With 11-percent of the regular season in the books, the Sixers have struggled where we thought they'd struggle, thrived where we thought they thrived, and ultimately do not look like a team, as currently constructed, that can win an NBA championship.
Make no mistake, they'll finish with a top three seed in the East, and perhaps even win the conference and end up in the Finals. They'll win somewhere in the neighborhood of 54 games, and through certain stretches of the season look like a team that can cause real trouble in the playoffs. Some people will pick them to win it all.
They are however, missing some key ingredients that just about every NBA champion, certainly in 2019, should have.
Elite Perimeter Shot Creation
Every NBA champion since 1980, save for the 1994 Houston Rockets, has had at least one perimeter player who can create shots for himself and for others at an elite level in the half court. That first Rockets championship managed to avoid Michael Jordan and ended up facing a team in the Finals who also did not have that sort of player. They also had, perhaps, the most talented offensive and defensive center in the history of the NBA, in his prime.
The Sixers just don't have one.
Simmons, while a very good player in a lot of ways, is just not at the point in his career where he does this very well in the half court from the perimeter, especially during the playoffs against teams that are playing defense at a high level. So who else is there?
Next up are Tobias Harris, Josh Richardson, Trey Burke and Raul Neto. Definitely doesn't have the same ring as Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Tony Parker, Isiah Thomas, and Michael Jordan.
There just seems to be no way that the Sixers can win multiple playoff rounds against good teams without a player who can do this.
Shooting
Shooting is probably the most important skill in the NBA in 2019. While the Sixers have a bunch of guys who are capable shooters, they've got almost no one who can create the sort of gravity to open the floor up for both Embiid and Simmons, two players who would be far more effective if defenders had to think twice about collapsing into the lane.
The best shooter on the Sixers is Furkan Korkmaz, and the person who has shot threes the most is Al Horford. That sentence right there should give you a good indication of where they are. Korkmaz has been a bit of a revelation, but he's just one guy—and he's had a week of good games in his entire NBA career. My fingers are crossed that the giant-footed, bright-yellow sneakered Korkmaz keeps up his good play, but they're going to need more than him.
The 2019 Raptors had Leonard, Danny Green, Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Marc Gasol, and Serge Ibaka. Not all of them are killers, and not all of them shot well against the Sixers, but there are at least four players there you'd be scared to death to leave open from the three point line.
Horford is capable, and has let them fly a lot more quickly this season than in the past, Josh Richardson's percentages should regress to normal, Tobias Harris is effective if a bit more hesitant than you'd like, etc. But a team whose primary offensive players are Simmons and Embiid should be playing with a bunch of guys who can light it up. This is not that.
Simmons and Embiid
I listed this one third, but it's really the most important.
Ask yourself these questions and make it really simple; so far this season, do Simmons and Embiid look much different than they did last year? Does it look like Simmons has become a more willing shooter and a better free throw shooter? Does it look like Embiid spent the summer taking his game and his fitness up a notch?
Actually, just ask yourself this one question; does Embiid or Simmons look like they're at the level of a true NBA superstar who can take his team to, and through, the Finals? Does Simmons or Embiid look like he's at the same level as Kawhi, Giannis, or LeBron? I think the answer is pretty clearly no.
Sure it's possible Embiid plays himself into shape and becomes that guy and I guess it's possible that Simmons starts shooting 70-percent from the free throw line and going there ten or eleven times per game, but you just get the sense that if either of those guys was going to take the leap to the next level you'd see a hint of it. Those sorts of things develop in the off-season, not during the season, and neither player looks like a player who has added anything significant.
It doesn't mean neither player will never get there, but it does start to help you put this season in its proper context. If the Sixers are going to win a championship, it's going to be on the backs of Simmons or Embiid, or at least one of them. Neither player looks ready to carry that weight.
So, What Now?
I'll get all of the caveats out of the way that I'm going to see on Twitter right here—yes, they can get to the Finals and their opponent's best player can get hurt. Yes, either Simmons or Embiid could show something they haven't shown. Sure, the Sixers could make a big trade or they could somehow get someone on the buyout market that changes their trajectory. I don't think any of these things is particularly likely though.
NBA championship teams over the last decade have hovered around the top five or six in both offensive and defensive efficiency (the exception being the 2016 Cavs), they're able to be great on both ends. Even if the plan is to defense their way to a championship, the list of teams who did that without an elite perimeter player is short. And if you consider Chauncey Billups or Rip Hamilton elite, then the list is one. That lone team had Hakeem Olajuwon on it.
Simmons is only 23, Embiid is only 25, they've barely even played together so far this year, so why can't I just be happy that they're good and the Sixers are good and we're all having a good time?
When they traded for Jimmy Butler, and then doubled down (or hedged their bet, however you want to view it) in trading for Tobias Harris, the Sixers said that "our window is now." They signaled to fans, the media, the league, that they want to win a championship now. When they signed Al Horford, that was another sign. So everything this team does is framed with, "Are they going to win a championship?" And when I have seen them play together, I've seen the same thing I'm used to seeing.
The Sixers have over $92 million in salary cap room allocated for just Horford, Simmons, Embiid and Harris next season. The salary cap is about $110 million this year, and could be going down in 2020-21. Their flexibility is incredibly limited and any moves that add additional money toward the luxury tax will no doubt be very carefully examined if the current team does not make serious noise in the playoffs this year. This season matters.
The Sixers have enough to beat up on the bad teams and give good teams a run for their money. But their flaws, today, are not the sort of flaws that championship teams have.
Let's hope it looks much different on April 12th than it does on November 12th.
