Baseball is finally coming back!
After a long, drawn out negotiation, baseball is finally set to return. Now we can stop debating players vs. owners and start focusing on what really matters: The game.
With the idea of Opening Day on the horizon again, it's easy to wish we were back in March and a full, 162-game season could be around the corner. But despite wanting to wish away every reason for a shortened season, this reality now exists: The Phillies have a way better chance to do damage and make the playoffs now than they did before the world was put on hold and a labor dispute robbed us of more games.
I was all set to pick the Phillies to win about 86 games this year, and likely just miss the playoffs. The biggest reason: Lack of depth and a roster just not quite ready or good enough for the grind of a marathon in a very good and competitive National League.
But things have now changed.
Here's why the Phillies are set up to contend at a higher level now, assuming the seven players that have contracted COVID-19 can recover and baseball's health protocols keep the roster as safe as possible for the duration of this wacky season.
Bryce Harper: The shorter the season, the better chance Harper stakes a real NL MVP claim. We're talking about one of baseball's fastest starters, with a career OPS over 1.000 in the first month of the season. In fact, the best two months of Harper's career have been in the first two months of seasons. He's a fast starter, which will be a key for success this summer.
Here are Bryce's numbers through 60 games over the last five seasons (thanks to WIP Afternoon Show producer and High Hopes' Jack Fritz for the research on this one.)
2019: .243 AVG/.355 OBP/.832 OPS/11 HR
2018: .226 AVG/.366 OBP/.881 OPS/18 HR
2017: .323 AVG/.432 OBP/1.057 OPS/15 HR
2016: .257 AVG/.408 OBP/.927 OPS/13 HR
2015: .328 AVG/.464 OBP/1.171 OPS/20 HR
Aaron Nola: Here's an alarming trend that can (hopefully) be avoided for Nola this season. In the last two years, the Phillies ace has wilted down the stretch.
April-August 2018: 2.10 ERA
September 2018: 3.72 ERA
April-August 2019: 3.45 ERA
September 2019: 6.51 ERA
Nola hasn't yet shown an ability to dominate for a full year, and still have enough left in the tank to push into (and through) October. He could be built for excellence in a short season.
Depth: The longer the season, the better of teams with depth (Dodgers, Yankees, Rays) will be. In a sprint, holes can be covered up more easily.
Andrew McCutchen: The timing of this season (delayed, then shortened) feels like the perfect recipe for an aging former MVP coming off a torn ACL and rehab. The Phillies can get a full year out of McCutchen, and not have to worry about overusing the veteran.
Spencer Howard: This one is gigantic. The only reason Howard wasn't in the mix for a rotation spot prior to the season was due to a season innings limit and trying to preserve the 120-or-so inning he had for the stretch run. Now? There's no minor league season, and Howard won't have to worry about saving innings. He needs to continue to develop, needs innings and might be the best arm the Phillies have. We could see a difference maker in the rotation right away.
DH: The universal DH isn't great for fans who enjoy the strategy of the game and thinking through managerial moves. But it sure is good for this particular Phillies team. Jay Bruce can get a ton of at-bats vs. righties. McCutchen can get off his feet. J.T. Realmuto can have rest days without leaving the lineup. Alec Bohm could come up and contribute. Joe Girardi will have plenty of options.
