BetQL model: Bears offense is significantly better when this player (non-Justin Fields department) excels


(BetQL) Tailing the BetQL model has netted you a solid profit in Bears games this season while fans of the team have suffered through another tough year. Our model gave the Bears a 35% chance to beat the Packers in Week 13 and they lost, as projected. The data also recommended the Packers as the best bet to cover as 3.5-point favorites, which they did in a 28-19 win.

After yet another loss to the rival Packers, the Bears have a bye week to get ahold of themselves before hosting the Eagles in Week 15. Over the break, they'll look to find a way to stop their current six-game losing streak. Perhaps one of the best ways to do that is to look back at what worked earlier in the season.

Beyond quarterback Justin Fields, the BetQL model shows there’s been one player in particular who has had a significant impact in Chicago's three wins. Running back David Montgomery has averaged 74.0 rushing yards and 0.59 rushing touchdowns in Bears wins and just 49.0 rushing yards and 0.26 touchdowns in Bears losses in 2022.

Chicago needs to get Montgomery going, not only because he can have a huge impact on the outcome with his rushing ability but also because his success means keeping opposing offenses off the field so they can’t take advantage of a poor Bears defense. Run the clock, take the pressure off Fields and keep the opponent sidelined -- it's a formula for success that has been easier said than done.

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