(AUDACY) In 99 out of 100 cases, it's way too early after just one season to label anyone a bust or proclaim that one NFL team irreversibly screwed up with its crop of new players. However, it can be much easier to tell that will be the case in some situations than in others.
We can't really say yet that's the case for quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, who were selected with back-to-back selections in the 2020 NFL Draft. Of course, the statistics will tell you one story. Tagovailoa had 1,814 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions for the Dolphins as a rookie in 2020, while Herbert had 4,336 yards, 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions for the Chargers. But does that mean the Dolphins made an undeniable mistake by taking Tagovailoa instead of Herbert with their No. 5 pick? Maybe that will become the case, but we really can't say for certain at this point. As sports fans, we're quick to jump to conclusions, and that's half the fun of sports debates. But we need to remember that some decisions just take time to play out in full, and overreactions in front offices could lead to even more mistakes being made.
Only time tells us the answers, as was the case for these 25 NFL Draft mistakes that teams probably regret more than they're willing to let on. And yes, there are some obvious slip-ups that you'll notice aren't in here. Where's JaMarcus Russell? He's not on here, because there weren't any other quarterback prospects that year who were likely candidates at No. 1 overall and who far outperformed Russell. It was just a bad year to select a quarterback at the top of the draft. Instead, these 25 draft gaffes (draffes?) below occurred when a team chose one player at a certain position over another at the same position who came off the board a little bit later -- and the drastic difference in production now is just too much to ignore.
All statistics and draft information retrieved from Pro Football Reference.
Worst of the worst
In hindsight, it's hard to believe that Patrick Mahomes (left) was behind Mitchell Trubisky on the majority of draft boards.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images
2003: Detroit Lions select WR Charles Rogers (No. 2) over WR Andre Johnson (No. 3)
You can't blame Detroit for selecting Rogers, seeing as he absolutely tore up the Big Ten with two seasons of 1,300-plus yards and double-digit touchdowns. He was as talented as any player on the draft board, and seeing as the 2002 Lions didn't have a receiver exceed 600 yards, Rogers looked to be a perfect fit. But he only appeared in 15 games over three seasons for the Lions, with unfortunate injuries and off-field issues cutting his career short, while Johnson became one of the greatest wide receivers of this generation. Johnson finished his career with seven Pro Bowls, two first-team All-Pro selections and the 11th-most receptions and receiving yards in league history. Rogers passed away in 2019 from liver failure, and former Lions general manager Matt Millen said that he will always remember Rogers as "a great kid with a good heart with a lot of skills, that mismanaged some things."
2017: Chicago Bears select QB Mitch Trubisky (No. 2) over QB Patrick Mahomes (No. 10) and QB Deshaun Watson (No. 12)
In Trubisky, the Bears went with the individual whom many considered the top quarterback of the draft class, and that was clearly the position they were gunning to address. But they sacrificed a decent amount in order to move up one spot to No. 2 overall, and they ultimately took a player who has his fair share of question marks. It's not like Mahomes and Watson didn't also have question marks — Watson's career may now also be in jeopardy after he has been accused of sexual assault — but in hindsight, this one is just painful for the Bears fan base to stomach. Trubisky is now the backup to Bills star quarterback Josh Allen, who's a part of our next mistake on the list.
2018: New York Jets select QB Sam Darnold (No. 3) over QB Josh Allen (No. 7)
Darnold was a legitimate candidate to go No. 1 overall, as was Allen, at least according to analysts like Mel Kiper. Now, Darnold is at the helm of the Carolina Panthers offense as he looks for a fresh start in his career, Allen is a top-tier quarterback with what seems to be perennial MVP potential and the Jets are back to the quarterback drawing board. Hopefully, Zach Wilson — who seems to be a lock to go to the Jets at No. 2 overall — turns out a little better than the Darnold experiment in New York.
