Sports bettors, breathe. After four straight days of wall-to-wall college basketball coverage, we can rest up before the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 this weekend.
Two underdogs are sticking out early in the week, let’s break it down:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
No. 4 Florida State (+3, 143.5) vs. No. 1 Michigan - 5 PM EST, Sunday
Florida State was able to handle Colorado in the Round of 32, 71-53.
Meanwhile, Michigan had a back-and-forth battle with offensive powerhouse LSU, but pulled away late, 86-78.
This matchup should suit FSU well. These are two strong three-point shooting teams, but the Noles length is going to give the Michigan offense some issues.
Leonard Hamilton’s club is capable of switching 1-to-5, so there will always be a body checking Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson. FSU will also be able to throw quick footed, long defenders on Michigan guards Mike Smith and Eli Brooks.
The flaw with Florida State is their sloppy ball handling. FSU is outside the nation’s top 250 in turnover rate, but Michigan generates turnovers at the 20th lowest rate in the country. If Michigan isn’t going to turn their opponent over -- LSU had three turnovers in the Round of 32 -- Florida State is going to be able to keep pace with the Wolverines offense.
I’m expecting a game similar to the LSU one for Michigan, which is going to require some big second half shot making to win. However, this is a stronger Seminoles team that should be able to get enough stops to stay within a possession, and possibly win outright.
Pick: Florida State +3
No. 7 Oregon (+2.5, 139) vs. No. 6 USC - 9:45 PM EST, Sunday
I’m going back to the Ducks in the Sweet 16.
Many will look to USC’s thumping of Oregon in Southern California on February 22nd, and say this is going to be a cakewalk for the Trojans.
However, that game was a schedule nightmare for the Ducks, who were playing their third game in five days and fifth in 11 days. The Trojans jumped out to a 15-0 lead and never looked back.
I believe that a rested Ducks team, with head coach Dana Altman, will be better prepared and in good shape in the rematch.
USC was able to decimate Kansas on both the perimeter and the glass in their 34-point win in the Round of 32. The team shot 11-of-18 from three and were +16 on the glass.
However, Oregon has the more reliable offense and I see some shooting regression coming for this USC offense.
The Ducks’ offense is -- led by two guards Chris Duarte and Will Richardson with three other rotation players -- shooting over 35% from three. Oregon blitzed Iowa in the Round of 32, winning 95-80 and scheming out the Iowa perimeter threats.
While the Trojans may have the size advantage with future lottery pick Evan Mobley, USC is an average three-point shooting team that is hot and cold. I’m going to back Altman and his club with nearly a week to prepare his matchup zone.
Don’t forget that USC is a terrible free throw shooting team, 64% as a team this season. This line ballooned to 2.5 after opening at USC -1, and I’ll happily grab the Ducks.
Pick: Oregon +2.5
Grab your piece of the action. Sign up with BetMGM to receive a risk free, first-bet offer all tournament long! Terms and conditions apply.