Over 35 percent of of the 2019 Baseball Hall of Fame votes are in, and so far, so good for two former Philadelphia Phillies aces.
The late Roy Halladay, in his first year of eligibility for the Hall of Fame, has received 94.6 percent of votes on the first 35.7 percent of ballots. According to Ryan Thibodaux's Hall of Fame tracker, Halladay needs to receive 64.2 percent of remaining votes to stay above the necessary 75 percent to become a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Halladay, who spent the final four seasons of his 16-year career with the Phillies, finished his career with 203 wins, a 3.38 ERA and a 3.39 FIP. His 64.3 career bWAR does fall short of the average bWAR of a Hall of Fame starting pitcher (73.4), though he slightly tops the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher in terms of WAR7 and is on par with the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher in terms of JAWS.
Given how differently starting pitchers are used from era to era, it's perhaps a better barometer to compare starting pitchers to their contemporaries. Clayton Kershaw's career totals in every category will ultimately blow away Halladay, and likely the overwhelming majority of starting pitchers in baseball history. But in terms of most major statistics, Halladay will be on par with or better than Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke when their careers conclude, and easily top Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia and Max Scherzer, among others.
Whether awards are a great way at gauging someone's Hall of Fame case or not, Halladay does well in that department. He was an eight time All-Star, led the league in wins twice, and is one of six pitchers in baseball history to win a Cy Young Award in both leagues. Three of the other five - Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson - are Hall of Famers. Roger Clemens would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer if not for his connection to PEDs. The aforementioned Scherzer, the most recent pitcher to win the Cy Young Award in both the American and National League, will have a compelling Hall of Fame case when he retires.
Halladay, who spent 12 of his 16 seasons north of the border, will certainly wear a Blue Jays cap if he's elected to the Hall of Fame. However, his two most memorable moments - his May 2010 perfect Game and October 2010 postseason no-hitter - likely cemented his Hall of Fame case. As Halladay said at his retirement press conference, his stint in Philadelphia was the icing on the cake to his career.
Curt Schilling had perhaps the opposite career track of Halladay, spending eight-and-a-half seasons of his career with the Phillies, the most of any team. However, if he ever makes the Hall of Fame, he could very well go in as an Arizona Diamondback, where he won a co World Series MVP in 2001, and had perhaps the two finest seasons of his career in 2001 and 2002. He could also go in as a Red Sox, a place where he won two World Series titles in four years. The possibility of him going into the Hall of Fame as a Phillie exists and would be an interesting debate to have if he does get inducted.
Of course, it's not a lock that Schilling gets elected to the Hall of Fame. The six-time All-Star is in his seventh year on the ballot, and after seeing a decrease in his voting totals from 2016 to 2017, Schilling saw just a six percent increase in his vote totals in 2018, putting him at 51.2 percent. In the next three years, Schilling needs to increase his vote totals by 24 percent.
The good news for Schilling is that among public ballots, he's received 72.8 percent of votes thus far. That wouldn't put him into the Hall of Fame in 2019, but it would be a major win as his time on the ballot winds down.
Never shy to share his opinions, Schilling has alienated some voters in recent years with his political and social views. However, in terms of his on-field accomplishments, Schilling's Hall of Fame case is rather clear-cut.
Unlike Halladay, Schilling tops the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher in terms of bWAR and JAWS, with a WAR7 that's only just shy of the average Hall of Fame starting pitcher. Schilling posted a 3.46 ERA, a 3.23 FIP and 83 complete games in 20 major league seasons.
In my mind, a lack of postseason appearances or postseason success should never hurt a Hall of Fame candidate. We're not evaluating quarterbacks or the star player on an NBA team, one player can only do so much in baseball. Schilling, though, is one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all-time and that should add onto his case. In 19 career playoff starts, Schilling posted a 2.23 ERA, an 0.97 WHIP and four complete games. Schilling won the 1993 NLCS with the Phillies, and that's fairly far down the list of his noteworthy postseason accomplishments. As mentioned above, Schilling won co-MVP of the 2001 World Series - one of the greatest World Series' in baseball history. And after not winning a World Series for 86 years, Schilling won a title with the Red Sox in 2004, his first season with the club, one of two championships he helped Boston to in his final four seasons.
The unfortunate part for Schilling is that those who don't plan to vote for him are incentivized not to make their ballots public. Like Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Billy Wagner and Scott Rolen, Schilling has a passionate fanbase that will chastise any voters who don't vote for him. These voters may not be voting for Schilling for different reasons than the other quartet, but they often hide and don't make their ballots public because they fear being criticized. Until the Hall of Fame forces voters ballots to become public, that problem will continue.
In any event, Halladay appears on track to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, while Schilling, who may represent the next chance for someone to be inducted into the Hall of Fame as a Phillie, could make a major inroads in 2019 in his quest for Cooperstown.
