The Eagles are a franchise that has earned the honor of starting each season with plenty of expectations. It is hard to remember, however, a season that came with the hopes as high as the one that will start on Sunday against the Washington Redskins.
Carson Wentz is almost everyone's pick to win the MVP. The roster is universally considered one of the best in the league. The skill positions players, especially after the acquisition of DeSean Jackson, are discussed among the best in the league. The Super Bowl isn't just the goal — it is the expectation.
The question is whether the Eagles can meet the expectations placed upon them.
Recent history suggests the answer might be no.
Since 2005 the Eagles have entered a season with the oddsmakers setting their over/under for wins at 10-or-more five times. Each time they have failed to get to 10 wins. Four of those times they missed the playoffs, with the lone exception being last year, and they averaged just under seven wins in those five seasons.
This year the Eagles, depending one what book you look at, enter the season with an over/under of 10 wins. That number has gone up as it started at 9.5. The hype around the Eagles isn't slowing down — it is growing as the season gets closer.
Although they do have one of the best rosters in the NFL, getting to 10 wins might not be as easy as many think. The schedule is projected to be one of the easiest in the league, but the first eight games feature five on the road, including a trip to Green Bay on a short week and a span of three in a row.
A tough opening to the season is not ideal for the Eagles, but it seems likely.
They are coming off of a training camp in which a number of key players on defense — headlined by Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett — were on the sideline for most of it. Overall, they went through camp with seven of their 11 projected started on defense missing nearly all of the 11-on-11 team drills. The Eagles found out last season just how much training camp matters and head coach Doug Pederson has cited their slow-start to last season on missing so many players in camp. Avoiding the same fate on defense this season won't be easy, especially with road games against the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers early on.
While the depth at cornerback was discussed all offseason, now that the regular season is here, it is hard to feel confident about the team's starting secondary. Ronald Darby is coming off of a torn ACL and missed almost all of the team drills in training camp. Same with safety Rodney McLeod. Sidney Jones has yet to show he can be a quality NFL player. Outside of Malcolm Jenkins and Avonte Maddox, it is hard to look at anyone in the secondary as a sure thing.
The pass rush could also end up being an issue. Brandon Graham seems set for a big year, but outside of Graham, the team has nothing at question marks at defensive end. Barnett — who has never been a full-time starter — is coming off of shoulder surgery that cost him 10 games last season and is still limited in practiced. Josh Sweat, Shareef Miller and Daeshon Hall all have potential, but none of them have shown they can be counted on to contribute yet. It is also fair to wonder what kind of year the team will get from Cox. If he struggles and takes some time to get going after missing the entire offseason the defense could be in some serious trouble.
If the defense does struggle early on, the Eagles are going to need to count on their offense to keep them afloat — the exact opposite of what happened early on last season. As bleak as things look on defense, they look bright on offense.
Wentz is coming off of his first healthy training camp since 2017, a season which ended up being the best of his career. Although he wasn't razor sharp in camp, the fact Wentz took every rep in every practice with the first-team offense is a big deal. Expecting Wentz to be the player he was in 2017 might not be a fair expectation. Wentz was historically great on third-down that season and in the red zone. He could have a Hall-of-Fame career and not duplicate what he did on third-down in 2017 the rest of his career.
With the weapons he has around him, however, Wentz has no excuse not to have a big year. The skill position players around Wentz all complement each other perfectly. Alshon Jeffery is the physical option on the outside. DeSean Jackson stretches the field. Nelson Agholor is the speed they need in the slot. Zach Ertz remains the best tight end in the league, and he has the best set of running backs behind him he has in his career. Assuming the offensive line plays like it is capable of, all Wentz will need to do is take care of the ball, get it out quickly and accurately. If he does the Eagles' offense should be one of the best in the league.
While many around Philadelphia project either 12-and-13 wins for the Eagles, getting into the playoffs won't be easy and shouldn't be considered a lock in a loaded NFC. Winning their division is no guarantee, and if they don't, a wild-card spot might be tough. There are 10 legitimate playoff contenders in the NFC and four will be on the outside looking in.
