Expectations are a dangerous thing, but we need to take a deep breath when it comes to the Philadelphia 76ers.
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All of the sudden, after the team's depressing and ugly Game 1 loss to the Nets—coupled with Joel Embiid's left knee tendinitis—we started to hear murmurs of The Process being a failure and the team blowing up after the season. That's a very pessimistic outlook on the franchise's future, and I'm not here for that.
Thankfully, last night's Game 2 dominating victory has the fickle narrative shifting back towards the positive end of the spectrum, but make no mistake about it, the feeling surrounding this team is tense.
I don't think the Sixers are going to win the NBA Finals this season. Most likely (they're certainly talented and capable enough to make a deep run), they'll get bounced by Toronto, Boston or Milwaukee and we'll be discussing those same common issues facing this team like:
- Is Brett Brown the right coach?
- Will Ben Simmons develop a jumper?
- Is Jimmy Butler worth a max?
- Is Tobias Harris worth a max?
While those aforementioned questions are certainly fair, and will become increasingly more equitable with every postseason loss, I'm not too worried about the Philadelphia 76ers over the next handful of years. Here's why.
Joel Embiid
Let's just assume for a second Embiid's knee tendinitis will not cause him to retire before the age of 30. I think that's a fair assumption. If it does (knock on wood) ruin his career, then you can stop reading this now because all bets are off.
Embiid, just 25, is under contract for the next four seasons (through 2022-23) and is already one of the best 10 players in the world. The most encouraging thing about Embiid is he has room to grow. He still needs to improve his conditioning, take care of his body better, lock in on being great, take care of the ball, and improve his emotional intelligence. Some times he gets too high or too low during the game, evident by his body language, and it's affecting his play. He'll likely mature and get better here.
Lastly, you'd expect the Sixers to monitor his minutes, back-to-backs, and regular season playing time throughout the rest of his career, something they egregiously failed to do this season. His prime might only last four or five more seasons, but that's plenty of time to win a championship or two.
Ben Simmons
22 years old. Season two. NBA rookie of the year. NBA All-Star. Career averages of 16 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 7.9 assists. Playoff experience. Incredible defense.
Sure, his one weakness is glaring, but his trajectory is so arrow up it's not even funny. He's one of the most valuable commodities in the entire NBA, he's not going anywhere, and he is going to get better...I promise. Nobody peaks at 22-years-old. He's three to four seasons away from his prime!
Simmons will be a restricted free-agent for the 2020-21 NBA season, but will almost certainly sign the rookie scale max extension before then, keeping him in Philadelphia for five additional seasons (through 2024-25). That means Simmons and Embiid will be teammates, in Philadelphia, through the 2022-23 NBA season, at the very least.
Ps. Simmons and Embiid are really starting to gel together, too.
Tobias Harris
Harris has struggled mightily over the last few weeks with his shot, but he'll likely be a part of the core of this team for the next few seasons as well. Just 26-years-old, Harris is one of the NBA's best shooters and will continue to get better and he learns to play with Simmons and Embiid, and the team continues to incorporate more pick-and-roll situations for him.
Harris has only played 29 games as a Sixer, so I'm not going to freak out over a cold shooting stretch. At 26, he also has room to grow, just entering his prime now, and I believe the Sixers realize that—or will at least convince themselves of it, since they can't afford to lose him after giving up four picks and Landry Shamet.
Jimmy Butler
Butler is a little bit more complex of a situation, being that he's 29, exiting his prime. I was critical of Butler upon his arrival in Philadelphia and skeptical that Robert Covington and Dario Saric would be better for this team long-term, but Butler has really impressed me on and off of the court. He's tenacity, clutchness, and iso ability is something this team desperately needed and a deep playoff run may entice him to stay in Philadelphia for some type of discount. But it may not.
Butler is likely seeking a five-year max, whereas Elton Brand and the Sixers would probably like to sign him for less than five years. We'll see what happens, but I'm on board with bringing Butler back.
Zhaire Smith
Smith, just 19, nearly died and I beg you to read his gut-wrenching story. But now he's back and he's a kid that is hard to bet against. In just a few NBA games he's shown some very encouraging signs with his unique athleticism, defensive upside, and surprising ability to knock down shots. Smith is under contract for cheap through 2021-22 (with club options for the final two years).
Jonah Bolden
Bolden, 23, has really impressed me this season. At 6-10, Bolden has shown NBA stretch-four capabilities shooting 35.4-percent from three and blocking 0.9 shots per game with a defensive box-plus minus of 2.0. If Bolden can play the stretch-four role for the Sixers over the next few seasons and continue to improve, he can become a serious NBA asset. Bolden is under team control through 2021-22.
Brett Brown
I totally believe in Brown, a very polarizing figure in Philadelphia sports right now. I think Embiid and Simmons trust him, his style is conducive for the modern NBA, and he's willing to learn, adjust, and improve. He's not perfect, but I don't think the Sixers would find a better option than Brown. He's dealt with a ridiculous amount of personnel changes this season and has received some unfair criticism. Firing Brown would be a net negative in my opinion, and there's value in keeping him together with Embiid and Simmons going forward. They're building something.
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Everyone else's future with the team is very much in doubt, but with the above core in place—most notably Embiid and Simmons—the Sixers will be more than fine. Finding complimentary role pieces will be key and the team will continue to develop cohesion over time. The starting unit of Embid, Simmons, Butler, Harris, and JJ Redick haven't even played 15 games together yet.
Again, this season could end in a first-round playoff exit or an NBA Finals victory (Golden State actually looks vulnerable for the first time in forever), but the end result will dictate the tone of the conversation this offseason. Just remember, the Sixers haven't been this good in over 30 years and they have one of the best young tandems in the league.
So things aren't that bad.