2019: Philadelphia Eagles select WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (No. 57) over WR D.K. Metcalf (No. 64)
Though the Eagles happen to be the team that gets made out as the biggest offender here, you can see from Metcalf's draft position that there were several other teams that mistakenly passed over him. The Chiefs could have paired Metcalf with Mahomes but chose Mecole Hardman (No. 56). The Colts could have given T.Y. Hilton a bulkier counterpart but chose Parris Campbell (No. 59). The Cardinals could have had Larry Fitzgerald and D.K. Metcalf catching passes from 2019 No. 1 overall pick Kyler Murray, thus likely removing the need for their great DeAndre Hopkins trade, but instead went with Andy Isabella (No. 62). And perhaps Carson Wentz wouldn't have struggled so much with Metcalf in town, as opposed to Arcega-Whiteside and his 14 career catches.
Backfield blunders
Eric Shelton (left) and Frank Gore had drastically different NFL careers.
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images and Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
2000: New York Giants select RB Ron Dayne (No. 11) over RB Shaun Alexander (No. 19)
One of these guys was a three-time Pro Bowler, an MVP, a member of the Hall of Fame all-2000s team and on the cover of Madden. The other wasn't. Any guesses? Coincidentally, the one without all those accolades — Dayne — still has the record for the most rushing yards all time in NCAA Division-I history.
2005: Carolina Panthers select RB Eric Shelton (No. 54) over RB Frank Gore (No. 65)
On the one hand, you have a short-lived running back in Shelton, who received a total of eight carries throughout his NFL career. On the other hand, you have someone who received at least eight carries in 219 career regular-season games and in nine playoff games. Who knows — had the Panthers drafted Gore here, they may have held on to him for even longer than the 49ers did, and does that mean they would never have taken Christian McCaffrey? Everything happens for a reason, I guess.
2008: Dallas Cowboys select RB Felix Jones (No. 22) and Pittsburgh Steelers select RB Rashard Mendenhall (No. 23) over RB Chris Johnson (No. 24)
Speed isn't everything, and it certainly isn't an indicator of definite NFL success. Just take a look at some of these names. But for running backs in the 2008 NFL Draft, speed turned out to be a pretty important factor in determining the career of one of these backs — the one who went latest in the first round. It's not that Jones and Mendenhall were bad, but neither of them, you know, recorded 2,000 yards in a season or recorded six straight 1,000-yard seasons out of the gate.
Wrong receiver
Imagine if Tom Brady had been able to play with a young A.J. Brown (right) in his final year with the Patriots instead of N'Keal Harry.
Harry How/Getty Images and Frederick Breedon/Getty Images
2000: Cincinnati Bengals select WR Peter Warrick (No. 4) over WR Plaxico Burress (No. 8)
The first round of the 2000 NFL Draft turned out to be a pretty difficult one in terms of finding generational talents at wide receiver. However, Burress recorded more than 1,000 receiving yards in four different seasons and would've given the Bengals much more of an upgrade than Warrick, whose single-season high was 819 receiving yards.
2003: Washington Football Team selects WR Taylor Jacobs (No. 44) and New England Patriots select WR Bethel Johnson (No. 45) over WR Anquan Boldin (No. 54)
In one of many attempts in the quest to find Tom Brady a top-tier wide receiver through the draft, the Patriots had a really good opportunity in 2003. Anquan Boldin and the 14th-most receiving yards of all time were just sitting there, waiting to be selected, but to no avail. Jacobs and Johnson combined for 990 career receiving yards, a number that Boldin exceeded in seven different seasons.
2008: Cincinnati Bengals select WR Jerome Simpson (No. 46) over WR DeSean Jackson (No. 49)
Simpson has exactly one advantage over Jackson throughout his NFL career: cool flips. But other than that, Jackson has been the elite deep threat whom any team would salivate over, especially with Carson Palmer's arm strength at a young age. What a fun combo that would have been — though it's hard to get more fun than the eventual Michael Vick-Jackson tandem that captured Philly's hearts for a brief spell.
