With the Philadelphia Phillies agreeing to a 13-year/$330 million contract with six-time All-Star rightfielder Bryce Harper Wednesday, perhaps the most anticipated free-agent stint in baseball history is over. That frees up three logjams to come to the forefront, all of which have implications on the Phillies.
1. One way or another, Nick Williams looks to be the odd-man-out
One of the most ironic parts about Bryce Harper signing with the Phillies is that it likely took Nick Williams from being the Phillies starting right fielder, to potentially not even being on the roster on Opening Day. What's the ironic part? Scott Boras spent months negotiating a record-setting deal for Harper with the Phillies, but signing Harper pushes out another one of Boras' clients in Williams.
If we assume Odubel Herrera's hamstring injury won't prevent him from being ready for Opening Day, he, Harper and Andrew McCutchen are locks to make the Opening Day roster. If all things were equal, Williams would likely make the Opening Day roster over Aaron Altherr and Roman Quinn. But all things aren't equal. Both Altherr and Quinn are out of minor league options, while Williams has two remaining. Both Altherr and Quinn can also play center field, and though Williams has played center field, he doesn't grade out well in a corner outfield spot, let alone in center.
So one option is that Williams could start the season with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, despite hitting 17 home runs and driving in 50 RBIs a season ago. He would obviously be overqualified for that.
Another option is that the Phillies trade Williams, though it's not exactly clear what his value would be on the market. He has tremendous raw power, but will probably never hit for a high batting average and has graded out poorly as a fielder at all levels.
Given Quinn's injury history - and the fact that he's already dealing with an oblique injury - the Phillies could trade him or expose him to waivers by attempting to option him to Triple-A. But for as much as his health has impeded his career, he has lightning speed and gets good reads in the outfield. He could be a very valuable postseason weapon.
Altherr, meanwhile, did have a disastrous 2018 season, but it came a year after he slashed .272/.340/.516 with 19 home runs and 65 RBIs. The Phillies certainly won't option Altherr, 28, and probably would be selling low in a trade on a player that looked on the cusp of a breakout two seasons ago.
The sad part about this for Williams is he actually has a much better track record coming off the bench than Altherr. Williams' aggressive approach allowed him to hit .333 with three home runs and eight RBIs in 36 pinch-hit appearances in 2018. Altherr, meanwhile, hit just .220 in 50 pinch-hit at-bats in 2018. He has a .194 career batting average in 72 pinch-hit appearances.
But again, all things aren't equal.
Given the injury histories of Quinn and Altherr, Williams may be more valuable to the Phillies in 2019 than whatever he would bring back in a trade. But that may mean that he has to open the season in Triple-A, assuming Herrera, Quinn and Altherr are healthy.
2. The Phillies have a need in the rotation, but it may not be addressed until the trade deadline
One of the worst things that an NFL executive can do in the NFL Draft is to enter the war room thinking "We need a quarterback, so regardless of how the board unfolds in front of us, when we're up, we're taking a quarterback." It's how you end up with Christian Ponder or Brandon Weeden playing quarterback for your team, and a pink slip on your desk a few years later.
The Phillies have a need in the starting rotation, but perhaps not a great option to fill said need.
Behind Aaron Nola, the Phillies absolutely could use another stable arm. Better yet, they could use a stable, left-handed pitcher. But that doesn't necessarily make Dallas Keuchel, the 2015 American League Cy Young Award winner, a great fit.
If the 2015 version of Keuchel was a free-agent, he would make a ton of sense for the Phillies. But if the 2015 version of Keuchel was a free-agent, he wouldn't still be available with March on the horizon. Heck, the Astros probably never would have let him reach free-agency.
But in 2018, Keuchel was the fourth best pitcher on his own team. Sure, the Astros have two of the league's 10 best starters in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But Charlie Morton, who the Phillies were unwilling to give a two-year/$30 million deal, topped Keuchel in ERA, FIP and fWAR a season ago.
