It's the only path.
If the Phillies want to compete for a World Series during Bryce Harper's prime, the debate over whether or not to exceed baseball's luxury tax threshold this winter shouldn't be a difficult one.
As MLB's Winter Meetings begin, the Phillies are once again a team to watch. Last year, it was about stupid money. This year it's about the bottom line.
After last week's out-of-nowhere $118M contract Zack Wheeler, it would be disingenuous to call the Phillies and team owner John Middleton frugal. We're talking about a franchise that's spent more money on free agents than any team in the sport over the last two-plus calendar years.
But that doesn't mean Middleton or Phillies ownership get a pass if the spending stops now, or has a self-imposed limit.
The Phillies have never exceeded baseball's luxury tax. In the aftermath of the Wheeler deal, several reports indicated that going over this winter would be unlikely. That simple fact could derail the 2020 season before it begins.
Right now, the Phillies are on the hook for just under $190M on the competitive balance tax calculations for next year's team. The limit is $208M. That would only leave general manager Matt Klentak a little over $18M to find another infielder, starting pitcher and bullpen arm (or two). With a less-than-flush farm system, the idea of simply trading for cheap, pre-arbitration eligible players at all those spots is fantasy, not reality. The Phillies have no choice but to use free agency, and $18M won't nearly be enough.
The Phillies aren't the only team wrestling with the tax, and it's penalties (20 percent tax on all overages for first time offenders that exceed the limit by less than $20M). The Yankees have been focused on staying under for years. The Dodgers have slashed payroll in order to avoid the tax. The Cubs could shake up a championship group due to the tax. The Red Sox just hired Rays executive Chaim Bloom with the edict of getting under the tax ASAP.
But those teams have luxuries the Phillies don't: Brilliant baseball minds, robust and fruitful analytics departments, and outstanding player development systems.
Asking the Phillies to spend more on an already-expensive team isn't being greedy. It's being realistic.
In a perfect world, Klentak's infrastructure would be on the cusp of churning out big league contributor after big league contributor. The farm system would be flush with depth, and ready to be used for impact trades. The Houston Astros don't go near the tax because they don't need to in order to win. The Phillies don't live in that world.
Middleton and Klentak sped up a rebuilding process, and now the team is in its window to win. In 2020, Bryce Harper will be in his age-27 season. Wheeler will be 30. Jean Segura will be 30. Jake Arrieta and Andrew McCutchen will be 33 and 34, respectively. J.T. Realmuto will be 29. This isn't a young group. Wasting time or prioritizing the future makes zero sense on a team with this much invested both financially and through team-building assets (high draft picks surrendered for signing Arrieta, Wheeler, Harper, Carlos Santana; trading Sixto Sanchez for Realmuto).
Exceeding the tax on a yearly basis can be problematic (including having draft spots lowered) for sustainability. Forfeiting high draft picks for free agents isn't a path to long-term success. But the Phillies should have a model to thread the needle while maximizing the core already in place. We're talking about a team with over $70M slated to come off the books following the 2020 season. A quick reset of the tax could occur just one year from now, lessening the long-term impact.
Unlike last winter, this isn't about the pursuit of one or two (Harper, Manny Machado) superstars. It doesn't have to be Anthony Rendon. It doesn't have to be Josh Donaldson. It doesn't have to be Stephen Strasburg. But more pieces must arrive to complete the puzzle.
In April 2017, Middleton did an in-studio interview with Angelo Cataldi and the WIP Morning Show, with this quote standing out.
"We're going to get that trophy back somehow, or I'm going to die trying," Middleton said. "That's just the way it's going to be. The only reason professional sports teams–I shouldn't say the only reason, but the most important reason professional sports teams exist–is to win. And if you're not aiming to win, then you really don't belong owning a sports team, in my opinion."
The Phillies now sit on a path where the only aim at winning must include exceeding the luxury tax. We'll soon see how much Middleton meant what he said, and if 2020 is a season worth being truly excited for.
