The Eagles are entering arguably the most important draft in the franchise's history in a very, very long time. They have three picks in the first two rounds. They need an infusion of youth. They need talent on rookie salaries, especially if they are going to pay Carson Wentz.
And once again, as has been the case with almost every big decision with the Eagles for the last nine years, Howie Roseman will have his finger prints all over it.
Figuring out Roseman's track record in the NFL Draft is not easy. He has held the title of either General Manager or Executive Vice President of Football Operations since the 2010 NFL Draft, but has had varying level of controls in each.
While his track record might not be easy to figure out, however, one thing is clear — The Eagles have done a much better job than you would think in the NFL Draft since 2010 when Roseman gained a significant voice in the decisions.
Whether it was his first two years, when Andy Reid had final say, or the Chip Kelly years, when Roseman had to work under Kelly's strict guidelines for prospects, the Eagles have done a good job finding talent in all levels of the draft.
Here is a look at how each round has gone for the Eagles since 2010, excluding 2015 when Kelly was in complete control of the draft.
1st Round: Derek Barnett (DE), Carson Wentz (QB), Marcus Smith (DE), Lane Johnson (OT), Fletcher Cox (DT), Danny Watkins (OG), Brandon Graham (DE)
Hits: Barnett, Wentz, Johnson, Cox, Graham
Misses: Smith, Watkins
Analysis: The expectation in the first round is clear — find a Pro-Bowl level talent that is a consistent starter. Roseman has done that. You can give Reid credit for Graham, but if you do that, then you have to give him blame for Watkins as well. You can give Kelly credit for Johnson, but then you have to blame him for Smith. No matter how you slice it, with Roseman in the draft room since 2010 — excluding 2015 — the Eagles have hit on five of their seven first-round picks, a very high percentage considering only two picks have been in the top 10. Of the seven players Roseman has had a hand in selecting in the first round since 2010, five played a role in helping them win a Super Bowl. That is incredibly impressive.
2nd Round: Dallas Goedert (TE), Sidney Jones (CB), Jordan Matthews (WR), Zach Ertz (TE), Mychal Kendricks (LB), Vinny Curry (DE), Jaiquawn Jarrett (S), Nate Allen (S)
Hits: Goedert, Matthews, Ertz, Kendricks, Curry, Allen
Misses: Jones, Jarrett
Analysis: Like the first round, Roseman has done an excellent job finding talent in the second round. Ertz is on a Hall-of-Fame track in his career. Goedert, although only drafted last year, already looks like an excellent pick. Kendricks and Curry helped win the team a Super Bowl and Matthews was extremely productive during his time in Eagles' green. The misses have been bad, as Jarrett played in just 13 games with the Eagles and Jones has been unable to stay healthy. Still, even with Jones as a miss (and you can certainly make the argument the verdict is far from settled on Jones), hitting on six of eight second-round picks in an extremely high batting average.
3rd Round: Rasul Douglas (CB), Isaac Seumalo (OG), Josh Huff (WR), Bennie Logan (DT), Nick Foles (QB), Curtis Marsh (CB), Daniel Te'o-Neshiem (DE)
Hits: Douglas, Seumalo, Logan, Foles,
Misses: Huff, Marsh, Te'o-Neshiem
Analysis: The third round is where Roseman has run into some trouble. There is no denying finding talent is harder, and the expectations are lower, the deeper the draft gets. The third-round, however, is still a round where the team should be able to find starters. So far, Roseman has found just one player that started consistently for the Eagles during his time in Philadelphia — Bennie Logan. Foles is obviously a complicated player to judge, but if you wanted, you could say Roseman found his Super Bowl winning quarterback in the third round. Overall, a hit rate of 57% in the third round is certainly not bad.
4th Round: Avonte Maddox (CB), Josh Sweat (DE), Mack Hollins (WR), Jaylen Watkins (DB), Matt Barkley (QB), Brandon Boykin (CB), Casey Matthews (LB), Alex Henery (K), Trevard Lindley (DB), Keenan Clayton (LB), Mike Kafka (QB), Clay Harbor (TE)
Hits: Maddox, Watkins, Boykin, Matthews, Harbor
Misses: Hollins, Barkley, Henery, Lindley, Clayton, Kafka
Unclear: Sweat
Analysis: The fourth-round has not bene stellar Roseman, but it hasn't been a disaster either. Roseman found quality players in Watkins, Boykins and Harbor. Matthews never played at an elite level, to say the least, but did appear in 64 games and started 16. That is pretty good for a fourth-round pick. Maddox after one year looks to be a potential steal. The worst misses at this point seem to be either Hollins or Barkley. The Eagles traded up for Barkley, although that has Kelly's fingerprints all over it. Hollins can still turn into a hit, but as of now, has not turned into a consistent contributor.