2010: Cincinnati Bengals select TE Jermaine Gresham (No. 21) over TE Rob Gronkowski (No. 42)
Sure, the discrepancy between these two draft selections is far larger than the others on this list. However, these were the first two tight ends off the board, and it seems as though there was a real possibility that Gronkowski was the potential pick for Cincinnati. Former ESPN reporter Coley Harvey wrote that the Bengals were likely "salivating" as they entered a draft with names like Gresham, Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, but they definitely could've gone with a better choice here.
2012: New York Jets select WR Stephen Hill (No. 43) over WR Alshon Jeffery (No. 45)
Greg McElroy, who started a game at quarterback for the 2012 Jets, said that he told Mark Sanchez, "If (Alshon Jeffery's) there in the second round and we don't take him, we're nuts." The Jets, apparently, were nuts. Hill finished his career in New York after just two seasons and 594 receiving yards. Jeffery, who may not have too much time left in the NFL, is just shy of 7,000 receiving yards at this point and has both a Pro Bowl and a Super Bowl ring on his resume.
2013: San Francisco 49ers select TE Vance McDonald (No. 55) over TE Travis Kelce (No. 63)
The 49ers have more than made up for this one, thanks to one of the greatest draft selections in recent history that would never have happened had Kelce gone to San Francisco in the 2013 draft. McDonald was serviceable but had his best season in Pittsburgh. Kelce is potentially the most dangerous receiving weapon in the entire NFL. But he may not be the best all-around tight end, if only because 49ers 2017 fifth-round pick George Kittle can claim that label for himself.
2014: Philadelphia Eagles select WR Jordan Matthews (No. 42) and Seattle Seahawks select WR Paul Richardson (No. 45) over WRs Davante Adams (No. 53), Allen Robinson (No. 61) and Jarvis Landry (No. 63)
This one's a little bit confusing, but the basic idea is that three elite wide receivers went at the end of the second round, whereas two less-than-stellar pass-catchers were selected earlier. Matthews' career started out on a bright note in Philadelphia, with a combined 1,869 yards and 16 touchdowns over his first two seasons. However, he struggled to stay healthy and hold onto a job, most recently failing to record a catch in two games as a 49er in 2020. Richardson never quite panned out in Seattle, signed a sizable contract in Washington and was released after the 2019 season. As for the other three names ... well, they don't need much explaining.
2019: New England Patriots select N'Keal Harry (No. 32) over WR Deebo Samuel (No. 36) and WR A.J. Brown (No. 51)
I could also have included Metcalf in here but, so as to not sound like a broken record, I went with two other receivers who seem to hold a lot more promise at this point than Harry, who has 415 yards and four touchdowns through two seasons -- with no guarantee that he has more time left to make a statement in New England. Meanwhile, Samuel finished with nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and Brown has already earned a Pro Bowl selection as one of the game's most explosive targets.
2020: Philadelphia Eagles select WR Jalen Reagor (No. 21) over WR Justin Jefferson (No. 22)
Again, it's too early to say that Reagor won't become a great NFL wide receiver. Philadelphia's quarterback play was anything but reliable last season, and there aren't really any takeaways that can be gleaned from the sample size that was 2020. But what we can say with a high degree of confidence is that Jefferson will be an elite wideout for quite some time, going for 1,400 yards as a rookie and proving the Eagles wrong when they went against nearly every mock draft and big board out there to select Reagor first.
Trouble in the trenches
The Jaguars probably regret their choice of offensive tackle at the top of the 2013 NFL Draft.
Al Bello/Getty Images
2002: Arizona Cardinals selected DT Wendell Bryant (No. 12) over DT Albert Haynesworth (No. 15)
Bryant's NFL career came to an end after just the 2004 season due to repeated violations against the league's substance abuse policy, and he was never all that effective even when he was on the field. Haynesworth may best be remembered now as a failed free agent signing by Washington, but he was a dominant defensive presence at one point, picking up two straight Pro Bowls and first-team All-Pro selections for the Titans before he moved on.
