Aaron Nola struggling this much was certainly not something many of us could have projected heading into the 2019 season.
Nola was unbelievable last year. He finished top three in the Cy Young voting and you could pretty much pencil in seven innings and less than three runs every time out.
In 2019, that hasn't been the case and many Phillies fans are wondering what's up with our ace.
Here's what's ailing Aaron Nola in 2019.
1. The long-ball
Aaron Nola home runs allowed in the 2018 season before September? Eight.
Aaron Nola home runs allowed since? Fourteen.
His HR/9 sits at 2.93, last year it was 0.72. That isn't great.
Nola's riding fastball is electric, the problem is that he's leaving it out in front of the plate far too often this season and guys aren't missing it. The same goes for his curveball.
Nola's barrell% right now sits at 13.6%, his barrel% last season? 4.6%.
Guys are barreling up Nola like we haven't really seen before and it's causing the ball to fly out of the ballpark.
2. Strikeout's down/Walks up
The weirdest part about Nola's 2019 so far has been the uncharacteristic control problems. Not even just walking guys, but missing in the zone.
Nola is striking out guys at a 25% clip right now which is slightly down from the 27% he put up last season. The bigger worry here is that his BB% has skyrocketed to 18%, up from 7% last season.
Much of that can be attributed to falling behind batters from the jump.
The most important pitch in baseball is strike one.
In 2018, Nola got ahead 0-1 in 70% of his at bats. So far this season he's only getting ahead 0-1 47% of the time.
Generating soft contact is fine, but what made Nola so good last season was his ability to miss bats. So far this season that hasn't been the case. Between the barrel% referenced above and his hard hit%, that currently sits at 40% (up from 31% in 2018), Nola hasn't been able to fool guys as much as he did last season.
Combine that, with the command struggles and you can see why Nola is off to a rough start in 2019.
Now, why is Nola not striking out as many batters…
3. No feel for a change-up
The main reason Nola hasn't looked like Nola this season is that he hasn't been able to get a feel for his change-up and it's turned him into a two-pitch pitcher.
When Nola was going right last season he had three legit devastating pitches that had hitters guessing. So far this season, Nola's been a two-pitch pitcher. Two-pitch pitchers get hit (looking at you, Nick Pivetta).
Nola's change-up usage right now sits at 13%, down from 20% last season. In 99 pitches last night, only ten were change-ups. That signals to me that Nola isn't totally confident with that pitch right now. If he was, he'd be mixing it in in favorable counts all night long.
That just hasn't been the case so far this season.
Now, should we be worried about Nola?
Probably not.
Last night wasn't all on him. Harper misjudged the flyball in the first and Maikel Franco flubbed a routine ground-ball in the 7th that got the ball rolling. The home runs to Yan Gomes and Howie Kendrick happened, but Nola was cruising at that point, and had the error not happened, that inning probably goes a little differently.
Nola's a really good pitcher, with a good track record, that's going through a bit of a rough patch. He'll be okay, but the Phillies can ill-afford for this to go on much longer.
With question marks behind him, the Phillies need Nola to be Nola soon.