5th Round: Donnel Pumphrey (RB), Shelton Gibson (WR), Nate Gerry (LB), Wendell Smallwood (RB), Halapoulivaati Vaitai (OT), Taylor Hart (DT), Ed Reynolds (DB), Earl Wolff (S), Dennis Kelly (OT), Dion Lewis (RB), Julian Vandervelde (OG), Ricky Sapp (DE), Riley Cooper (WR)
Hits: Smallwood, Vaitai, Kelly, Lewis, Vandervelde, Cooper
Misses: Pumphrey, Gibson, Gerry, Hart, Reynolds, Wolff, Sapp
Analysis: How you judge a hit-or-miss in the fifth round is somewhat subjective. The Eagles have not found any stud, diamond-in-the-rough players. They have found players that ended up contributing more than expected, however. Vaitai started in the Super Bowl. Cooper caught 18 touchdowns. Lewis is still a starting-level running back in the NFL, although not with the Eagles. Vandervelde appeared in 17 games. Again, not Pro Bowl players or starters — but contributors. The misses, are obvious, with the biggest being Pumphrey, who never appeared in a game.
6th Round: Matt Pryor (OG), Elijah Qualls (DT), Blake Countess (S), Marvin McNutt (WR), Brandon Washington (G), Jason Kelce (C), Brian Rolle (LB), Charles Scott (RB)
Hits: Kelce
Misses: Qualls, Countess, McNutt, Washington, Rolle, Scott
Unclear: Pryor
Analysis: The sixth-round, as is likely the case with most general managers, has been a bloodbath for Roseman. He has made eight picks and as of now has only found one starter — granted, that starter has been arguably his best overall pick in the draft when you consider the round and the level of play.
7th Round: Jordan Mailata (OT), Jalen Mills (CB), Alex McCalister (DE), Joe Walker (LB), Beau Allen (DT), Joe Kruger (DE), Jordan Poyer (DB), David King (DE), Bryce Brown (RB), Greg Llloyd (LB), Stanley Havili (FB), Jamar Chaney (LB), Jeff Owens (DT), Kurt Coleman (S)
Hits: Mills, Walker, Allen, Poyer, Brown, Chaney, Coleman
Misses: McCalister, Kruger, King, Lloyd, Havili, Owens
Unclear: Mailata
Analysis: Where Roseman has really shined is in the seventh round. Picks that are normally considered throwaways have turned into starters for the Eagles. Mills started on the Super Bowl team and has been their best cornerback since being drafted. Allen played a large role as well. Poyer did not play for the Eagles, but is clearly a talented player as he is still starting the NFL. Players like Brown, Chaney and Coleman all contributed for multiple seasons at a fairly high level, and definitely exceeded expectations. To put in perspective how good Roseman has been in the final round, he has hit on more picks (seven) than he has missed on — and this is before Mailata even takes a snap in the NFL.
Overall: Since 2010, excluding 2015, Roseman has had a huge hand in 69 draft picks for the Eagles. Overall, 34 have been hits, 32 have been misses and three are still unclear. Take away the three picks that are still unclear, and Roseman has hit on 51% of his picks overall — a much more impressive number than it might seem considering how hard it is to draft prospects. In the first two rounds, where the pressure is really on to find talent, Roseman has hit on 73% of his picks. Include the third round and that number dips slightly, but is still an impressive 68%.
If you want to look at Roseman's track record since 2016, when there is no doubt he has had final say, he has hit on both first-round picks (Barnett, Wentz) and 75% of his four picks in the first two-rounds. He does not have, as of yet, one really bad miss on any of the six picks he has made in the first-three rounds — although Jones might end up being his first.
It is now, for the eighth year, up to Roseman to make sure there isn't a second-or-third drafted this Thursday night.
You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
