The more things change, the more they stay the same. And for the Atlanta Braves, the saying holds true regarding Bryce Harper’s move to the Philadelphia Phillies. The signing — a massive 13-year, $330 million contract the likes of which the league has never seen — is a disruptor. It sets a new precedent and will change the course of future negotiations that ballclubs have not just with free agents, but their own players they want to extend as well.
But on the field, things will continue as they always have for Atlanta and Harper. Though he’s changed teams, the left-handed slugger remains in the Braves’ NL East division, meaning the Braves will see him up to 19 times this season, just as they did when Harper was in a Washington Nationals uniform. This isn’t great for the Braves, as Harper has historically produced well against Atlanta. Last season, Braves pitchers put Harper on first at over a .400 clip, and the right fielder had more home runs off Braves pitching than any other team in baseball. But again, this is very much normal.
What Harper’s signing does indeed change is the pecking order in the National League East. The Phillies are now without a doubt the favorites in what is shaping up to be the Toughest Division In Baseball™ and are bona fide contenders for a World Series title. One could have made the argument that the Phillies, with the signing of JT Realmuto, were already in that stratosphere. I said at the time that I disagreed with that sentiment, and only liked the Realmuto deal for the Phillies if it was part of a parlay for Harper. Well guess what? Here we are. The strength of the division won’t help any of its teams in claiming a place in the Wild Card game either. These teams — the Phillies, Braves, Mets and Nationals (sorry Marlins) — are destined to beat up on each other and suppress the win totals overall.
How Harper’s signing affects the Braves’ strategy off the field is, in my opinion, far more interesting. The sheer terms of the deal, less about the $330 million and more about the staggering 13-year figure, are fascinating and run counter to Atlanta’s recent strategy. The Braves are only on the hook for two guaranteed contracts past this season (there are several more with team options in 2020). This is not the place or time to get bogged down in the reasons why the Braves have pursued this strategy, but regardless, the Harper deal strikes a stark contrast.
The terms of the Harper deal also set an obvious precedent for front offices around the league. The Braves were surely already doing some pre-planning and forecasting on what it will look like to lock up players like Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies down the line, and it’d be interesting to know if their projections on the potential costs of those moves have changed. It also affects the outlook for a player like Josh Donaldson, who the Braves signed as a free agent for only a single year. If he performs well and shows that his injury setbacks are behind him, the former MVP could be in for a similarly gargantuan deal.
The Phillies have put their sails to the mast this offseason, storms be damned. The move could pay off in a big way, or it could blow up in their faces. Hell, this contract is so long there’s a high probability of both. And there’s no doubt that the shockwaves will be felt in Atlanta and around baseball for quite some time.