2003: New Orleans Saints select DT Johnathan Sullivan (No. 6) over DT Kevin Williams (No. 9)
Sullivan recorded just 1.5 sacks in his three-year NFL career, all with the Saints, before he was traded for fellow draft mistake Bethel Johnson. Williams had 10 games where he recorded at least 1.5 sacks, with six Pro Bowls and five first-team All-Pro selections in his dominant career with the Vikings.
2012: Chicago Bears select DE Shea McClellin (No. 19) over DE Chandler Jones (No. 21)
McClellin actually won a Super Bowl ... with the Patriots in 2016, though that would be the last season he ended up playing due to injury issues and his release from the Patriots after he was on injured reserve for the entirety of the 2017 season. Jones also won a Super Bowl in New England, though he took another leap when he moved to Arizona and recorded four straight double-digit sack seasons, including a league-high 17 in 2017 and 19 in 2019.
2013: Jacksonville Jaguars select OT Luke Joeckel (No. 2) over OT Lane Johnson (No. 4)
The top of the 2013 draft board wasn't the sexiest in the world — all of the top-five picks were situated on either the offensive or defensive line, with two more guards taken later in the top 10 — but there were definitely studs and duds. Studs included Eric Fisher (No. 1) and Johnson, both of whom have numerous Pro Bowl appearances. Duds included Joeckel and Dion Jordan (No. 3), with Joeckel playing in only four seasons with the Jaguars and one more with the Seahawks before his career was over.
Defensive debacles
Marcus Peters (right) dominated the NFL from the start of his career, unlike Kevin Johnson.
Scott Halleran/Getty Images and Jamie Squire/Getty Images
2009: San Diego Chargers select LB Larry English (No. 16) over LB Clay Matthews (No. 26)
The Packers would ultimately cement their defense for some time with selections of B.J. Raji (No. 9) and Clay Matthews in the first round, though Matthews was clearly the gem of the draft. Six Pro Bowl appearances later, the Chargers probably wish they had gone with the player whom Ross Tucker said was the "best combo pass rusher-pass defender available" as opposed to English, who had a forgettable NFL career.
2014: Cleveland Browns select CB Justin Gilbert (No. 8) over CB Kyle Fuller (No. 14)
It's never good when your former top-10 pick is traded for a sixth-round pick just two years after he was drafted. But that was the case with Gilbert, who probably wasn't even worth a sixth-round pick when it was all said and done and he played his final game in 2016 before getting suspended. Fuller, on the other hand, is a two-time Pro Bowler who also led the league in both passes defended and interceptions in his All-Pro campaign in 2018.
2015: Houston Texans select CB Kevin Johnson (No. 16) over CB Marcus Peters (No. 18)
Despite having cornerbacks Kareem Jackson, Jonathan Joseph and A.J. Bouye on the roster, the Texans decided to go with Johnson as an upgrade to their secondary. He got an opportunity to start almost right away, then saw that role slip from his fingers as he just wasn't all that productive. The opposite was true of Peters, who led the NFL in interceptions and passes defended as a rookie, was a first-team All-Pro selection in his second year and has continually been one of the best cornerbacks the league has to offer ever since his debut.
2017: Las Vegas Raiders select CB Gareon Conley (No. 24) over CB Tre'Davious White (No. 27)
The Bills have boasted a top-10 defense in recent years, and White's ability to take receivers out of the game is a big part of that. In fact, it's something that the Raiders could really use in their secondary, seeing as they've been among the worst pass defenses in every season since 2017. Conley was eventually traded in the middle of the 2019 season. He didn't play for the Texans in 2020.
2017: Miami Dolphins select LB Charles Harris (No. 22) over LB T.J. Watt
Did watching J.J. Watt teach the Dolphins nothing? Of course, you can't rely on that as your primary reasoning for draft decisions, but it might have been a good rule of thumb in this situation. Harris was traded to the Falcons for a seventh-round pick prior to the 2020 season, showing you just how much value they thought he had. Alternatively, Watt might be even better than his big bro, picking up two first-team All-Pro nods in the past two seasons and leading the league in both sacks and tackles for loss in 2020.
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