The easiest path to the playoffs for the Eagles is winning the division, and it seems only the Dallas Cowboys stands in their way. The Cowboys are one of the best teams in the NFC and have had the Eagles' number recently, winning both crucial late-season games last year. Many fans are looking past the challenge of winning the NFC East, but the division has always been one of the toughest to predict in the league. Since 2005, no team that entered the season as the clear-cut favorite to win the division has ended it as champions.
With how the schedules look for both teams it is very possible the Cowboys jump out to an early lead in the division, putting the pressure on the Eagles to finish strong.
Eagles' game-by-game predictions:
Home vs. Washington Redskins: Win (1-0)
At Atlanta Falcons: Loss (1-1)
Home vs. Detroit Lions: Win (2-1)
At Green Bay Packers: Loss (2-2)
Home vs. New York Jets: Win (3-2)
At Minnesota Vikings: Win (4-2)
At Dallas Cowboys: Loss (4-3)
At Buffalo Bills: Loss (4-4)
Home vs. Chicago Bears: Win (5-4)
Home vs. New England Patriots: Loss (5-5)
Home vs. Seattle Seahawks: Win (6-5)
At Miami Dolphins: Win (7-5)
Home vs. Giants: Loss (7-6)
At Washington Redskins: Win (8-6)
Home vs. Dallas Cowboys: Win (9-6)
At New York Giants: Win (10-6)
Cowboys game-by-game predictions:
Home vs. New York Giants: Win (1-0)
At Washington Redskins: Win (2-0)
Home vs. Miami Dolphins: Win (3-0)
At New Orleans Saints: Loss (3-1)
Home vs. Green Bay Packers: Loss (3-2)
At New York Jets: Win (4-2)
Home vs. Eagles: Win (5-2)
At New York Giants: Loss (5-3)
Home vs. Minnesota Vikings: Win (6–3)
At Detroit Lions: Win (7-3)
At New England Patriots: Loss (7-4)
Home vs. Buffalo Bills: Win (8-4)
At Chicago Bears: Loss (8-5)
Home vs. Los Angeles Rams: Loss (8-6)
At Eagles: Loss (8-7)
Home vs. Washington Redskins: Win (9-7)
If these predictions hold true, the Cowboys will have a two-game lead 10 games into the season. With an extremely easy final five games of their schedule, however, the Eagles should be able to catch them — and the guess here is they will. The division will likely come down to the team's Week 16 game in Philadelphia. The winner of that game will win the NFC East — and the Eagles will somehow, someway take care of business. There isn't much reason to pick the Eagles other than the fact they are at home and there hasn't been a repeat champion in the NFC in 14 years. If Wentz can get the win, it will go down as the biggest of his career, and his first significant win over Dak Prescott.
Assuming Wentz does get this team into the playoffs, it will be fascinating to see how he plays. Putting the expectation on him to carry this team into the Super Bowl is unfair his first trip into the postseason. If this season ends with Wentz healthy and his first playoff win under his belt the team should consider it a success — even if they aren't marching down Broad Street.
With all that being said, here are my predictions for the Eagles' 2019 season:
Defense: Disappointing year due to injuries and a lack of depth at cornerback/pass rusher
Offense: Top-10 unit in the league
Wentz: Around 4,200 yards, 31 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Record: 10-6, NFC East Champions
Playoffs: Win at home in Wild Card round, eliminated the next week in New Orleans
NFL PREDICTIONS:
NFC Playoffs:
1. Rams
2. Saints
3. Eagles
4. Packers
5. Cowboys
6. Panthers
AFC Playoffs
1. Patriots
2. Chiefs
3. Browns
4. Jaguars
5. Colts
6. Ravens
Wild Card:
Eagles over Panthers
Packers over Cowboys
Browns over Ravens
Jaguars over Colts
Divisional Round:
Rams over Packers
Saints over Eagles
Patriots over Jaguars
Chiefs over Browns
Conference Championships:
Rams over Saints
Chiefs over Patriots
Super Bowl:
Rams over Chiefs
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
