Unlike the previous drafts, teams on the hunt for a franchise-type quarterback are disappointed with the cache of talent placed in front of them. With teams having this endless fascination with the position, those with needs are certain to overvalue those placed in front of them on their draft boards.
Most scouts seem to agree that at least three, possibly four signal-callers will hear the call during the first day of the draft. The second and third rounds will find organizations that are looking for young depth to start examining the prospects in front of them, while the final day of draft proceedings could see pure athletes like Penn State's Trace McSorley and North Dakota State's Easton Stick garner attention, even though they might be evaluated more so for a potential position switch while also adding depth behind center.
While our staff is not high on the current "golden child" at the quarterback spot - Kyler Murray - it appears that the Cardinals, owners of the top overall pick, might be finalizing their decision to yet again dip into the quarterback pool. Obvious needs for a pass rusher could have them opt for Ohio State's Nick Bosa, but with the new coaching staff fawning over the small Sooners quarterback, this could create a very intense training camp.
Currently, Josh Rosen, the tenth pick in the 2018 draft, is, as GM Steve Keim stated, "the Cardinals' quarterback, right now." With such a statement, is it any wonder the insecure quarterback recently took any mention of Arizona off his social media pages? It is unlikely the team will hold on to both youngsters, if they draft Murray, but the Cards could be in a Pittsburgh-Antonio Brown situation if they do not act quickly and trade away Rosen while he still has at least a second round value. Waiting until draft day to make that move could see the offers from teams end up being no more than a third round pick in return.
Murray will also be joined by West Virginia's Will Grier in representing the Big Twelve Conference's gifts to the NFL at the quarterback position. Grier was the darling of scouts before the season, but he did struggle some down the stretch and then bailed on his team by deciding not to play in their bowl game. Despite finishing fourth in the voting for the Heisman Trophy and completing 67% of his passes, the senior had very unimpressive Senior Bowl and Combine performances that could see the former University of Florida recruit slip into the end of the fourth round/early fifth round picture, as scouts feel he has just average arm strength
The Big Ten Conference will also feature a Top Ten draft selection at the quarterback position. Even though Dwayne Haskins had only one season as a starter for Ohio State, he has the Giants picturing him as the eventual replacement for Eli Manning. Plans are for New York to exercise their sixth overall pick to take the Buckeye, but with Jacksonville also coveting Haskins, one of those two teams could be enticed by the New York Jets to leap-frog to pick #3 and take Haskins before the other organization.
If he ends up in the Big Apple, expect the rookie to go the Patrick Mahomes route and learn from the bench in 2019. Another impressive athlete in the Big Ten is Northwestern's Clayton Thorson, but scouts see him more as a Drew Stanton type - possibly compete as a stop-gap starter down the road, but likely to be a Day Three selection who plies his wares holding a clipboard during his professional career.
The wild card out of the Big Ten is a possible "Swiss Army knife" signal-caller, Penn State's Trace McSorley. The Nittany Lion might be height challenged and scouts do question his long ball accuracy, but he is the best pure athlete in the quarterback class. Actually, that could be a good thing on his resume, as both New England and New Orleans envision him competed for a reserve quarterback spot, but might see what he can do as a Julian Edelman-like receiver conversion or follow the Nolan Cromwell (ex-Rams) trail and end up on the defensive side of the ball as a safety.
Even though Murray and Haskins have solidified Top Ten status, they could be joined in that group by Missouri's Drew Lock. If Jacksonville fails to reach an agreement with Nick Foles (Eagles passes has a high asking price), the Jaguars could make a run at this Tiger. Even if Foles joins the organization, the front office might still want to bring a young arm on to the roster.
Lock completed 61 percent of his passes (275-of-437) for 3,498 yards, 28 touchdowns and eight interceptions while running for six scores, but saw his receivers drop 27 balls last year. If they snared all those attempts, Lock would boast a pass completion percentage of .691. Denver, before they traded for Joe Flacco, seemed intent on moving up in the draft to take the Missouri product. Still, we see John Elway making this move if Lock is there with the tenth pick. As for The NFL Draft Report? Lock is our projection for being the most productive pro passer to come out of the 2019 draft class.
The Southeastern Conference should see two of their signal-callers be selected before the draft's second day is concluded. Auburn's Jarrett Stidham was the "Drew Lock" version at the Senior Bowl, with Lock being the most impressive quarterback in Mobile and Stidham giving him a very close battle for that title. Most teams expected the Auburn Tiger to return to school in 2019, as he had a very inconsistent performance before impressing brass as the best quarterback of a poor four-man contingent on the South squad.
