Unless you’re the Rams and have infinite cap space, most would agree it’s best to build around a young quarterback, taking advantage of the NFL’s collectively bargained rookie wage scale. That’s not to say the Chiefs’ title window is suddenly closed now that Patrick Mahomes is making north of $40 million annually, but pouring that much money into one more player does present challenges, as evidenced by Tyreek Hill’s departure earlier this offseason. For precisely this reason, more quarterbacks are being drafted in the first round than ever including five—Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Mac Jones—last year.
For better or worse, the league has stumbled upon a loophole well worth exploiting, setting a new standard for NFL roster construction. Of course, there’s a certain level of nuance required as not all quarterback classes are created equal. This year’s crop is thought to be especially underwhelming with Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral and Sam Howell comprising one of the weaker groups in recent memory. In fact, if you ask ESPN’s Matt Miller, it wouldn’t be surprising if only one heard their name called on Thursday night.
“As the draft nears, the momentum that swung Kenny Pickett and Malik Willis up the board seems to be swinging back the other way,” Miller wrote in his draft notebook column for ESPN+. “In conversations with league sources this week, one told me that Pickett to the Steelers at No. 20 is the only Round 1 quarterback on which he would bet.”
Along with the Steelers, the Panthers, Lions, Saints, Falcons and Seahawks could also take the plunge at quarterback. But who, outside of Pickett and perhaps Willis (who Miller said could “realistically slide to the 20s”), commands a first-round pick? Your guess is as good as Miller’s. “The buzz surrounding Pickett, Willis, Desmond Ridder and the other passers has quieted down to a point that just one first-round quarterback wouldn't surprise me.”
This time of year, smoke screens and other red herrings planted to throw teams off the scent make it almost impossible to parse between fact and fiction. Though even amid the usual posturing and misdirection (an occupational hazard in the muddied world of NFL reporting), it’s surprising how little certainty we have, particularly at the quarterback position, with just six short days until the draft.
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