There are things to like about Keuchel: he still pitched over 200 innings in 2018 and the Phillies could use a pitcher that eats innings and posts an ERA of 3.74 and FIP of 3.69. Just not if they have to pay the 31-year-old like he's still pitching at an elite level. And there's been no indication that Keuchel would be willing to take a deal like the one Morton ultimately signed with the Tampa Bay Rays, even though Morton has clearly been the superior pitcher over the past two campaigns.
It makes you wonder why the Phillies weren't more aggressive on Morton, or weren't willing to match the third-year vesting option that J.A. Happ got to return to the New York Yankees. It also makes you wonder whether Gio Gonzalez - a free-agent lefty that posted a 2.13 ERA across 25.1 innings for the Milwaukee Brewers - couldn't still be considered.
But at this stage, the Phillies best chance for a noteworthy rotation upgrade could come at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Madison Bumgarner can become a free-agent after the 2019 season, and with the division-rival San Diego Padres adding Manny Machado and the Giants missing out on Harper, it's hard to see a path to San Francisco even competing for the Wild Card. Texas Rangers lefty Mike Minor, who the Phillies were connected to this offseason, could be a name they circle back on, though he would be more of a back-end-of-the-rotation option.
It's difficult to imagine the Cleveland Indians not winning the American League Central, perhaps the worst division in baseball, but if they fell out of things, Corey Kluber would become the blue-chip at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Phillies showed interest in the two-time American League Cy Young Award winner when the Indians listened to offers this offseason, and presumably would do so again if they felt he was the missing piece to them winning a World Series.
3. Craig Kimbrel's Market Is Worth Monitoring
After adding David Robertson this offseason, the Phillies aren't short on talented relievers. Seranthony Dominguez was perhaps overlooked in a crowded field of National League rookies a season ago, but he flashed All-Star potential. Pat Neshek was the Phillies lone All-Star in 2017. Lefties Jose Alvarez and Adam Morgan are out of minor league options, so they likely will make the Opening Day roster. The same goes for Hector Neris, who at times as been dominant. And veteran Juan Nicasio, acquired in the Jean Segura deal, is also pretty likely to be on the Opening Day roster.
This says nothing of Tommy Hunter, who is currently sidelined with a flexor strain. If he's healthy, he's making $9 million, so he's going to be on the team.
That leaves Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano, Yacksel Rios, James Pazos and Austin Davis all to open the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, because they all have minor league options remaining. All will likely play a role at the major league level in 2019.
So, on paper, the Phillies don't need to add another reliever. But without much certainty in the starting rotation after Aaron Nola, if the price on Craig Kimbrel drops, it would be hard not to consider building a super bullpen.
Like Keuchel, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki says the Phillies don't plan to make a serious push unless Kimbrel becomes willing to take a shorter-term deal. We don't know much about what the seven-time All-Star is currently seeking in free-agency, but what we know is that he started out the offseason reportedly looking for a six-year deal. Spoiler alert: After posting a 5.91 ERA in the Boston Red Sox World Series run, Kimbrel isn't going to get six years. The 30-year-old probably wouldn't have gotten six years even if he had been perfect in the postseason.
Still, Kimbrel posted a 1.42 FIP and 3.3 fWAR just two season ago. He posted a 3.13 FIP and 1.5 fWAR in the 2018 regular season. His 211 ERA+ is the best in baseball history among relievers, and his fastball still averaged 97.5 miles per hour in 2018. If his price drops to the four-year/$70 million deal that Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors projected he would receive at the outset of the offseason, that would seem to be a reasonable price. It's hard to tell if that would be reasonable enough to interest the Phillies, though, because four years for a closer certainly doesn't fall under the "short-term deal" category.
However unlikely a Kimbrel deal may seem, there hasn't appeared to be an obvious front-runner for his services this offseason. The Red Sox have made clear since the beginning of the offseason that they didn't expect to retain Kimbrel. The Atlanta Braves, the team Kimbrel broke into the league with, have been connected to him, but there's no indication they've made a serious push. And since his agent insisted last weekend he has no interest in sitting out the 2019 season, the Phillies should keep tabs on the hard-throwing righty's market - just in case he falls into their laps.