Stidham had just average size at 6:02, 210 pounds, but has been clocked in the 4.65 range. He has thrown for 36 touchdowns vs. eleven interceptions the last two years, but his accuracy suffered in 2018, completing 224-of-369 tosses for 2,794 yards. While some scouts have tagged him as a second day project, his production numbers and average size might be more in tune for a third day selection.
While he won't be the answer for his father's desire to replace Eli Manning as the Giants quarter-back, their head coach has to be impressed with Vanderbilt's Kyle Shurmur, the third-best passing prospect coming out of the Southeastern Conference this year. Flying under the radar for most of his career, he put together one of the finest seasons ever by a Commodore quarterback in his fourth and final season. In doing so, he also became Vanderbilt's all-time leader in virtually every passing category.
As a senior, Shurmur completed 62.6 percent of passes as a 13-game starter season (254-of-406) for 3,130 yards and 24 touchdowns, as his passing yardage, completion percentage and total completions this year represent single-season career highs. In SEC-only game, Shurmur threw 15 touchdowns, second most in the league and just three interceptions, second fewest in the league. Most feel that his performance this year warrants attention during the later stages of the draft.
The state of Mississippi will send two quarterbacks to a pro training camp, but whether either is drafted, will depend on a team liking Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald and Ole Miss' Jordan Ta'Amu during the late rounds.
Two years ago, Fitzgerald came with the next "Brett Favre" tag, as he was hailed for his athleticism and running ability. Unfortunately his arm, most notably his accuracy, failed to reach the level that his feet produced, especially in 2018. Last season, he hit on just 51.6 percent of his attempts (145-of-281) for 1,767 yards, sixteen touchdowns and nine interceptions, adding twelve more scores on the ground. His lack of ability as a pocket passer, combined with 4.74 speed, 6:05 height and 230 pounds might see him have to make the switch to a motion tight end position at the next level.
Jordan Ta'amu-Perifanos was a standout prep performer in Hawaii, but after he did not receive any major college offers, he ventured to the mainland, where he would throw for 3,014 yards and 32 touchdowns while also rushing for 328 yards and seven touchdowns at New Mexico Military Academy. He appeared in seven games for the Rebels in 2017 before taking over the helm for Ole Miss in 2018. Last season, he hit on 63.6 percent of his passes for 3,918 yards, nineteen touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has a cannon for an arm, but fails to recognize blitzes and coverage, making him more as a candidate for the AAF than the NFL.
The Atlantic Coast Conference loses two quarterback to the NFL in this draft. Duke's Daniel Jones was the player most quarterback-needy teams were hoping to see perform well in Mobile, but the Blue Devil was inconsistent all week, as Missouri's Drew Lock moved well ahead of Jones on the pecking order during practices. In three years at the university, the two-time team captain has started all 36 games he appeared in, as he completed 764-of-1,275 (.599) passes for 8,201 yards with 52 touchdowns and 29 interceptions. He posted a career pass efficiency rating of 122.86 and rushed 406 times for 1,323 yards (3.26) and 17 more scores.
Once the projected future New York Giants quarterback, Jones saw those chances dim with not only his lack of eye-opening performances in Mobile, but also on game films. His lower body frame does not match his upper body development and he seems to get locked in on his primary target too often, resulting in big hits in the pocket, as he takes too long through his reads, despite operating in a play-action scheme. He puts good zip behind his tosses, but will frustrate his coach, as all too often he throws into tight windows.
Teams looking for a "safer bet" at quarterback have seen North Carolina State's Ryan Finley quietly inch up the quarterback rating charts. Some think that he might be the perfect fit to one day replace a former Wolfpack quarterback currently performing for the Chargers - Philip Rivers. In fact, Finley ranks second in school history only to Rivers, in career passing yards with 10,501. That is the third-best mark in Atlantic Coast Conference history, while his 272.8 passing yards per game ranks fourth in the ACC career record books.
A rare sixth-year performer, Finley began his college tenure at Boise State, but he graduated in 2015 and then enrolled at N.C. State. He is only the second quarterback in school history to post three 3,000+ yard seasons (Rivers had three in his four-year career) and the fifth in ACC history. He showed at the Senior Bowl that he is and excellent pocket passer with more than enough zip to get the ball out quickly vs. the blitz. He knows how to hit his receivers in stride and is effective throwing on the move. Still, concerns are due to his lack of arm strength and his penchant for throwing into traffic when trying to go deep (eleven interceptions in 2018).
The state of Washington provides the Pac-12 Conference with a pair of late round/free agent passers in Washington State's Gardner Minshew and Washington's Dave Browning. After a 2018 draft that featured Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen, it is quite a letdown, at least talent-wise, for the league after they saw two first rounders join the NFL last year.
