When the Phillies agreed to pay Bryce Harper $330 million over 13 years, with absolutely no opt-outs, it was obviously a massive commitment.
The team is already feeling the immediate impact of the money they spent. The interest in the team is the highest it has been in years. With all of the jerseys they have sold and new tickets fans have purchased, the team is already making back a large portion of the $26 million they will pay Harper this year.
By committing 13-years, however, the Phillies are betting that they will be getting an impact player for the majority of the deal. It is unlikely it will be all 13 years, but overall, the Phillies are hoping to get the best of Harper's career in a Phillies' uniform. If they do, they will get Hall of Fame level production.
So what are the chances that Harper will be an impact player for the Phillies for years to come?
In the book The Shift, author Russell A. Carleton takes a look at how long after players sign a massive contract they are worth the money.
To find out if long-term deals are worth it for top talents, Carleton looked at "all position players from 1999 to 2012 who finished top five in WAR at their position three years in a row." Using those players, he looked at how long they kept up that level play. Basically, if you were one of the best five players at your position in baseball, how long were you able to hold that up?
Here is what Carleton found:
One Year Later:
All Star (1-5th in WAR): 59.3%
Still pretty good (6th-15th): 26.3%
Good enough to start (16th-30th): 10.2%
Backup (31st and higher): 2.5%
Fringe (fewer than 200 plate appearances): 1.7%
Didn't play: 0.0%
Three Years Later:
All Star (1-5th in WAR): 38.1%
Still pretty good (6th-15th): 33.1%
Good enough to start (16th-30th): 15.3%
Backup (31st and higher): 7.6%
Fringe (fewer than 200 plate appearances): 1.7%
Didn't play: 4.2%
Five Years Later:
All Star (1-5th in WAR): 16.9%
Still pretty good (6th-15th): 29.7%
Good enough to start (16th-30th): 14.4%
Backup (31st and higher): 8.5%
Fringe (fewer than 200 plate appearances): 2.5%
Didn't play: 28%
As you can see, players that were able to be one of the best five in their position over a three-year stretch ended up keeping up that level of play. Over half of them were All-Stars the next year. Nearly all of them (86%) were among the top 15 at their position.
After five years, that number dipped, but not drastically.
Carelton found that in five years, of the players that were top-five at their position three years in a row, roughly 47% were still in the top 15 of their position. That is certainly a drop, but it isn't a complete plummet.
So how does this relate to Harper?
Harper has not been in the top five for WAR in right field over the last three seasons, so this study doesn't exactly tie to the Phillies new $330 million man. Many would make the argument Harper has been a top five right fielder overall, however, over the last three seasons even if the numbers don't show it.
Regardless, the Phillies have have essentially paid $330 million for the prime of Harper's career — and this study shows that they shouldn't expect a drop-off anytime soon.
You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
