To say there was shock both in Philadelphia and around the league when the Eagles drafted Jalen Hurts with the 53rd overall pick last Thursday night would be an understatement.
The shock of the Eagles picking Hurts, despite having a 27-year old Carson Wentz under a record-setting contract, still hasn't completely worn off. It might not for some time.
It is easy to understand why — history shows that the Eagles' pick of Hurts was virtually unprecedented and almost certainly won't work out for all the parties involved.
How rare was the Eagles decision to pick Hurts? Prior to the 2020 NFL Draft, only three times in the last 20 drafts has a team done something even remotely comparable to what the Eagles just did, drafting a quarterback in the second round despite having a clear-cut starting quarterback under 30-years old on the roster.
In 2008, the Green Bay Packers drafted Brian Bohm with 25-year old Aaron Rodgers on the roster. In 2011, the San Francisco 49ers drafted Colin Kaepernick with a 26-year old Alex Smith on the roster. In 2013, the New York Jets drafted Geno Smith with a 26-year old Mark Sanchez as their starter.
The outcome of all three situations should be worrisome for the Eagles.
In 2011, the 49ers had a 27-year old Smith when they drafted Kaepernick in the second round (36th overall pick). The situations are not exactly the same, as Smith, the former No. 1 overall pick, was struggling with the 49ers as their starting quarterback prior to Kaepernick being drafted. Smith started the 2011 season, and was nearing the end of his contract, but was benched midway through 2012 for Kaepernick. Smith was with a different team by 2013. Needless to say, and outcome that results in Wentz playing elsewhere by 2022 would not be great for Wentz or the money the team invested in him.
In 2008, the Packers drafted Bohm with their 56th overall pick, despite having former first-round pick Rodgers finally set to take over for Brett Favre as their franchise quarterback. The situation is different than the Eagles' current situation, as Rodgers had yet to start a game for the Packers, and had just two years remaining on his rookie deal. The pick of Bohm made some sense. Regardless, Rodgers was the clear-cut starter, and Bohm was cut one year later. Needless to say, cutting Hurts in one year would be a disaster of a draft pick and a complete waste of an asset.
In 2013, Sanchez suffered a season-ending injury in the preseason, and never played another snap for the Jets as the job was handed over to Geno Smith.
Of course, the main difference between Rodgers, Smith, Sanchez and Wentz is that Wentz has had a high-level of success in the NFL. Neither Rodgers or Smith had succeeded as a starter when their teams drafted a quarterback in the second round. Sanchez was likely on his way out the door as well when the Jets picked Smith.
The Eagles, on the other hand, are insisting they still believe in Wentz, even if the only three teams over the last 20 years that did what the Eagles just did clearly had some uncertainty at the quarterback position, making you wonder if we are all ignoring the obvious about the team's true feelings towards their franchise quarterback.
Perhaps the Eagles will prove everyone wrong. Maybe they will develop Hurts in their quarterback factory, then trade him for a 2nd-round pick in a few years before his rookie deal expires, something no team has ever done in 20 years while also having a franchise quarterback in his prime.
Unless that happens, however, history shows that it very unlikely the selection of Hurts is going to work out for each member of the trio of Wentz, Hurts and the Eagles.
If it works out for Wentz, Hurts will never play any meaningful snaps, likely making his trade value pretty slim. If it works out for Hurts, it will be at Wentz's expense, and the monster contract the Eagles handed him will look bad. The bottom line is the Eagles almost certainly won't end up getting both their money's worth out of Wentz and the proper value of the 53rd overall pick out of Hurts.
One of the two is not going to work out.
Chances are we will be finding out sooner rather than later which one it is.
Here is a look at the last 20 drafts, with each quarterback selected in the 2nd round, and the team's quarterback situation at the time: (Per DraftHistory.com)
2019:
Drew Lock, Broncos…..No franchise QB/Joe Flacco was 34-years old
2018:
None
2017:
DeShone Kizer, Browns…No franchise QB
2016:
Christian Hackenberg, Jets…Ryan Fitzpatrick, 34-years old
2015:
None
2014:
Derek Carr, Raiders….No franchise QB
Jimmy G, Patriots…Tom Brady, 37-years old
2013:
Geno Smith, Jets…Mark Sanchez was 26-yars old, but clearly they were moving on
2012:
Brock Osweiler, Broncos….Peyton Manning, 36-years old
2011
Andy Dalton, Bengals…No franchise QB
Colin Kapernick, 49ers….Alex Smith, 27-years old
2010:
Jimmy Clausen, Panthers…No franchise QB (Drafted Cam Newton the following season)
2009:
Pat White, Dolphins…No franchise QB
2008:
Brian Brohm, Packers…Aaron Rodgers, 25 years old
Chad Henne, Dolphins…Chad Pennington, 32-years old
2007:
Kevin Kolb, Eagles…Donovan McNabb, 31-years old
Jon Beck, Dolphins…Trent Green, 37-years old
2006:
Kellen Clemens, Jets…Chad Pennington, 30-years old
Tavaris Jackson, Vikings … Brad Johnson, 38-years old
2005:
None
2004:
None
2003:
None
2002:
None
2001:
Quincy Carter, Cowboys…No franchise QB
Marques Tuiasosopo, Raiders…Rich Gannon, 31-years old
2000:
None
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
