Joel Embiid has referred to himself as unstoppable, in addition to the best defender in the NBA. He will need to back up those words in order for the 76ers to beat the Toronto Raptors, and I believe he will.
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Whether it's Kawhi Leonard against a combination of Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler and James Ennis, Pascal Siakham's emergence or Toronto's depth, many prognosticators are stacking the odds up against the 76ers. Head coach Brett Brown said before Friday's practice that he won't use the underdog theme in his coaching strategy. At the same time, he's said on multiple occasions that the recent lack of success against Toronto is irrelevant. But let's face the facts—until the Sixers prove otherwise, they're underdogs against the Raptors, and winning this series will be considered a significant upset, as well as a message to the rest of the East that the Sixers are legit despite their shortcomings.
It's why the franchises "crown jewel" needs to dominate 34-year-old Marc Gasol, who's given Embiid trouble in the past.
Embiid's health could hold him back, as it's been a mystery all postseason. The big guy played two games against Brooklyn that he was doubtful for, and missed a game he was listed as questionable. Fortunately for the Sixers, his knee appeared to be in its best condition in the Game 5 clincher. On top of that, he wasn't on the "medical update" prior to Thursday's practice. If Embiid's left knee soreness is feeling better, he needs to take advantage of that with enormous offensive performances against someone who's nine years older than him.
Gasol's biggest threats to Embiid are his strength and ability to shoot three's. If I were Brown and Embiid, let Gasol take those shots. He's averaging 2.6 three-point attempts per game this postseason, making 1.4. He won't be averaging 50 percent if the attempts increase to five, six or seven. Those are three, four or five less possessions a game that either Leonard, Siakham, Kyle Lowry or Danny Green are taking shots. And if Gasol for some reason makes four or five three's in a game, that's 12 or 15 points compared to the near 30 Embiid is capable of putting up. The Sixers center will need to display his strength and get Gasol in foul trouble. If that happens, the Sixers stand a chance to shock a lot of people.
Embiid is a great player. He's a great talker as well. He's had no problem backing that up in the past, and it must continue against Gasol if the Sixers are going to play in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Simmons Preparation
One of the more interesting pieces of information to come from Friday's media availability was the fact that Simmons' preparation has increased this postseason, which includes mediation before games.
"I think just helps me find myself and make sure I'm present for the game," Simmons said.
"You see an advancement in the serious side of NBA Playoffs," Brown said. "You see a preparation that has increased. You see a confidence level and a voice that is slowly emerging before all our eyes. We have used him differently in this year's playoffs. We'll continue to do that and he's embraced it."
Zhaire May Be Available
It would be a big loss for the Sixers if Mike Scott isn't available off the bench. He's nursing a bruised heel and experiencing plantar fasciitis in his right foot.
Brown was asked if Zhaire Smith could be available if Scott isn't ready to go for Game 1, to which he answered yes.
"In the event that (Mike) was not available, I would bring Zhaire into the mix," Brown admitted. "When you go through the decision with Zhaire, for me, in the Brooklyn series if James Ennis, as an example, got re-injured and something happened where you had to call upon a wing, the experience that Jonathon Simmons has had in NBA Playoff environments was the swing vote for me. When a few of the games had played out where the margin was clear and I could sort of empty the bench, I wished I had Zhaire."
Prediction
I was near perfect with my prediction of the first round. Other than Simmons' phenomenal performance that led the Embiid-less 76ers past the Brooklyn Nets in Game 3, everything else went as I thought it would.
The Sixers second round series against the Raptors is a little harder to predict because of all the uncertainties attached.
When I made my mid-season bold predictions, I said the Sixers would take the Raptors in six. Things have changed though. I still believe they'll advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, but it won't be in six.
Game 1: Raptors Win (1-0 TOR)
The Sixers faced a lot of adversity against Brooklyn, which got lost in the scuffle as they took care of the Nets in five games. Whether it was losing Game 1, not having Embiid for Game 3 or rallying in Game 4, Brown's squad showed resilience, which is an encouraging sign for this daunting task of Toronto. Brown deserves a lot of credit for making the right defensive adjustments by the end of the series to put them over the top. Round two will be a chess match of adjustments once again, and similar to round one, they'll need to overcome a Game 1 defeat. The likely absence of Mike Scott due to foot issues will be an early series problem for the 76ers as well. I'm no doctor, but since the Sixers medical report Thursday afternoon said he was day-to-day, even though Brown was skeptical about his Game 1 availability, I'd be shocked if he missed both games up north.
The Raptors will squeak out a nail biter in Game 1, but it will teach Brown and the 76ers a lot about what they need to do to get over the hump of Toronto, Kawhi Leonard and Scotiabank Arena.
Game 2: Sixers Win (Series Tied at 1)
Embiid said the Sixers went into last season's second round over confident against Boston. Acknowledging that is a tremendous sign of maturity. Like the Nets series, a Game 1 loss to Toronto will kick a sense of urgency into this talented group. They'll be fed up with the narrative that they can't beat Kawhi and the Raptors.
Game 2 will be a nail biter like Game 1, with the talent of the Sixers starting five getting them out of Toronto with a split.
Game 3: Sixers Win (2-1 PHI)
The Raptors don't know what's coming to them at Wells Fargo Center. With the series tied at 1 and momentum in the 76ers favor, Game 3 will be a convincing double digit win, but also a dangerous luxury to be up 2-1. While this is a more mature and experienced Sixers team, they're still human and capable of a letdown.
Game 4: Raptors Win (2-all)
Thus, I take you to Game 4, when the Raptors will even things up as a response to their disappointing Game 3 defeat. On top of this series being a strategic game of chess, it's going to be a boxing match. One team will punch and think they're close to a knockout blow, but the other team will show resiliency and claw back. Strap in for three more games.
Game 5: Raptors Win (3-2 TOR)
This may be a different team than the several that combined to lose 13 in a row in Toronto. That doesn't mean Scotiabank Arena is an easy place to play. With home court back in the Raptors favor, they will outlast the Sixers by a slim margin in Game 5, putting them on the brink of elimination as they head south to Philadelphia.
Game 6: Sixers Win (3-all)
With the help of the South Philadelphia crowd, the 76ers will empty the tank in Game 6 to force a Game 7 in Toronto. It will come down to one of the final possessions—decided by a big shot, just like Scott drilled in Game 4 against Brooklyn.
Game 7: Sixers Win (4-3 PHI)
I know what you're probably thinking—homer pick. I'd argue though that it's easy to pick Toronto in this series. They may have Leonard, Siakham, Green, Lowry, Gasol, Serge Ibaka and other contributing role players. Nick Nurse might've done a great job coaching this team in his first season. But something tells me this Sixers starting five—with three guys playing for contracts, Embiid trying to cement himself as one of the top players in the NBA and Simmons determined to prove he belongs in the conversation as well—will find a way to steal a seventh game in enemy territory.
The Sixers aren't embracing an underdog role now, but it might suit them to as the series progresses. Just take the 2017-18 Eagles. That worked out well for them.
Most will pick the Raptors. I'm going with the 76ers. If it plays out as I predicted, it will be one of the best postseason series in the 76ers storied history.
