For the eighth year in a row, "Red October" isn't happening in Philadelphia.
Remember how much fun that was?
The streets were filled with people wearing Phillies gear. The chilly air was made more bearable thrilling baseball games in South Philadelphia. Fans got the opportunity to wave rally towels as their beloved "Phightins" went 16-9 in October/November at the coolest place to be from 2007 to 2011. When was the last time a rally towel was waved at 1 Citizens Bank Way?
Those years are long gone. The Phils, despite spending around half a billion dollars, will be ending their season after 162 games, again. Their drought is the 5th longest in Major League Baseball, with only the Marlins, Padres, Mariners and White Sox missing postseason play longer. These five teams are the only in the sport to fail to make the tournament since baseball implemented an expanded 10-team field in 2012.
The Phils drought was supposed to end this season, especially with the additions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen. Aaron Nola was supposed to build off of his remarkable 2018 season. The Phils lost his last seven starts. Nick Pivetta was supposed to break out. Zach Eflin was supposed to continue being reliable. Jake Arrieta was supposed to be healthy. The bullpen was supposed to be one of the most consistent in the National League.
All of these "supposed to's" are why the Phillies press box was packed with national insiders and out of town writers/media members on Opening Day, when the Phils pounded the now back-to-back National League East Champion Atlanta Braves. They swept that series and eventually starting 4-0. The fourth win happened at Harper's old stomping ground—Nationals Park—the same place the Phils playoff hopes officially ceased. Hours later, Harper's old mates were popping champagne for making the Wild Card game. Harper was answering questions about his manager on the hot seat. Symbolic, indeed.
Harper's first game back in DC was even more anticipated than the home opener. He went yard and Phillies fans got the last laugh on that gloomy, yet glorious night in April.
Oh my, how the tables turned.
The Phillies lost the next game because of a Rhys Hoskins error and David Robertson implosion. That was the first of multiple attempts the Phils couldn't muster five wins in a row. With four games to go entering Thursday afternoon, a five-game winning streak won't happen in 2019. Simply remarkable.
Another inconsistent season, which featured a June swoon and a bunch of losses at the end of September l, might cost Gabe Kapler his job.
Let me be clear, Kapler isn't why the Phillies aren't making the playoffs. He hasn't been perfect and he's certainly over managed several games, especially down the stretch, but there are many more reasons beyond him that "Red October" is still a distant memory. If he's dismissed, he'll be the fall guy, or at least one of them. Poor play was more a cause for their demise than his managing was.
Quite frankly, there's nothing Kapler could do to get this team to October. They weren't good enough. That's the problem. He doesn't put the team together. The front office does.
Underachieving, Inconsistent Offense
The Phils offense showed decent improvements after Charlie Manuel took over in August as the team's hitting coach. But, overall, what should've been the team's strength ended up being their biggest problem.
Starting pitching was their weakness. Inconsistent and underachieving hitting was their largest issue.
Heading into the final four games, the Phillies team batting average ranked 23rd in baseball , 11th in the National League and fourth in the NL East at .245. Their on base percentage, a stat the analytical Phillies value, was 19th in MLB, 11th in the NL and fourth in the NL East at .319. Slugging percentage fell in the same general area. Their 208 home runs, in a season allegedly with "juiced" baseballs, was 22nd in the majors, 11th in the National League and fourth in the division. Runs batted in were middle of the pack. The Phils were OK in were walks, but last time I checked, walks often don't drive in runs, a stat the Phils were very average in as well.
Harper, despite having a great first season in Philadelphia, went through some lengthy struggles. Hoskins looked lost many times. Realmuto didn't break out offensively until later. Segura was up and down. Scott Kingery and Cesar Hernandez had their spurts, but also their slumps. No one ever clicked at once, despite Hoskins hinting that was right around the corner.
Maybe they still would've missed the postseason if the offense performed to expectations, but at least they would've been guaranteed a decent winning record, something that's not a lock at 79-79.
Lack of Development with the rotation
Pivetta, Eflin and Velasquez didn't take the necessary steps forward to establish themselves as reliable major league starting pitchers. Each one had their moments, but not consistently enough to even consider them as candidates for the rotation next season. If either of them are penciled in when the season begins, the Phillies didn't do their job to address the biggest weakness on the team.
Ravaged Bullpen
The bullpen was supposed to feature Robertson, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter, Sereanthony Dominguez and Hector Neris, while being complimented by Adam Morgan, Victor Arano, Jose Alvarez and maybe Jerad Eickhoff. Seven of those nine players missed a large chunk, if not most of the season with injuries.
Nick Vincent was stepping into high leverage situations in critical games during the Phils playoff push.
The fact all those relievers injured themselves should put the team's medical staff into question, as well as the front office for thinking it was safe to give sizable money to Robertson, Neshek and Hunter. This leads to my next point.
Front Office
The front office didn't have an "objectively excellent" season.
General Manager Matt Klentak and President Andy MacPhail poorly assessed the Phils pitching staff from a season ago. It was imperative to upgrade from Pivetta, Eflin and Velasquez, or at least a combination of the three, set the Phils back drastically in 2019.
Given everything at stake, it was too risky to bank on a flukey 2018 when the pitchers did decent under the tutelage of former pitching coach and current Braves pitching coach Rick Kranitz. Oh wait, oops.
Then in-season, when fans were crossing their fingers that Klentak would make a quality move to improve the team's playoff chances, he elected to go the less expensive route of Jason Vargas, Drew Smyly, Jared Hughes, Mike Morin, Blake Parker and others. The bench wasn't good enough, despite Jay Bruce and Brad Miller being OK pickups. There weren't enough quality acquisitions to move the needle.
Most importantly, attitudes like MacPhail's "if we don't, we don't" do not work in Philadelphia. That will always poor water on a fan base's interest, which was already dwindling from "Harper-Mania" because of the mediocrity taking place on the field.
Lack of hustle
One thing I will say Kapler didn't do well enough was the level he held players publicly accountable for multiple hustle incidents throughout the season. McCutchen's injury was very unfortunate, but to blatantly point the finger at Segura is a bit extreme. His lack of hustle on that play in San Diego led to McCutchen's awkward situation on the base paths, but mistakes happen. It's not like Segura wanted McCutchen to get hurt.
However, not benching Segura on the second incident showed that consequences for not busting it down the line may not come. Other players displayed that type of play during the season, and it took Kapler to sit Maikel Franco to make an example of someone. Then, the message to Cesar Hernandez on one of his incidents wasn't made entirely clear because Hernandez thought it was just a day off rather than being taken out of the lineup.
True, Kapler might've been hurting the Phillies in that moment for taking one of their better players out of competition. But, it would've sent a message that everyone needed hustle like Harper, who was unbelievable in that department in his first of 13 seasons in Philadelphia.
Lack of hustle isn't directly why they didn't make the playoffs. But, that familiar storyline left a bad aura over a season that promised so much more than actually happened.
