What do Howie Roseman and Jake Rosenberg know that we don't?
That is a question I have asked myself, and tried to find the answer to, all offseason when it comes to the Eagles 2021 salary cap situation.
That question became slightly more complicated on Tuesday when the team announced the signing of Jason Peters to a one-year deal. The contract is reportedly worth $3 million, with a chance to go up to $6 million with incentives.
With around $24.7 million in salary cap space prior (according to OverTheCap.com) to the signing, the move knocks the Eagles down to around $21.7 million in available space. They also still need to sign the majority of their rookie class, including first-round pick Jalen Reagor and second-round pick Jalen Hurts, so that number will be dropping even more.
As that number continues to drop, their salary cap picture gets more-and-more complicated.
On paper, the Eagles look to be in trouble in 2021. According to OverTheCap.com, the Eagles are currently set to be $50.6 million over the salary cap in 2021. Only one other team, the New Orleans Saints, are also projected to be over the cap.
Even in a usual year, where the world wasn't dealing with a global pandemic, getting out from a $50 million hole wouldn't be easy.
But as we all know, nothing has been normal in 2020, and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic could impact the Eagles next year as well. While the chances of games being cancelled is still unknown, no fans in the stands seems like a certainty, and that should result in each team taking in considerably less revenue than expected. Less revenue could mean a drop in the salary cap, or at the very least, it almost certainly not increasing.
While that is all a hypothetical, it certainly isn't ideal for a team that is already in a tough spot. Considering how much they like to plan ahead, and they have a mastery of the salary cap, it is crazy to think the duo of Roseman and Rosenberg would go down this path without a plan.
So what could their plan be?
Currently, the Eagles have around $21.7 million in salary cap space after the Jason Peters signing. Unused cap space from one season rolls over to the next in the NFL, meaning if the Eagles don't make any more moves — and it is unlikely they make a big-time signing at this point — they will roll over around $21.7 million to next offseason. The $50 million hole means every penny the Eagles spend in 2020 -- especially $3 million for Peters -- impacts them in 2021 as well. That $21.7 number will change slightly based off of rookie signings and potential training camp cuts, so let's assume it lands at about $20 million at the end of the 2020 season.
Assuming it ends up at $20 million, rolling it over would cut take away a big chunk of the Eagles' deficit, bringing that $50.6 million number down to around $30.6 million.
From there, the Eagles have some (presumably) fairly obvious cuts that will open up space.
It is unlikely that the trio of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Marquise Goodwin are back in 2021. If they are, it certainly won't be on their current deals, and of the three Jackson has the best chance of being back. Cutting all three next offseason opens up around $19 million in cap space. That would bring the Eagles to around $11.6 million over the salary cap.
Outside of that trio, there are no obvious releases the Eagles could make to save considerable cap space. Derek Barnett's $10 million cap hit is one option, as none of it is guaranteed, but the chances of the team cutting Barnett outright after the 2020 season feel slim.
The rest of the money is likely going to come from re-structures. Fletcher Cox has a projected cap hit of $22 million in 2021. Brandon Graham has a projected cap hit of $17.9 million. It would be surprising if either of those players played the 2021 season at those numbers. Tight end Zach Ertz, who is already in line for a new deal, has a cap hit of $12.4 million in 2021. That could, and likely will be, lowered as well.
A Wentz restructure is also possible, although the drafting of Jalen Hurts puts that somewhat into question, and given his injury history the Eagles might need to see a clean 2020 season to consider it. A Wentz restructure seems more likely following the 2021 season.
The issue with basing your plans off of these moves, however, is that a lot needs to go right. The Eagles need to see some serious development from their young receivers to feel good cutting all three of their veterans at the position. Players like Cox, Graham, Ertz and Wentz have to want to re-do their deals, and if they do, the Eagles position of needing to restructure likely won't help them in negotiations.
What will happen remains to be seen, but one thing does seem lear — Roseman and Rosenberg will have to create some salary cap magic yet again next offseason.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
