'What if' is one of my favorite sports thought exercises. There's no right, no wrong. It's like a strong sports take rooted in nothing more than an educated guess and imagination. So as the city of Philadelphia and WIP listeners gather for Andy Reid Appreciation Day, this what if is on my mind: What if Big Red never left?
Yes, I'm talking about the Eagles retaining Andy Reid after the 2012 season. After a 4-12 season. After the disappointing Dream Team of 2011. After 14 years of not winning a Super Bowl. I'm talking about erasing the Chip Kelly years from our collective memory, but also reworking the entire framework of the sport. The butterfly effect obvious includes the current Eagles, Doug Pederson and a storybook 2017 season and Super Bowl that don't occur.
Let's start with this before going down the rabbit hole of year-by-year guesses and predictions on how an elongated Reid tenure in Philadelphia would have went down: The Eagles would be in a better place as a franchise if Reid never left. That may come off as ridiculous because, at least as of this moment, Reid has never won the Lombardi Trophy. The Eagles have, without Reid at the helm.
But the year-by-year success rate of post-Eagles Reid vs. non-Eagles Reid is really a clear and simple picture of why Philadelphia would have a better and healthier football team had this scenario played out.
Reid since he left: 77-35, six postseason appearances, two conference title games, one Super Bowl appearance
Eagles since Reid left: 65-47, four postseason appearances, one conference title game, one Super Bowl appearance, one Super Bowl championship
You can make a compelling case that Reid needed a fresh start, needed to grow, and needed to get out of Philadelphia to become a better coach. But I think that feeling is something we want to believe rather than anything rooted in reality.
Reid has been an outstanding coach for the better part of two decades. His star and career fell in 2012, in the midst of a family and personal crisis. To say he could have never recovered to win again with the Eagles is silly. Reid could have undergone the same evolution as a head coach here or anywhere. Bill Cowher had a bad year, then won it all. Bill Belichick went 5-11 in New England before starting a dynasty. It's in the DNA of great coaches to adjust and adapt.
With that established, here's my take on an all-time Eagles what if.
2013: Reid, given a second chance to rebuild the franchise by owner Jeffrey Lurie, embraces run-pass option elements into the offense. In a surprise, second-year quarterback Nick Foles takes to the system in training camp and beats out veteran Mike Vick for the starting quarterback job. The Eagles go 9-7, barely missing the postseason.
2014: Foles emerges as a star in Reid's offense, Fletcher Cox comes into his own as a dominant defensive lineman and first-round pick Brandin Cooks combines with DeSean Jackon to take the top of defenses. Reid's studying of the college game now has the Eagles offense incorporating RPOs and speed that was never present a decade prior. Philadelphia goes 10-6, but blows a 14-0 lead in the first round of the playoffs to the Green Bay Packers.
2015: For the first time in three years, the heat shines hotly on Reid to take the Eagles into and make noise in the postseason. "Now or never" is theme. After a 1-4 start to the season, WIP is taking "fire Andy!" calls by the hour. The Eagles rally to win 9 of the last 11, capture the NFC East, and take down the Seahawks in the first round before losing in heartbreaking fashion to the 15-1 Panthers in the Divisional Round. Offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is given a ton of credit for the offensive turnaround that spurred a long winning streak.
2016: Foles, a controversial figure at quarterback due to up-and-down play (high highs, low lows, but featuring a clutch gene that Reid loves) is awarded a new four-year contract putting him in the middle of the pack of starting quarterbacks. Reid believes a championship-caliber quarterback is under his wing, but general manager Howie Roseman and assistant GM Brett Veach begin doing due diligence on the upcoming quarterback classes coming out of college football.
Despite rumors surrounding Cal's Jared Goff and North Dakota State's Carson Wentz, the Eagles stand pat at pick 25 and select Ohio State wide receiver Michael Thomas to replace the aging Jackson. Thomas, Cooks and catch-machine Zach Ertz give the Eagles one of the game's most fearsome passing attacks.
Schedule breaks and an opportunistic defense lead to a 12-4 season and No. 2 seed in the NFC. Foles struggles in the first half, before turning it on in a home Divisional Round game. The Eagles drop the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta on a controversial call, but many start to question Foles' status as the quarterback to take the team over the top.
2017: Roseman, Veach and Reid identify Texas Tech's Patrick Mahomes as a once-in-a-generation prospect worth trading a haul for, and the Eagles do just that in surrendering multiple future top picks to move up from No. 27 to the No. 10 overall selection to land the quarterback of the future. Roseman insisted on keeping that year's second rounder, a pick used on little-known Tennessee dual-threat back named Alvin Kamara.
Mahomes plays intermittently during his rookie season for a banged-up Foles, showing immense potential. When the Eagles blow a home Wild Card round game to the Saints, Reid knows what he has to do.
2018: Foles is traded to the Kansas City Chiefs, a team still trying to pick itself up off the ground after years of losing. Mahomes starts from Day 1, and defies all expectations. In what was touted as a rebuilding year because of an aging defense, Mahomes throws for 50 touchdowns and the Eagles go 13-3. The season ends with an overtime NFC Title Game loss to Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams.
2019: Reid brings back Steve Spagnuolo to coach the defense, and Roseman spends big money to land safety Tyron Mathieu and defensive end Frank Clark, the latter of which causes discontent among fans due to past off-the-field incidents. Mahomes takes a slight step back from his MVP season, but a 12-4 season is capped off by the star quarterback rallying the team from back-to-back postseason deficits. The Eagles capture the NFC Championship, and Reid is the toast of the town. WIP plans an Andy Reid Appreciation Day before a Super Bowl 54 date with the Tennessee Titans.
Reid, Mahomes, Cooks, Thomas, Kamara, Ertz and the most explosive offense in the sport, but no Super Bowl 52. A trade almost no Eagles fan would make, but one that feels like it would have had a non-zero chance of actually happening if Reid wasn't fired all those years ago.
