Bryce Harper is struggling with the fastball, in his age 26 season, two months into a thirteen year contract with the Phillies.
I wrote about this less than a month ago, and really, not much has changed -- although his big night on Wednesday with three hits, four RBIs and one home run was certainly encouraging.
On the season, this is Harper's numbers against the fastball: .247 AVG/.452 SLG/.823 OPS/16.4 SwStr% (swings and misses on the fastball)
The 16.4 SwStr% is far, and away a career high for Harper. Not great!
Teams are challenging Harper with the fastball more and more and Harper is not making them pay. The Brewers plan to Harper all weekend was fastballs up, because right now he can't hit it. The fastball up directly coincides with Harper's swing path. The fastball up goes right above his hands and unless he levels out his swing he's not going to consistently catch up to that pitch. I think leveling out his swing would be good for Harper.
When Harper is at his best it's when he's hitting line-drives that turn into home runs rather than just trying to crank everything. Wednesday night proved that. Until he changes this approach teams are going to continue to punish him with high fastballs.
Now, many have hypothesized that Harper's skills have diminished. That a 26 year old, who is in peak physical condition has lost bat speed and that's why he can't catch up to the fastball.
I find that very hard to believe. I would more lean on the side of this is baseball, pitchers have detailed scouting reports and plans going into each game, and at bat, and it's on the hitter to adjust. I will bet on Bryce Harper, a guy with that level of talent and makeup to figure out how to hit fastballs again. I don't believe at 26 that he's losing bat speed.
There's one prime example as to why I don't believe that Harper's skills are diminishing and it's this mystery player below.
This is our mystery players numbers against fastballs in 2018: .230 AVG/.502 SLG/.806 OPS/13.4 SwStr%
Who is this mystery player? None other than NL MVP front-runner Cody Bellinger.
Were Cody Bellinger's skills diminishing at the age of 22? Was he losing bat speed with his old age? I would guess not, and this season is proving it.
Two things can be true here.
Bryce Harper can be struggling with the fastball. Bryce Harper's skills are not diminishing at 26
Harper just has to adjust, Bellinger did it and now he's taken off. Wednesday night might have been the first sign of a Harper turnaround.
This happens all the time in baseball. Guys go through a rough patch with a certain pitch, adjust and boom it's fixed (until the next hole is discovered by opposing teams.) Just remember that it's a marathon, not a sprint.
Bryce Harper will figure out fastballs once again, and we'll all calm down, instead of over-thinking the next thirteen years of our lives.
