LSU's Justin Jefferson is an elite receiving prospect. He has great hands, he is quick, he is dangerous after the catch and has put up big numbers in big spots against the best competition in college football. The gap between Jefferson and the top trio at receiver in the 2020 NFL Draft is not as big as many think.
There is, however, one concern I have about picking Jefferson — and that is where he lines up.
Jefferson's big season with LSU in 2019, when he caught 111 passes for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns, came from the slot. Jefferson spent 81% of his snaps in 2019 in the slot, as opposed to just 29% of his snaps in 2018.
The difference in production for Jefferson in the slot as opposed to the outside is dramatic.
2019: 111 catches, 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns
2018: 54 catches, 875 yards and six touchdowns
Part of that is certainly due to how much better LSU's offense was in 2019 as opposed 2018, but it is a noteworthy difference when you consider how dramatic the drop-off is. Half as many catches, almost half as many yards and 12 less touchdowns.
It is possible Jefferson could play on the outside, but at this point it is a projection that he will be able to. You want to do as little projecting as possible when using a big asset like a first-round pick or signing a big free agent. It is why when the Eagles signed both Darius Slay and Nickell Robey-Coleman, general manager Howie Roseman said it was reassuring to know they have seen those players play the exact role they will on the Eagles. There wasn't a ton of guessing to do when it came to how they would fit on the Eagles.
That is important when it comes to Jefferson. Ideally, you don't want your first-round draft pick switching positions in his transition from college to the NFL. Jefferson excelled out of the slot, and in a perfect world, he would play the same role he did at LSU with the Eagles.
The issue is there might not be space for him to do that.
Last season the Eagles' best option on offense, Zach Ertz, operated out of the slot. Needless to say he won't be moving outside. Backup tight end Dallas Goedert also spent a ton of time in the slot and did the majority of his work over the middle of the field. With both Ertz and Goedert, the Eagles have elite-level receiving tight ends they can count on for years to come.
That isn't to say there are zero snaps for Jefferson in the slot, but they are somewhat limited looking at the Eagles' snaps in the slot from last season:
Slot snaps in 2019:
- Zach Ertz: 236
- Nelson Agholor: 268
- Dallas Goedert: 147
- J.J. Arcega-Whiteside: 41
- Alshon Jeffery: 31
- Greg Ward: 123
- DeSean Jackson: 18 (47% of 38 routes run)
While the snaps Agholor took are now open, Ward is likely going to be seeing a bit of an increased role and is not an outside receiver. It is also noteworthy how much time DeSean Jackson spent in the slot in the limited time he did see last season. Jackson can be moved to the outside, but at least last season in the few snaps he did see, the Eagles do seem to like what he brings out of the slot. .
And that is the issue with Jefferson.
Jefferson is likely talented enough and the Eagles' coaching staff is smart enough to make something work. But picking Jefferson at No. 21 feels a bit like trying to force a square-peg into a round hole.
The Eagles will either have to change how they use other players on offense to accommodate Jefferson, or change how Jefferson was used at LSU, adding a layer of difficulty for the rookie as he transitions to the next level. That isn't necessarily the case with the receivers in the draft who have excelled on the outside, like Baylor's Denzel Mims, TCU's Jalen Reagor or Clemson's Tee Higgins.
This doesn't mean they shouldn't pick Jefferson. He might be a better player than those three. That matters more than the fit. I wouldn't not pick Jefferson because of this concern.
But in the never-ending debate on what the Eagles should do at wide receiver, how Jefferson fits in with the Eagles' offense is certainly something to consider — and if the Eagles do pick him, they better be sure he can be effective on the outside as well.
You can follow Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
