Outscored 25-7 in the final two games of a series with the division-rival Washington Nationals, the Philadelphia Phillies will open a weekend series with the 3-10 Miami Marlins, looking to snap their first losing streak of the 2019 season. Here are three thoughts on Gabe Kapler's squad ahead of their three-game series with the Fish:
1. Watching Bryce Harper is more enjoyable without a looming opt-out
There was a point, shortly before Harper signed with the Phillies, where there was a vigorous debate being had about whether it made sense to include an opt-out as early as after the third season of any Harper deal if that's what it took to lure the six-time All-Star. From here, there wasn't a debate—if the choice was have Harper for at least three years or don't have him at all, well, it would have been an easy choice.
But man, it's nice not to have to even have that debate.
We now know that Harper, and his wife Kayla, didn't have interest in an opt-out being included in his contract. Had one been included, Harper's hot start—he's slashing .314/.500/.743 with 13 walks, four home runs and eight RBIs—likely would have forced an immediate debate about his future. Serious discussion about Harper's first free-agent stint began after his 2015 National League MVP season. So if he could opt-out after the third season of his contract - or even after the fifth, like Manny Machado - that would have hung over the Phillies heads for possibly his entire tenure with the team.
You can make your own predictions about how the final few years of Bryce Harper's 13-year/$330 million deal will play out. What's almost certain is that in his late 30s, he won't be performing like the same player that the Phillies rewarded with just over $26 million per year in early March. It's also fair to say that $26 million likely won't mean as much in 2031 as it does in 2019.
When Harper signed with the Phillies, he talked about how there had been speculation since he entered the league about him eventually ending up with the New York Yankees, among other teams. He didn't want to have the thought of another free-agent stint hanging over him for the rest of his peak—he just wanted to place baseball. And by insisting that an opt-out not be included in his deal, he allowed himself to do that.
2. Bryce Harper may not be a National anymore, but their lineup is going to be a problem for a long time
Bryce Harper may be the Philadelphia Phillies right fielder now, but it didn't stop the Nationals from scoring 28 runs in their series win over the Phillies. The conclusion? While Harper may be the most accomplished offensive player in the short history of the Nationals organization, he left behind a lineup full of stars in the nation's capital.
Tuesday night, Juan Soto launched a majestic three-run home run that stayed fair just long enough to help seal a Phillies loss. It was Soto's seventh career home run against the Phillies, with all seven of those roundtrippers coming in less than 70 at-bats. Soto was the runner-up in the National League Rookie of the Year voting in 2018, and the 20-year-old will likely be a contender for the National League MVP in 2019 and beyond.
Meanwhile, center fielder Victor Robles entered the season as one of the five highest rated prospects in the sport. Just old enough to drink legally, Robles is currently hitting ninth in manager Dave Martinez's lineup. Don't expect that to last much longer. Robles is hitting just shy of .300, and drove in three runs over Tuesday and Wednesday.
Third baseman Anthony Rendon, 28, is off to a scorching-hot start, as he's hitting .435 with four home runs and 17 RBIs through the first 11 games of the 2019 season. For Rendon, it couldn't come at a better time, as he's eligible to be a free-agent at the end of the 2019 season. While it may behoove him to test free-agency with Nolan Arenado and Xander Bogaerts off the board, there's a good chance that the money the Nationals didn't spend on Harper could find its way into the pockets of Rendon, who is fourth among all qualified players in fWAR since the start of the 2017 season.
The Phillies missed Trea Turner in their most recent series with the Nationals, as the 25-year-old shortstop is currently on the disabled list with broken right index finger. But a year ago, Turner posted a 4.8 fWAR. He's one of the more underappreciated stars in the sport, and can't become a free-agent until after 2022.
At this very moment, the Nationals bullpen is an unmitigated disaster. Max Scherzer may be the best pitcher in the sport right now, though it's fair to wonder how much longer the 34-year-old will continue to pitch at this level. But one thing you can count on now and for the foreseeable future is that the Nationals lineup will keep them at or near the top of the National League East.
3. The Marlins are in more of a position to be patient with Jorge Alfaro
Jorge Alfaro possess a world-class arm, grades out as one of the best pitchframers in baseball and has elite power potential for a catcher. If Alfaro puts everything together, he could be the best catcher in baseball.
But simply because a player has a high ceiling doesn't mean they will fulfill that potential. Talent development is an inexact process, to say the least. So while taking Alfaro back in the J.T. Realmuto trade—which also netted them highly-coveted righty Sixto Sanchez—made sense for the rebuilding Miami Marlins, trading for a sure thing in Realmuto gave the Phillies a massive upgrade behind the plate.
The Marlins have the luxury of being patient, perhaps to a fault. They have one of the worst rosters in baseball, so they can allow Alfaro to attempt to work through some of his growing pains. Alfaro had 11 errors—and 10 passed balls—in 2018. He has a high ceiling behind the plate when you factor in his world-class arm and pitch framing skills. But the job of a catcher—first and foremost—is, well, to catch.
Similarly, Alfaro has a high offensive ceiling, but is extremely raw at the plate. Alfaro hit .262 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs in 2018, his first full season at the major league level. He would flash his elite power tools, but struck also struck out in 36.6 percent of his at-bats in 2018. Alfaro had a .406 batting average on balls in play last year, but he simply wasn't putting the ball in play enough for his own good.
Alfaro already has three home runs and six RBIs, but has struck out in 38.2 percent of his at-bats in 2019. It's going to be difficult to be successful in Marlins Park if your mindset everytime you come to the plate is to hit a titanic home run. Alfaro may reach his All-Star potential offensively. Or he may always strike out too much to make good on his high ceiling.
In a lineup that has 38-year-old Curtis Granderson leading off and Starlin Castro hitting cleanup, the Marlins can be patient as Alfaro attempts to develop. The Phillies, who have assembled a slightly deeper lineup, weren't in a position to do that in 2019.
