Ahh yes, the moment you've all been waiting for.
The official Jack Fritz Perfect, and somewhat realistic, Phillies Offseason Plan is upon us.
Now, as we all know, this is a massive offseason for the Phillies. As important as signing Bryce Harper and acquiring J.T Realmuto was last offseason, the Phillies now have an almost more daunting task than acquiring those two-- putting together a team that is ready to win now without the help of a deep farm system behind it and a luxury tax that they seem keen in staying under. The harsh reality for the Phillies is that they will have to spend to fill their holes. It's not the most efficient way to run a baseball team, but they opened their window of contention and have a core that is in their prime right now. With the lack of impact talent in their farm system, the Phillies don't have a choice but to continue to spend and hope Alec Bohm or Spencer Howard can come up and make an impact-- if they're not traded.
Let's get to THE perfect offseason:
Move #1: Trade Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Adam Haseley and Adonis Medina for Francisco Lindor
A couple of days ago, Jim Bowden laid out this possible trade for the Phillies to get Francisco Lindor.
I personally don't think that's enough given that Cole Irvin is bad, but Bohm and Stott could be centerpieces to a Lindor trade. For me, this came down to, would I rather trade Hoskins and Spencer Howard in a Lindor trade, or just Bohm. I chose Bohm even though I think he's going to be an impact bat very soon. Parting with him would hurt, but Francisco Lindor is Francisco Lindor.
Priority #1 for the Phillies this offseason needs to be acquiring another blue-chip talent to pair with Harper and Realmuto. Winning a World Series without at least three blue-chippers is very hard in baseball these days and luckily for the Phillies there are three high impact bats available this offseason that fit the bill. Along with Lindor, Kris Bryant is available for the right price and so is Mookie Betts. The Phillies may not have the prospects of the other teams in baseball, but they are one of the few teams that have the combination of good prospects (Bohm, Howard) and the financial flexibility to add one of those three to the payroll if necessary. Obviously, the Phillies would need to plan to hand out another massive contract if they traded for Lindor this offseason, but you don't make this trade without that thought in mind.
Move #2: Sign Zach Wheeler for a 5 year $100 million deal
Signing Zach Wheeler is scary but if the Phillies are trading for Lindor, Bryant or Betts, they need to have money available to re-sign those guys. They can't realistically give a $200+ million contract to Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg and be able to re-sign a Lindor, Bryant or Betts, so they settle on Wheeler.
Wheeler should be better than he is, and has injury concern, but if he stays healthy the Phillies would at worst be getting a good pitcher with the upside for more. His second halves in 2018 and 2019 show that Wheeler can be dominant (1.68 ERA in the second half of '18/2.83 ERA in the second half of '19,) but usually when you're handing out $100+ million you're getting more of a sure-thing. Wheeler wouldn't exactly be a sure-thing, but they don't really have a choice at the moment.
Move #3: Sign Mike Moustakas to a 2 year $24 million deal
After having to sign one year deals each of the last two offseasons, Mike Moustakas finally signs a multi-year deal with the Phillies. In Moustakas, the Phillies would be getting 30+ homers and they wouldn't have to forfeit a draft pick. When GM Matt Klentak was on with the Midday show a few weeks back, he made it very clear that they were not eager to give up draft picks in this free agent class. They would have to give up their second round pick to sign Wheeler, but in signing Moustakas they would not, which is why they should lean towards signing him instead of a guy like Josh Donaldson.
Moustakas for that money is a steal and would add some serious thump bottom of this lineup.
Move #4: Trade Nick Pivetta, Mickey Moniak, Rafael Marchan and Odubel Herrera to the Pirates for Kyle Crick and Jameson Taillon
Not totally sure what gets this deal done, but the Phillies should be doing everything they can this offseason to try and acquire Jameson Taillon from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Taillon is going to miss the 2020 season with Tommy John surgery, but when he's healthy, Taillon has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation type starter, and without others coming through the pipeline, the Phillies could be getting one on-the-cheap in this deal.
Losing Pivetta would obviously hurt me, but the Pirates could definitely take a shot on a change-of-scenery guy that has obvious upside. Moniak showed some signs at Double A last year and obviously has the pedigree of being the number 1 overall pick in the draft in 2016. Marchan is a catcher that the Phillies likely won't need with Realmuto here, but hits everywhere he goes and getting away from Odubel Herrera would be massive for this team. Again, not sure what gets that's deal done, but the Phillies should be all over it if possible.
Move #5: Sign Cole Hamels to a 2 year $20 million deal
It's a no-brainer move for the Phillies. They need starting pitching help, Hamels wants to come back and it would be a huge PR win for the team.
Hamels also has some gas left in the tank.
Before an oblique injury derailed his 2019 season, Hamels had a 2.98 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 99 innings. Injury risk is always a concern when you're talking about bringing in an old pitcher, but Hamels seems motivated to staying healthy in 2020.
Bringing Hamels back is the perfect combination of a move that makes sense on paper and it gives him another chance to go down Broad Street a World Champion.
Move #6: Sign Dellin Betances to a 1 year $8 million deal
Betances is a year removed from being one of the top relievers in the game, and went to 4 All Star games under new Phillies manager, Joe Girardi, in New York.
Unfortunately for him, he spent most of last season rehabbing from shoulder and lat injuries, and when he finally did get on the mound for the Yankees in September he… partially tore his left Achilles. It wasn't a great year for Betances but it is an opportunity for the Phillies to strike.
The Phillies desperately need guys that strike guys out, out of the bullpen and in his last 5 seasons, Betances averaged a SO/9 of 14.6. He has wipe-out stuff and signing him would go a long way towards giving Girardi some good options late in games next season.
Move #7: Sign Will Harris to a 2 year $18 million deal
Harris has been a machine for the Astros in the last couple of years, appearing in 60+ games in four out of the last five years. Even in his age 35 season, Harris put up a 1.50 ERA and struck out over 9 guys per 9 innings. The age is tricky, but he would give Girardi another reliable option at the back-end of the bullpen and even though Tommy Hunter, David Robertson and Pat Neshek didn't work out for this team, they can't be afraid to go after relievers in free agency.
Final minor moves to shape the roster:
Trade Nick Williams and Vince Velasquez to the Orioles for Mychal Givens
Trade Jhailyn Ortiz to the Mariners for Austin Adams
Sign Starlin Castro to a one year $8 million contract
Sign Austin Romine to be the back-up catcher for 1 year $1.5 million
Mychal Givens would give Girardi another solid bullpen piece and he's entering into the final year of his deal with the Orioles.
Austin Adams is an upside bullpen pitcher with a wipe-out slider that really only started putting it together in his age 29 season.
Starlin Castro would give the Phillies the ability to play him at both second base and third if necessary, and right-handed pop off the bench.
Austin Romine is a solid back-up catcher that would hopefully end the Andrew Knapp era, and he played under Girardi in New York.
The Opening Day Roster:
C: J.T Realmuto
1B: Rhys Hoskins
2B: Jean Segura
SS: Francisco Lindor
3B: Mike Moustakas
LF: Andrew McCutchen
CF: Scott Kingery
RF: Bryce Harper
Bench: Jay Bruce, Starlin Castro, Austin Romine
SP: Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler, Cole Hamels, Jake Arrieta, Spencer Howard/Zach Eflin
RP: Hector Neris, Dellin Betances, Will Harris, Kyle Crick, Mychal Givens, Austin Adams, Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarez, Adam Morgan
