2021 NFC North preview: Key storylines, X-factors & more

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Aaron Rodgers. You may remember that he actually doesn't want to be in Green Bay anymore, and has been quite vocal about going somewhere different. Can the Rodgers-era Packers finally complete their destiny as copycat ‘98 Bulls (without, you know, so many of the championships) team and win one for the road? Can the press conferences get even more awkward? Somehow it seems like the Packers will still find a way to win 10+ games -- or at the very least beat the Bears twice.

Who will be the X-factor?
Rodgers. I’m sure you could make some sort of hipster argument for Davante Adams or David Bakhtiari or Jaire Alexander, but I won’t subject you to that. Someone else will, but I won’t. He’s the reigning MVP and first ballot Hall of Famer at the most important position in football. Let’s not over think this. He’s the X-factor.

The Packers will make the playoffs if... they stay healthy. And quite frankly, they probably make the playoffs even as a banged-up team, as long as Rodgers is playing. The NFC North doesn’t have anyone seriously pushing them for division supremacy yet – Rodgers alone probably makes Green Bay consistent favorites against even full-strength teams in Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit. Advancing in the playoffs, though, is a different challenge entirely.

The Packers will miss the playoffs if... Rodgers misses more than eight games. The rumors and whispers coming out of Green Bay regarding Jordan Love certainly don’t inspire a lot of confidence, and any team that loses an MVP-caliber quarterback probably isn’t getting in. Even if the Packers' defense significantly regresses, they’re going to be able to run with anyone. And to be honest, the Packers’ season this year really starts the second it ends, right?
--Cam Ellis, 670 The Score

Biggest storyline heading into season?
It's when Fields will start at quarterback. Ever since the Bears traded up to No. 11 overall and selected Fields in late April, Chicago has been wondering when it will get to see the prized prospect take the field as the franchise carries renewed hope.

The Bears have turned to veteran Andy Dalton as their starter to open the season, but Fields is solidified as the backup. It might only be a matter of time before he gets his chance this season.

What will be the X-factor?
A reliable running game. Regardless of whether it's Dalton or Fields at quarterback, the Bears need the foundation of a steady running game. Third-year running back David Montgomery committed himself to a dedicated speed program this past offseason, changing his running style and improving his speed.

The Bears also signed veteran Damien Williams, drafted Khalil Herbert in the sixth round and hope to return Tarik Cohen from a torn ACL early in the season. But the Bears must get consistency from their offensive line to open up the rushing attack.

The Bears will make the playoffs if… they can find their dominant form defensively. After ranking as the top defense in the NFL in 2018, the Bears have regressed since. Five of their projected starters are on the wrong side of 30, including top pass rushers Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn. The defense must also replace former All-Pro cornerback Kyle Fuller, who was released in a cap-clearing move in the offseason.

The Bears will miss the playoffs if… their defense doesn't return to its top form. With uncertainty on offense, Chicago needs its defense to be elite.
-- Chris Emma, 670 The Score

Biggest storyline heading into season?
Are the Vikings any good? The NFL is full of teams that could foreseeably win anywhere from 6-11 games, and the Vikings are no exception. Their 0-3 preseason wasn’t exactly filled with inspired performances, but take that for what it’s worth. There’s more than enough talent on the roster to be a playoff-caliber team – there are plenty of winnable games in the NFC North, and the Vikings have an opportunity to take advantage of an easy-ish front half of their schedule.

What will be the X-factor?
The defense. The Vikings were about as injured as any team in football in 2020 (third-most, per Football Outsiders) and still found a way to be a top-20 unit by the end of the year. Getting everyone back plus defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson makes for a deep unit that’s always well-coached by Mike Zimmer. If the Vikings have a top-10 defense, they’ll be a scary team to play.

The Vikings will make the playoffs if... their defense rebounds. Defensive end Everson Griffen isn't close to his peak anymore, but if he can work with Zimmer to carve out a useful role for himself on defense, they’re going to get to a lot of quarterbacks. That’s good news given the questions about their secondary. Quarterback Kirk Cousins, running back Dalvin Cook, and receiver Justin Jefferson are going to put up big numbers on offense – so it’ll be the defense that overachieves if the Vikings make the playoffs this season.

The Vikings will miss the playoffs if... the pass rush stays mediocre, a weak secondary is exposed, the defense shows its age and Fields starts for the Bears before Week 6. Also, if another video of a Vikings skill player losing it over a Cousins overthrow goes viral and teams start putting Jefferson in triple coverage. If Kellen Mond gets a surprise start after a poor performance from Cousins on national television, that’s a wrap on 2021.
--Cam Ellis, 670 The Score

Biggest storyline heading into season?
What’s the Dan Campbell effect? The Lions' new head coach has made all kinds of headlines this offseason with zany quotes -- and overzealous coffee orders. And he has thrust some life into a team that needed it. Now we start keeping score. The Lions will undoubtedly play hard for Campbell and his staff of former players. Question is, does Campbell have the game-planning and coaching acumen to make up for his team's lack of talent?

Who will be the X-factor?
Pretty simple on offense: Jared Goff. Is he the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback who led the Rams to the Super Bowl in 2018 or the one with a sub-90.0 passer rating since 2019 who was shipped out of town by Rams coach Sean McVay? On defense, the Lions have to generate a pass rush to help the youngest group of cornerbacks in the NFL.

The Lions will make the playoffs if... the rest of the division implodes? If you believe Goff, the Lions can win the NFC North. Here’s how it could happen: Goff plays like a Pro Bowler behind an offensive line that fulfills it potential, T.J. Hockenson recreates Calvin Johnson as a tight end, D’Andre Swift fuels a top-10 ground game that recalls the days of Barry Sanders and a deep defensive line dominates up front to protect a vulnerable secondary. And the Lions win every close game they play.

The Lions will miss the playoffs if... the defense looks anything like the 2020 outfit that finished last in the NFL and the offense falls short of the Greatest Show on Turf.
-- Will Burchfield, 97.1 The Ticket