For years the Eagles have been viewed as having one of the best, and most creative, salary cap experts in the league on their staff. Lead by Howie Roseman and Jake Rosenberg, money has really never been an issue for the Eagles — they always have cap space, and they always have the option to sign the big-name free agents.
That will likely remain true as long as Roseman and Rosenberg as running the show. This article is not meant to slam the panic button a year before the next offseason.
But while the duo has earned the benefit of the doubt, it is hard to look ahead to 2021 and not be a little surprised at the hole the Eagles appear to have dug themselves in.
According to OverTheCap.com, the Eagles are currently set to be $50.6 million over the salary cap in 2021. Only one other team, the New Orleans Saints, are also projected to be over the cap — but by only $9.5 million. The wide gap between the Eagles and the rest of the league is shocking, and a massive drop for a team that currently has the seventh-most space in the league.
A potential unexpected drop in the salary cap could complicate things even further. Speaking on the My Sports Update Football Podcast recently, ESPN's Adam Schefter revealed that the salary cap in 2021 could be impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak. Due to the potential for games either being cancelled or no fans being in the stands, each team could potentially take in considerably less revenue than expected. Less revenue would mean a drop in the salary cap. Schefter suggests, based off of conversations with team executives, that the cap could drop as much as "$30 to $80 million", making it considerably lower than the projected $215 million.
While that is all a hypothetical, it certainly isn't ideal for a team that is already in a tough spot.
A staple of a Roseman/Rosenberg deal is a low cap hit up front, followed by a big jump later. That is very evident based off of the jumps for players from 2020 to 2021. In 2020, the Eagles have five players with cap hits over $10 million. In 2021 that number more than doubles, going from five to 12. Their number of players with cap hits over $15 million also takes a big jump, going from four in 2020 to seven in 2021.
The massive jumps are all over the roster. Carson Wentz goes from an $18.6 million cap hit in 2020 to $34.6 million in 2021. Malik Jackson goes from $4.6 million to $13.6 million. Darius Slay goes from $4.3 million to $15.75 million. Javon Hargrave goes from $3.4 million to $15.2 million. The list continues.
Add up all the big jumps to key players, and the Eagles' projected contracts for their top 51 players goes from roughly $183 million in 2020 to $265 million in 2021 — which results in the $50 million hole they could find themselves in.
Roseman and the Eagles have some options to dig their way out.
Currently, the Eagles have around $23.5 million in salary cap space. Unused cap space from one season rolls over to the next in the NFL, meaning if the Eagles don't make any more moves — and it is unlikely they make a big-time signing at this point — they will roll over around $23.5 million to next offseason. That number could change slightly based off of rookie signings and potential training camp cuts.
Assuming it stays around $23 million, rolling it over would cut the Eagles' deficit almost in half, bringing that $50.6 million number down to around $27.6 million.
From there, the Eagles have some fairly obvious cuts that will open up space.
It is unlikely that the trio of Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Marquise Goodwin are back in 2021. If they are, it certainly won't be on their current deals. Cutting all three next offseason opens up around $19 million in cap space. That would bring the Eagles to around $8.1 million over the salary cap.
It is also a safe bet that some restructures will take place. Fletcher Cox has a projected cap hit of $22 million in 2021. Brandon Graham has a projected cap hit of $17.9 million. It would be surprising if either of those players played the 2021 season at those numbers. Tight end Zach Ertz, who is already in line for a new deal, has a cap hit of $12.4 million in 2021. That could, and likely will be, lowered as well.
A Wentz restructure is also possible, although the drafting of Jalen Hurts puts that somewhat into question, and given his injury history the Eagles might need to see a clean 2020 season to consider it. A Wentz restructure seems more likely following the 2021 season.
Who will be restructured remains to be seen, but if the Eagles roll over a large amount of money, cut the trio of Jeffery, Jackson and Goodwin, they should be able to work their way out of the $50.6 million hole. Things could get really complicated and messy if the salary cap does indeed drop, but considering how many variables are involved in that, it is hard to project what will happen if it does.
What will happen remains to be seen, but one thing does seem lear — Roseman and Rosenberg will have to create some salary cap magic yet again next offseason.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
