There are plenty of ways the Eagles decision to draft Jalen Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft could play out. He could be a backup for the next four years and play at a high level when called upon, becoming Nick Foles 2.0. He could never play. He could play and struggle. He could become the next franchise quarterback.
One of the most likely-and-most talks about outcomes, however, is that he is traded — and the landscape for a potential trade is changing.
It appears that there will be very little, if any, college football in the fall, yet another devastating blow to the sports calendar issued by the COVID-19 pandemic. While player safety is (and should be) the top priority in the decision, there is no denying that no college football in the fall is going to have a major impact on the NFL and the 2021 NFL Draft.
For the Eagles, the question is whether no college football will increase Hurts' value in a potential trade.
The answer to that question comes down to how many teams will need a quarterback, how many options there will be, and how quickly those teams will want to win.
Looking ahead to next offseason, it is possible as many as 14 teams could be looking for a new quarterback. That would obviously be great news for the Eagles. The chances of close to half of the teams in the league changing their signal caller, however, feels slim.
Here are a look at those 14 teams, starting with the six that could potentially be looking for a new quarterback, and the eight that likely will be:
Could Need a Quarterback:
Carolina Panthers: Even though the Panthers just handed a big-deal to Teddy Bridgewater, it is hard to imagine they are completely convinced and ready to make him their franchise quarterback for years to come. If Bridgewater struggles the Panthers could look for a Plan B next offseason, but likely won't be moving on from Bridgewater, as they would have $20 million in dead money if they cut him after 2020.
Washington: Dwayne Haskins is a first-round pick, but with a completely new regime running the show in Washington, Haskins is not guaranteed the job in 2021.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford could be a trade piece next offseason, especially if the Lions move on from Matt Patricia. If he is, the Lions will need a young quarterback to build around. They would likely go with a quarterback in the first-round, but if they don't, they could be a potential landing spot for Hurts.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos have a ton of talent on offense. The only question is the quarterback. The job is Drew Lock's to lose. If he struggles, it is possible the Broncos go with Hurts, but they would more-than-likely go with a veteran guy they could trust to play right away.
Buffalo Bills: This is a huge year for Josh Allen, as he has a team around him ready to win, and the expectations that they should. Allen would be the fourth-year of his contract in 2021, with the fifth-year option on the table as well. If he really struggles, or is viewed as the reason the Bills don't reach their potential, it could get ugly quickly. More-than-likely, however, the Bills will go with a veteran over a younger quarterback.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan isn't going anywhere until after the 2021 season, but if the Falcons hire their head coach, it is possible they trade for Hurts after the 2020 season as Ryan's eventual replacement.
Will likely need a quarterback:
Las Vegas Raiders: Derek Carr faces a similar situation to Josh Allen in Buffalo. The difference is the Raiders could save $19 million in salary cap space if they release him after the 2020 season. Chances are the Raiders will be in the quarterback market.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jaguars are always rebuilding and always looking for a quarterback. It is unlikely Gardner Minshew will be good enough to change that.
New Orleans Saints: Brees likely won't be back in 2021. The question is whether the Saints truly believe in Taysom Hill as the next in line, or if they would take a chance on Jameis Winston. Hurts would be a great fit here if the Saints decide that either Hill or Winston aren't the answer.
Indianapolis Colts: Philip Rivers is likely playing his last season in the NFL. The question is whether the Colts will be looking for a win-now quarterback, or a young player for Frank Reich to develop and build with.
Chicago Bears: The Bears could have both a new head coach and a new quarterback in 2021. A new head coach increases the chances they would have interest in Hurts.
Pittsburgh Steelers: The chances of Ben Roethlisberger making it through the 2020 season healthy feel slim, and the idea of the Steelers not having a legit backup plan in 2021 feel even slimmer. It is important to note that the Steelers passed on Hurts twice during the 2020 NFL Draft, however.
New England Patriots: Cam Newton is on a one-year deal. If he struggles, he won't be back. If he has a bounce back season, the Patriots are going to have to decide if they want to commit big money to him. They could, but it would be surprising if they did.
