We've finally arrived. The College Football Playoff kicks off on New Year’s Day with a double header that will set the table for the National Championship.
Alabama enters the semifinals as the largest favorite in CFP history, while Ohio State is looking for revenge after losing a heartbreaker in the semifinals last year to Trevor Lawrence and Clemson.
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*All odds courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook on Tuesday
Rose Bowl - Alabama (-19.5, 65.5) vs. Notre Dame
No one has been able to challenge Alabama yet. Paced by a historic offense that features three of the four Heisman Trophy finalists, the Tide have been able to put up at least 40 points in every game except for its first.
While Bama’s defense is far from its best in recent years, the offense has made it a moot point.
Quarterback Mac Jones is completing more than 76% of his passes with 32 touchdowns to four interceptions. In most years, Jones would have the Heisman all but wrapped up at this point, but his favorite target, Devonta Smith, is the current favorite. Smith leads the country in receptions (98) and receiving yards (1,511) while also producing 19 total touchdowns.
The Irish have seen strong offenses this season in the ACC, notably North Carolina and Clemson -- once without Lawrence, another with him. Notre Dame struggled with Clemson both times, allowing 40 points in a win and 34 in the loss. However, the Irish D was able to slow down the potent UNC offense in the second half, shutting out the Heels.
For Notre Dame to stay within the massive number, the team is going to need to control the clock by way of its running game to limit the amount of opportunities for the Alabama offense. The Irish average over five yards per carry and this can be a great way to free up Ian Book and let him pick apart a shaky Alabama secondary.
The Bama defense has been sharp against the run this season, allowing less than four yards per rush, but game scripts also benefit that. Most teams are forced to take it to the air early and often with the Alabama offense on the other side. If Notre Dame tries to trade scores with the Tide through the air, it will be in for a long afternoon. Unlike Florida, the Irish don’t possess the athletes to threaten the Alabama secondary down the field.
I’m going to stay away from the side in this one, as I think Notre Dame is going to get its fair share of points but won’t be able stop the Crimson Tide offense at all. I’ll be on the over in this one and rooting for points.
Sugar Bowl - Clemson (-7.5, 66.5) vs. Ohio State
A major part of this handicap is going to be which Ohio State team we’re getting. Several key contributors were out for the Buckeyes’ Big Ten Championship win against Northwestern, namely wide receiver Chris Olave.
Olave is expected to be ready to go come Friday. Head coach Ryan Day said on Monday that he expects “a bunch of guys” to return for the Buckeyes, not just Olave, and because of that, I don’t see Clemson as more than a touchdown better than Ohio State.
This is a rematch of the 2020 Fiesta Bowl, which Clemson won in dramatic fashion. Analysts are going to hammer home the revenge narrative for the Buckeyes, but Ohio State is simply not getting enough credit in the market. I see it as a lack of exposure for the team lately.
The Buckeyes had three games cancelled due to COVID-19 Protocols and have been criticized for making the Playoff due to its lack of play, despite being ultra talented when on the field. Meanwhile, Clemson rolled over Notre Dame by 24 in the ACC title game, driving this line higher than it should be.
Both offenses should be able to score in this matchup. Ohio State’s secondary is young, and has not been challenged much this season. When the group was matched up against Indiana on November 21, stud quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. threw for 491 yards.
Getting Olave back will be huge for Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. Olave has over 100 yards receiving in all but one game he has played in this season. As well, the emergence of running back Trey Sermon helps complete Ohio State's offensive attack. Sermon ran for a school record 331 yards in the Big Ten title game and can help clear the way for Fields and the Ohio State receivers to exploit a suspect Clemson secondary.
An inflection point in this one is going to be red zone efficiency. Ohio State is scoring touchdowns on 61% of trips inside the 20, around the national average. Clemson, on the other hand, is converting touchdowns on 70% of red zone attempts. What seems like a small difference can be what makes or breaks a close game. Both teams are going to need to convert on scoring opportunities.
I bet the over here. Both quarterbacks will shine and the OSU offense is being underrated in the market after a flat effort while shorthanded against Northwestern.
There is also some value in Ohio State at anything over a touchdown. I think this becomes a back and forth affair with two teams that are familiar with one another. Lawrence and the Tigers pull out a win, but it should be another drama filled matchup that goes down to the wire.