Minshew was a seldom-used signal-caller at East Carolina, but the post-graduate transfer instantly became a fan favorite after his arrival in Pullman. He originally was heading for Alabama as their third-string quarterback before Cougars coach Mike Leach "intercepted" him. He would go on to earn Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award honors and was a finalist for the Walter Camp Player of the Year and Davey O’Brien Award (nation’s top quarterback). The league's Offensive Player of the Year set school and Pac-12 records with 4,779 yards passing and 468 completions. He was second in the nation in total offense (376.8), fourth in touchdown passes (38) and third in completion percentage (70.7%).
Minshew did have nine passes intercepted and another 33 deflected, but his quick release and ability to make his progression reads in an instant was what earned him most of his success. Confidence built during his lone campaign as a starter and he was not afraid to run with the ball when flushed out of the pocket, resulting in four scoring runs. What will cause him to wait until the third day of the draft (or possibly as a free agent) is that he is more of a dink-&-dunk passer with little arm strength for the long distance game.
Browning might have to go the free agent route, as he appeared to still having lingering shoulder issues from 2017 affecting his performance last season. More a game manager than field leader, he has decent accuracy and good footwork dropping back from center, but his unimpressive frame is prone to injuries and when he has to throw deep, his ball tends to hang and flutter, giving defensive backs the chance to get under his throws and create damage in the open field.
Many feel that Buffalo's Tyree Jackson has one sensational arm, but they wonder if he will ever be able to grasp a complicated playbook. He was chastised at the Scouting Combine for trying to "create holes" in his receivers' hands. Some scouts even feel that this tall, lanky athlete with 4.59 speed might be better converting to tight end at the pro level, much like what the Bill's Logan Thomas had to endure after a failed quarterback experiment with the Cardinals.
Jackson is the first player in school history to be named Mid-American Conference Offensive Player of the Year after he threw for 3,131 yards and 28 touchdowns (second-best in school history) on the season. He also had seven rushing touchdowns on the year. Like Colin Kaepernick, Jackson will be drafted during Day Two because of his very strong arm. The big thing a team has to show is patience, as he showed in Mobile that he can be frustrating when he goes through those long stretches of inaccuracy. For all of his arm strength, his long ball is suspect, as that ball seems to lack ideal trajectory.Boise State's Brett Rypien first broke most of Kellen Moore's high school state records before knocking Moore off a few perches at BSU. He finished his career as the Mountain West Conference's all-time leader in passing yards (13,581), completions (1,036), and 300-yard passing games (21). He is also Boise State's all-time leader in 300-yard games, having passed Moore (2008-11) to rank second all-time at Boise State in passing yards, completions, attempts (1,618).
A Chase Daniel's type who lacks great size, is not really mobile and despite his impressive numbers, lacks arm strength, Rypien is what coaches call a game manager. He can drop back in the pocket and once he gets in a rhythm, he hits his receivers in stride and plays with good anticipation. He does have ball security issues and lacks touch to fire into tight windows. While he looks like a West Coast type, his lack of mobility could see him have to work for a roster spot as a priority free agent.
Two small college standouts have emerged, with Carson Wentz's replacement at North Dakota State, Easton Stick, a strong Day Three possibility to back up his former teammate in Philadelphia next year. While he lacks Wentz's arm strength, he's a strong runner with good elusiveness and with the success the Saints had moving Tayson Hill to a variety of roles last year, could Stick be that version of a Swiss Army knife?
Here at the staff offices, we love the Rip Van Winkle types, the total unknowns who suddenly capture one's attention. Such is the case for Central Connecticut's Jacob Dolegala, who has been hidden in the FCS ranks while playing for a team where the offensive game plan is to run, run often. His numbers will not knock your socks off, as he's gained 8,129 yards on 654-of-1,136 passes (57.6%) with 48 touchdowns vs. 29 interceptions, but he's also scored eighteen times on the ground and his surprising mobility at 6:06, 235 has resulted in him getting sacked just eight times in the last two seasons after getting dropped 43 times during his first 22 games as a collegian.
Dolegala is an imposing figure rolling out of the pocket. He has good speed and excellent power to run through arm tackles, but won’t win foot races in the open field. He makes, quick, accurate throws on the move and shows nimble feet stepping up in the pocket and eluding the pass rush. He is more suited as a pocket passer, even though he has the footwork to make plays from either outside hash. He won’t scare anyone with his foot speed, but moves athletically in the pocket, showing good change of direction agility and body control when sliding to avoid, or in space, when exiting the pocket on a scramble.
NFL draft analysis provided exclusively to 92-9 The Game courtesy of The NFL Draft Report...
