The Phillies need another piece in the bullpen.
That is indisputable. It was the case prior to the start of the season, even when hope was still high. It is certainly the case after the team's first 11 games of the season.
Early on, it looks like Pat Neshek and Adam Morgan can be counted on. Betting on David Robertson to rebound is a safe bet, although his age is a bit concerning. Seranthony Dominguez is a far less certain bet, especially with how little experience he has in the majors and the way he has pitched so far this season.
The struggling bullpen has looked even worse next to an offense that even after their disastrous showing on Wednesday night, are sixth in the majors in runs-per-game at 5.82. Last season the top six teams in the majors in averages runs-per-game made the playoffs, and it would be shocking if the Phillies didn't land in the top five this season. So the bats are there.
The question is the pitching, and that question has led to a large portion of the fanbase to beg for the team to sign reliever Craig Kimbrel.
A request from their fanbase they should deny.
Would Kimbrel, at his best, be an upgrade over what the Phillies have right now? Yes, he would be.
The reality is, however, the Phillies likely won't be getting Kimbrel at his best.
To start, Kimbrel took a step back last season, his ninth in the majors. His walks went from 1.8 per nine innings in 2017 to 4.5 in 2018. His ERA nearly double from 1.43 to 2.74. His strikeout percentage dropped from 49.6% to 38.9%. His first pitch strike percentage dropped 7% and the amount of times he got himself in a 3-0 hole vs. batters more than doubled from 2.7% to 6.9%.
The decline should not be viewed as a surprise from Kimbrel. Instead it was the continuation of a trend. Three of the worst seasons of Kimbrel's career (in terms of ERA) have come in the last four seasons. Two of the worst seasons of his career in WHIP have come over the last three seasons. The same can be said for walks and strikeouts. The arrow on Kimbrel is pointing down, and with 532.2 innings on his arm, the chances it goes back up aren't great — especially by signing him this late.
The team found out first-hand what missing the majority of spring training can do to a pitcher when they brought Jake Arrieta in a month after pitchers and catchers reported. In Arrieta's first five starts he allowed 11 runs. He allowed three runs in his next five.
If the Phillies were to sign Kimbrel today, it might take him two weeks to get into a game, and then another month to get comfortable. There is a small chance he returns to the player he was last season — there is an even smaller chance he returns to the considerably better player he was the season before.
There is also the financial aspect of the decision to take into account.
According to Spotrac.com, the Phillies have $17 million in money to spend before they hit the luxury tax. That might sound like a lot, but it really means that unless they are going to find a team willing to give up a cost-controlled player, they are likely going to be able to make one big-time move with that space before going over the luxury tax.
It can be debated if going over the luxury tax in general is a move the Phillies should make this season. With a roster that has components of a World Series winning team, there is an argument that should spent whatever they can to give themselves the best chance.
Until they show they are willing to go over the luxury tax, however, it should be assumed they won't -- which means the Phillies get one shot at adding a significant piece to the bullpen. Panicking after the team's latest loss is tempting, but blowing their one big shot at helping this bullpen on Kimbrel is not a risk worth taking.
Instead, they should wait, count on their bats to keep them in the race, and see if a better, younger option comes along.
You can hear more about Kimbrel, and the Phillies' recent struggles, on the latest episode of High Hopes:
You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
