The Philadelphia Phillies need another starter like humans need oxygen.
The clock has struck midnight on soft-tossing pitch-to-contact guys, like Jared Eickhoff and Cole Irvin, and without real reinforcements in the minor leagues, the Phillies are going to have to turn to the trade market if they want to make any kind of noise the rest of this season. If they don't, you're likely looking at what happened in Atlanta yesterday every fifth day.
Now, on the positive side, it looks like Nick Pivetta has at least turned himself into, at worst, a solid starting pitcher, with the upside of so much more. Zach Eflin has the 6th lowest ERA in the NL and Aaron Nola, while he won't be the ace of last season, is still a very good starting pitcher.
The Phillies have the makings of a decent top three there, if they go and add another starter. Philly can push Arrieta back to the five spot, (where he can pretty much just be an innings eater) and the rotation can hold for the rest of the season.
With the trade deadline a little over a month away, here are eight starting pitcher trade options for the Phillies:
Madison Bumgarner - San Francisco Giants
Trading for Madison Bumgarner this season would be a mistake by the Phillies. For one, on name alone, he's going to cost the Phillies multiple top prospects and I'm not so sure you're going to get that level of return on investment from Bumgarner.
The Phillies would need Bumgarner to be their version of '08 C.C Sabathia on the Brewers and I'm just not sure he's that guy anymore.
This is a damning stat from Corey Seidman:
The fact of the matter is that Bumgarner pitches at a huge ballpark in San Francisco that has aided his numbers a bit and the Phillies would be paying ace-like price for a guy that isn't an ace anymore.
Could Bumgarner be rejuvenated by a playoff chase? Sure.
Would I want Bumgarner in a must-win game? Yes.
But when you factor in the cost, the fact that he's a rental and evaluate this team this season—going all in on a Bumgarner trade would be a mistake by the Phillies.
The Phillies should only trade top prospects if they're going to get a guy for multiple seasons, not just this one.
Mike Minor - Texas Rangers
Mike Minor has enjoyed a career resurgence in Texas, and even though they're in Wild Card contention, they would be wise to sell high on Minor. He's 31, pitching at the peak of his powers and is signed through all of next season for only $9 million.
For a team that hasn't shown the willingness to go over the luxury tax, Minor would be an ideal fit for the Phillies.
Minor's numbers are very solid, especially when you factor in the hitters haven down there in Arlington: 2.63 ERA/1.18 WHIP/188 ERA+/9.3 K/9
Given those numbers and the contract, Minor is going to cost the Phillies a pretty penny.
Think a package could look like this: Adonis Medina, Mickey Moniak, Rafael Marchan and Nick Williams for Mike Minor and Hunter Pence.
Zack Greinke - Arizona Diamondbacks
If the Phillies don't care about the luxury tax, and they shouldn't, a Greinke trade would be absolutely perfect.
The Phillies would only have to pay money, instead of prospects, to acquire one of the best starting pitchers in the NL. Greinke is 35 and still has the fourth lowest ERA in the NL.
Even though he's owed $35 million for each of the next two seasons, there's no real signs of Greinke slowing down. He's a super smart pitcher that has learned how to pitch at a lower velocity.
Obviously the elephant in the room is whether or not Greinke would waive his no trade clause to pitch in a big market like Philadelphia. He did pitch in LA for four seasons, but Greinke has long shied away from big markets.
Still, acquiring Greinke would not only help for this season, but also the next two, and won't cost them much prospect-wise—if the Phillies are willing to eat most of his salary.
A win-win for this team.
Robbie Ray - Arizona Diamondbacks
Greinke's teammate, Robbie Ray, will also be highly sought after this trade deadline given his huge strikeout potential, his age and contract. The Diamondbacks are technically still in the race in the NL Wild Card, but given that they traded away Paul Goldschmidt and let A.J Pollock walk in free agency, the Diamondbacks will most likely sell at the deadline and replenish their farm system.
Ray is interesting. He's not a free agent until 2021, strikes out a ton of guys, which is something the Phillies desperately need, but he does have issues with command and will cost a ton prospect-wise.
Still, given that he'll be able to help this year and next year, the Phillies should be in on Ray at the deadline.
His overall stat-line is good: 3.83 ERA/1.3 WHIP/11.6 K/9/117 ERA+
His walks are trending down, only allowing one in each of his last three starts, which is a good thing but still he's pretty hit or miss.
There's potential for more with Ray but the price will be steep. I think it would cost them both Medina and Luis Garcia, and a couple lower level prospects, given Robbie Ray's age (27) and contract status. I'm just not sure he's worth the huge haul it's likely going to take to get him.
Matthew Boyd - Detroit Tigers
Matthew Boyd is going to cost the Phillies Alec Bohm if they want to trade for him.
Let's just get that out of the way now.
Boyd is having a breakout year for the Tigers and is a perfect candidate for the Phillies at the trade deadline.
His stats are really, really good: 3.35 ERA/1.08 WHIP/11.4 K/9/1.7 BB/9/147 ERA+
He's 28 and isn't a free agent until 2023.
If the Phillies do trade for Boyd they have to really do their research and make sure this isn't a fluke given the level of prospects they're going to have to give up to acquire him.
Still, he'd likely be worth the price. He's pitching on a bad Tigers team and still putting up really good numbers. 11.7 strikeouts per nine and only 1.7 walks per nine is no joke, but neither is the prospect they're likely going to have to give up to acquire him.
Also, the Tigers have some decent bullpen arms, like Shane Greene, if they wanted to help this year's team as well.
Marcus Stroman - Toronto Blue Jays
Marcus Stroman would be fan favorite here if they traded for him. He pitches with a ton of emotion and adds some much-needed flare to the game of baseball.
The problem is that he's another guy that relies on soft-contact, but will also cost a good amount in prospects since he's not a free agent until 2021.
Stroman has been largely hit or miss these last couple years. One good year, followed up by one bad year. This year, seems to be a good year for Stroman: 3.18 ERA/1.3 WHIP/138 ERA+/7.0 K/9
The ERA is good but the strikeout numbers and WHIP are concerning.
Stroman would be a nice addition, but given the prospects it's likely going to cost I'd rather have Minor or Ray.
Trevor Bauer
Bauer would be an incredible trade for the Phillies, the problem is that the Indians are still in the AL Wild Card hunt and he's not signing anywhere long-term. Bauer has stated multiple times that he wants to sign one-year deals with multiple teams after he's out of the arbitration process.
So if the Phils trade for him, they'd only have him for the rest of this year and next season.
Still, Bauer would be worth it, if the Phillies think they're a World Series caliber team next season.
He's pitched to a stat-line this season of: 3.41 ERA/1.11 WHIP/137 ERA+/9.7 SO/9
Bauer is going to cost a ton prospect-wise given his age and him being signed through next season.
Could even see the Phillies having to part with Adam Haseley given the Indians needs for young outfield prospects.
Just not sure Bauer is the right move for this team at this time.
Tanner Roark - Cincinnati Reds
Roark wouldn't be the most inspiring trade possibility, but the Reds are likely to sell and he's a free agent at the end of the year so he shouldn't cost the Phillies much prospect-wise.
Roark is just a solid pitcher that doesn't allow homers and should be able to take the ball every fifth day and keep the team in a ball game.
Roark on the season: 3.63 ERA/1.38 WHIP/9.0 K/9/129 ERA+
Again, nothing crazy from Roark but if the Phillies are looking for a solid pitcher that should help them for the rest of the season and won't cost much in prospects, Roark is an intriguing option.
