for an ROI of -5.9%. The Chiefs led at halftime of that Jaguars’ game but didn’t cover -2.5. That broke a three-game first-half ATS winning streak in those opportunities that followed just one ATS win in the previous seven chances (1-6-1) dating back to October 2019.

As of Tuesday’s NFL spreads at BetMGM, the Chiefs are a 2.5-point favorite — and -140 moneyline favorite — for their Week 9 matchup against the Miami Dolphins in Germany.

Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for all Week 9 odds, sportsbook promos, and more.

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