Biggest Wild Card
Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys are perhaps the biggest wild card in the entire NFL quarterback carousel that could take place next offseason. Will they bring back Dak Prescott? Will they franchise him and trade him? If they don't bring back Prescott, which quarterback will they pick to replace him? Would the Eagles actually trade Hurts in the division to their rival? The answers to all of those questions will likely come before we get the answer to anything else.
Overall, it is safe to say that there should be at last five teams seriously looking for a quarterback — Raiders, Jaguars, Colts, Bears and Steelers. It could be around seven-to-eight. That is a fairly large portion of the league.
The good news for some of those teams is that there will be some quality options — there just won't be a ton.
Here are the top quarterbacks currently set to be free agents next offseason:
Dak Prescott
Cam Newton
Mitchell Trubisky
Jacoby Brisset
Tyrod Taylor
Jameis Winston
Taysom Hill
Andy Dalton
Of the group, Prescott is the only sure-fire starter in 2021. Newton could be a starter if he has a solid year in New England. Winston is likely only starting if he has a big year in New Orleans. Sure, 2020 has been weird, but is hard to imagine any team handing a starting job to Trubisky, Brisset, Taylor, Hill or Dalton. So of the teams looking for starters, only — at most — two of them might able to find answers in free agency.
If we are going on the idea that least five teams will be looking for starting quarterbacks, and there could be only two starters in free agency at most, that will leave the rest of the teams looking in the draft for either immediate help or a player to develop.
Currently, six quarterbacks seem to be protected as picks in the first two-rounds.
1st-Round:
Trevor Lawrence, Clemson (Top 5)
Justin Fields, Ohio State (Top 5)
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
2nd/3rd Round:
Jamie Newman, Georgia (2nd)
Kellen Mond, Texas A&M (3rd)
Sam Ehlinger, Texas (Late 3rd)
In any other offseason, I would now write that plenty could change between now and the NFL Draft. That is still somewhat true, but with no football being played, the boards might not move as much as usual. Players can workout for teams, they can go to the NFL Combine, but it seems like teams already have the last tape they will get on these players.
No college football season won't impact Lawrence, and likely won't impact Fields either. But it could cause guys like Lance, Newman or Mond to potentially go later than they might have otherwise. Teams might lean more towards sure things at other positions over quarterbacks they don't have enough tape on to tie their franchise too.
Which brings us back to Hurts, who has four-years of college tape already out there and by next offseason, could have some NFL tape as well.
Cleary, not many teams had a first-round grade on Hurts, since he fell to the late second round. It is possible a good chunk of the league had a second-round grade on him, and if the Eagles read the board right, then presumably a large portion had a third-round grade.
If that is the case, no college football season could cause a team to overpay for Hurts, offering up a second-round pick to the Eagles in 2021 instead of using that pick on a player they don't have as much tape on. It is hard to imagine, and feels extremely unlikely, that a team that passed on Hurts in 2020 would all the sudden offer up a first-round pick for him one-year later. If that were to happen, chances are Hurts will have played a lot — and played well — in 2020. If that is the case, than the Eagles would need to seriously considering keeping Hurts for their own long-term plans. A world where Carson Wentz has an outstanding 2020 and the Eagles get a first-round pick for Hurts feels almost impossible.
So what does this all mean?
No college football might help the Eagles slightly in a potential Hurts trade. There will be a large group of teams looking for quarterbacks with not many great options out there. The question is whether the small pool and no college football will result in the Eagles getting a first-round pick for Hurts, since flipping Hurts for a second-round pick next year — even if it is a higher one — is essentially just breaking even. The Eagles will have a new player, but they will also be one-year behind developing him to play. Getting a third-round pick for Hurts would be a bad trade.
Will no college football help the Eagles trade Hurts? Maybe.
Will no college football result in Howie Roseman looking like a genius and everyone that questions him looking like fools? Almost certainly not.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
