The Eagles have six games remaining following their ugly 17-10 loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday, a loss that dropped that a full game behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.
Despite how terrible things might feel on Monday morning, however, the reality is that a path to the playoffs is still there. The website FiveThirtyEight.com gives the Eagles a 47% chance to find their way into the postseason. The New York Times playoff simulator puts the Eagles' chaces at 38%.
How can they beat the odds and get in? Here is an updated look at the team's playoff picture after Sunday's action around the league:
NFC East:
Making the Eagles' loss worse? The Cowboys won a game that briefly looked like they might lose against the Detroit Lions. The result is the Cowboys are now 6-4, one game ahead of the Eagles, while also holding the head-to-head tie breaker.
The Cowboys' remaining schedule looks like this:
At New England (9-1)
Home vs. Buffalo (7-3)
At Chicago (4-6)
Home vs. Los Angeles (6-4)
At Philadelphia (5-5)
Home vs. Washington (1-9)
Record of remaining opponents: 32-28
Of the Cowboys' six remaining games, they will likely be favorites in five of them, including their trip to Philadelphia later this season. The good news for the Eagles is that the Cowboys have to head to New England next week, a game they should lose. If the Cowboys can somehow win that game, things could get out of hand quickly for the Eagles, especially if they fall to Seattle next week as well.
Anything is possible, but for now, it looks like there is a good chance the Cowboys come to Philadelphia in five weeks with a 9-5 or 8-6 record, with their most likely losses next week against the Patriots and at home against the Rams.
The Eagles' schedule, after next Sunday, still looks favorable:
Home vs. Seattle (8-2)
At Miami (2-8)
Home vs. Giants (2-8)
At Washington (1-9)
Home vs. Cowboys (6-4)
At Giants (2-8)
Record of remaining opponents: 21-39
The Eagles are almost out of the woods from their brutal schedule to start the season — but they aren't there yet. The Eagles still have a very tough game at home next week when the Seattle Seahawks come to town. The Seahawks are not only coming off of their Bye Week, but they have never lost to the Eagles with Pete Carroll as the head coach. Anything is possible in the NFL, and the Eagles are good at home, but realistically that should be looked at as a loss that would drop the Eagles to 5-6. The Eagles will get a chance to get rolling in the next three weeks, with games vs. the Dolphins, Giants and Washington, three teams that are a combined 5-25. All three of those absolutely have to be wins if the Eagles fall to the Seahawks.
If the Eagles go 3-1 in their next four games, they would enter the critical matchup with the Cowboys at 8-6. If the Cowboys, as mentioned above, enter the game at either 8-6 or 9-5, the Eagles would either take the lead outright or tie them with a win. A loss would obviously end their season.
If the Eagles win in Week 16, and end the season with the same record as the Cowboys, the next tie breaker would be divisional records. If both teams win the games they are supposed to, they would each finish the season 5-1 in the NFC East, moving it to the third tie breaker.
The third tie breaker? Common opponents. The Eagles and the Cowboys have 12 games on their schedule against common opponents, including the division. They are both currently 5-3 in the eight games they have played so far out of the 12.
The good news is that the Cowboys' remaining common opponent games has the Patriots and Buffalo Bills, both of which are currently playoff teams. The Eagles remaining common opponent games are the Dolphins, Giants and Washington (twice). It is very possible, if the Eagles beat the Cowboys, they could win the tie breaker with a 9-3 record in common opponent games, with the Cowboys finishing 8-4.
If they were still tied after the third tie breaker, the fourth tie-breaker would be record against teams in the conference. Picking the likely favorite in each game, the two teams would tied there as well, each at 7-3.
Wild Card:
Of course, if the Eagles don't win the NFC East, they do have a shot at the Wild Card.
The Eagles are currently on the outside looking in at 5-5, trailing the Vikings (8-3) and Seahawks (8-2). Catching the Seahawks might be tough, but it starts with a win next Sunday. A win would be huge, as it would give them the tie breaker over the Seahawks, something they don't have over the Vikings, as the Vikings beat them earlier this season.
A look at the team's realistically still in the Wild Card hunt:
1. Seattle (8-2)
2. Vikings (7-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
4. Eagles (5-5)
5. Panthers (5-5)
Getting the Wild Card won't be easy, but it is a possibility if they beat the Seahawks. If they fall to the Seahawks and have six losses, the chances of them catching either the Vikings or the Seahawks are basically over.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
