Over the last three seasons, since Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz have taken over the Eagles' franchise, I have a record of 50-19 picking their games.
I am currently on a four-game streak while trying desperately to avoid my 20th incorrect pick. I don't want it on my record, and I certainly don't want it to come in the playoffs. So this is not a pick I make lightly.
This game is a tough one to predict, and maybe one of the toughest since 2016. The Seahawks have been the better team this season. They have won all three games against Pederson and Wentz. They have a Super Bowl winner at quarterback.
Still, when it comes down to it, my gut is telling me to pick the Eagles.
Here is why:
Game is in Philadelphia: Some will say it isn't fair that the Seahawks have to come to Philadelphia despite having a better record. Thankfully for the Eagles, those that feel that way can't change the rules of the NFL, and this game is being played in Philadelphia — a fact that is a huge boost to the Eagles.
The main reason is how much better the Eagles' defense is at home this season as opposed to on the road. Since 2016, the Eagles are allowing an average of just 16.1 points-per-game at home — the best in the league. Teams simply don't come into Philadelphia and light up this defense often, and with how banged up the Seahawks are, it likely won't happen on Sunday. Add in that Russell Wilson is 2-4 on the road in the playoffs, as opposed to undefeated at home, and the Eagles have a big advantage with this game in Philadelphia.
Eagles' Offense: For the last year-and-a-half, watching the Eagles' offense has been very frustrating. They struggle to make big plays, they dink-and-dunk the ball and they often shoot themselves in the foot. Over the last five games, however, things have changed. Over the last five games the Eagles have scored over 30 three points times. They accomplished that four times in their first 11 games.
In fact, over the last three games, the Eagles are averaging 29.3 points-per-game — eight points more than the Seahawks are.
The Eagles are banged up on offense, and because of that, they are also a much different unit than the one that took the field the first time they played Seattle. Greg Ward, Boston Scott, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, Rob Davis — none of these players had a big role in the team's first loss to Seattle.
On Sunday, the Eagles will go into the game with a much, much better offense than their last matchup against the Seahawks.
Miles Sanders and Boston Scott: Part of the reason the Eagles' offense is so much better than it was the last time these two teams played? Miles Sanders and Boston Scott, who touched the ball a combined 17 times in the Eagles' loss to the Seahawks. Prior to the game neither player had ever totaled 100 yards on either the ground or in the passing game.
Needless to say, since then a lot has changed.
Over the Eagles' four-game winning streak the duo have combined for a whopping 798 yards, an average of 199.5 yards-per-game together. They have done damage on the ground, through the air and in the end zone, as they have combined for seven touchdowns as well.
Simply put, heading into the playoffs, there isn't a better one-two duo at running back in the league.
That is great news for the Eagles, as the Seahawks have one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL, allowing an average of 4.9 yards-per-game this season on the ground, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL. The two teams closest to the Seahawks are the Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins (tied for seventh), and the Eagles went 3-0 against those two teams this season.
If the Eagles' run game is working they are capable of dominating the time of possession and their offense is very hard to stop. The Eagles should be able to run the ball against the Seahawks behind the strong play of Sanders and Scott.
Pete Carroll and Doug Pederson: There is no question Pete Carroll is a great head coach. His Super Bowl ring proves that. What is also hard to ignore, however, is that Carroll has made some pretty questionable decisions late in games.
Not only did his decision to throw the ball cost him another Super Bowl ring, but just last week, with the division on the line, Carroll's offense got a delay-of-game penalty to push them back five yards. The sloppy play is the reason they are in Philadelphia right now and not at home waiting with a first-round Bye. In fact, Carroll is 1-3 in his last four playoff games.
Doug Pederson, on the other hand, has shown he knows exactly what buttons to press in close games his team has to win. Not only is he 4-1 in the playoffs, but he has been an underdog in each of those games. If not for a dropped pass by Alshon Jeffery, he would be 5-0.
On Sunday, an underdog once again, it is hard to pick anything but Pederson moving to 5-1 and pulling off yet another upset in the postseason.
Prediction: Eagles 24, Seahawks 17
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
