Can you hear that? It's the sound of baseball on the radio.
It's also the sound of uncertainty and a choose-your-own-adventure roster in Clearwater, Florida.
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As the Phillies get set to take the field for the start of spring training and the first games on the Grapefruit League slate are heard on WIP, a camp full of question marks and variance is present.
Expectations and hope are fickle, but no team in baseball seems to wield a bigger gap between internal confidence vs. outside projections. If the Phillies are going to overachieve and prove Vegas (84.5 over/under win total), PECOTA (projected 77-85 record) and Fangraphs (6.3% chance to win the NL East, ranked behind nine National League teams in playoff odds) and all the skeptics wrong, a slew of things need to go right—starting with five players that will swing the 2020 season.
If this group all hits and exceeds expectations, the Phillies are headed to October for the first time since 2011. If all or most do not, it's going to be another disappointing season. And no, Aaron Nola, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto aren't listed. The building blocks of this team obviously need to perform, and surely will when healthy.
This following group is far less certain.
Zack Wheeler: It's hard to sign a $118M contract and go under the radar in a sports town like this, but Wheeler is doing just that. Maybe it's the timing of the deal (very early in the offseason) or perhaps nothing feels that big anymore after last year's pursuit of Harper. But something tells me Wheeler will generate emotional response soon. The Phillies signed him because of upside, not career performance to date. This team needs a full season of top-of-the-rotation excellence and health from Wheeler, a rare combination since his debut in 2013.
Rhys Hoskins: No player more accurately sums up the last few years of Phillies baseball than Hoskins. The highs and hot streaks were good enough to pique your interest and generate some belief, but the lows and cold streaks were low enough to cause real long-term concern. Here's what Hoskins is: A good, not great offensive player that offers very little value in any other area. The Phillies need more, and need extended slumps to dissipate. If Hoskins is simply an .840ish OPS guy with 30 HR and poor defense, he's a DH masquerading around as a cleanup hitter on a prospective contender. That's not enough for the Phillies.
Spencer Howard: Is this a ton of pressure to put on a 23-year-old that's never pitched above Double-A and threw less than 100 minor league innings in 2019? Yes. But Howard is also the Phillies Get Out of Jail Free card after years of failing to develop high-end pitching. On pure stuff, Howard already might have top-three ability in camp. An innings limit is concerning (get ready for the Phillies version of a Stephen Strasburg shutdown decision!), but Howard's eventual arrival could transform this team. Plus, there's nothing like a full stadium watching a young phenom throw in a pennant race. It could energize the entire franchise.
Seranthony Dominguez: Team bullpen performance fluctuates on a year-to-year basis more than just about anything in pro sports, but let's be honest about the Phillies bullpen: It's a massive concern. We're talking about Joe Girardi trying to piece together an eight-man group with castoffs, arms that didn't see the majors last year, players returning from major injury and few reliable performers. Dominguez's upside could change the entire unit and give Girardi a weapon with similar ability to the best relievers he called upon with the Yankees. We likely won't see Dominguez throw in Grapefruit League games until early March. All eyes will be on how he looks then.
Adam Haseley: The 2017 first-round pick feels like an afterthought heading into his second year in the majors, but his performance will be more akin to a lineup linchpin this summer. If Haseley can take a leap, the Phillies' already-deep lineup gets even better and a plus-defender with real offense will have emerged in center field.
If Haseley can't, however, a domino effect of issues will present themselves: Outfield depth, especially if Andrew McCutchen can't play everyday off ACL surgery, suddenly becomes a big thing. Scott Kingery, who the Phillies seemingly want to find a steady position for, may be forced back to the outfield. Outfield defense, a projected strength with McCutchen-Haseley-Harper from left-to-right, could take a huge hit.
The Phillies will likely need to devote any trade resources they are willing to spend in July on an arm. Haseley locking down center field will help make sure that doesn't have to suddenly change.
