College Basketball has hit the ground running this season, treating fans to some fantastic non-conference matchups before league play starts early due to Covid-19 protocols. Below we set the table for another week of college hoops.
We are using the KenPom projected margin and total below to forecast the lines, which is a good indicator of what the number will be when they are released, typically 24 hours ahead of tip. We try to hit on buy points for each play we are looking at in case the line moves in one direction or the other.
Xavier at Creighton (-6, O/U 152) - December 23
A mid-day shootout never hurt anybody. Both these teams rank inside the top 13 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency numbers and can break the 80-point barrier with ease. Xavier has flown a bit under the radar this season, but with Paul Scruggs leading the way, the Musketeers are poised to be in the mix in a loaded Big East in 2021. Xavier has already knocked off the likes of Oklahoma and Marquette this season, but heading to Omaha against Marcus Zegarowski and Creighton is a different animal.
The Blue Jays had a minor setback last week with a home loss to Marquette, but this Xavier defense will not be able to hold back Greg McDermott’s club. Both teams profile similarly, with three-point heavy offenses paced by its lead ball handler in Scruggs and Zegarowski. Both teams push the pace, each inside the top 70 in terms of offensive tempo and protect the ball well.
Creighton has struggled over the last two, getting outscored by Marquette by 14 in the second half, and going neck and neck on the road with UConn before escaping with an overtime victory. If this line does come out at -6, I’d stay away, even though this is a good spot for Creighton to hand Xavier its first loss.
I would play the over at 152. I’d buy Creighton at -4.5, and I’d play the over up to 154 in what should be an awesome matchup of two of the most potent offenses in the country.
Wisconsin (-3, O/U 143) at Michigan State - December 25
While many eyes will be focused on the NBA Christmas Day, there is a rock solid college basketball slate during the holiday, starting with this Big Ten battle of ranked foes in East Lansing, when Wisconsin travels to take on Michigan State.
Wisconsin pummeled Louisivlle at home last weekend, 85-48, while Michigan State started Big Ten play with an upset loss to Northwestern, losing 79-65 as 7.5-point favorites.
Ken Pom is sky high on Wisconsin, ranking Greg Gard’s squad as the No. 3 team in his rankings. However, I can’t see the Badgers being favored against Sparty on the road and if that is the case, it’s tough to lay off of Michigan State, despite a concerning loss to Northwestern. Michigan State is still one of the deepest teams in the country and Wisconsin may be overvalued following its win over Louisville, who was playing short-handed and its first game in 18 days.
If this line comes out closer to a pick, or even with Sparty favored by a bucket, I would look to the under. WIsconsin is due for some serious regression from three, shooting over 43% from beyond the arc this season, including 16-of-25 from deep against Louisville. Even though both teams are inside the top 15 in offensive efficiency, they each rank towards the top of the country in defensive efficiency as well.
I expect Wisconsin to dictate the pace in this one. It’s ability to limit turnovers and hunt for the best shot while using the clock should make this game a rock fight with both teams scoring in the sixties, not the expected seventies. I like the under at anything 140.5 or higher.
Gonzaga (-7, O/U 149) vs. Virginia - December 26
This game is going to be played on a neutral court in Dallas, so there is no home court factored into this line, but wherever it is played, it’s hard to stay off of the Zags.
After missing more than two weeks of action with COVID-19 protocols, Gonzaga picked up right where it left off, dismantling Luka Garza and Iowa, 99-88, covering the closing spread of -4.5. I expect the Zags to take money in this one and maybe this line opens higher, but this is a matchup nightmare for Virginia.
Gonzaga is the antithesis of what UVA wants to do on the floor. Tony Bennet’s pack line defense is going to struggle with the pace in which Gonzaga plays, as well as the athleticism they present on the wing. The Bulldogs are averaging a shade over 14 seconds per possession, which is ninth fastest in the country.
On the contrary, the Cavaliers average nearly 20 seconds per possession, placing 317 in the country. Even if UVA can slow the pace down, there are too many weapons on Gonzaga not to break 80-90 points. Virginia simply can’t match that output on the offensive end.
This will be Virginia’s second game back from its own COVID-19 shutdown as well, so there still may be some court rust, which is bad news against a Gonzaga team that can break this open from the tip.
You simply can’t get in front of this Gonzaga train right now. I would play the Zags up to -9.
