It's taken me a long time to figure out what I think the Sixers should do in this offseason, the most important offseason of our lives (since last year). After a lot of blood, sweat, tears, and podcasts, I have got to inform you that while saying "run it back!" is a ton of fun, I don't think it's the best course of action for the Sixers.
Related: NBA free-agency rumors: Sixers want to run it back
I like to judge the moves made by our team as if the Boston Celtics made them. If Boston handed out five year, $190 million contracts to Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris in one offseason after trading just about all of their assets not named Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid, I'd need to quit my job to spend more time making fun of the Celtics on Twitter. If I could look into the future just one year, and see a team capped out with four guys alone—only one being a top ten player—I'd send a thank you note to Danny Ainge myself.
I don't think "run it back" is the best plan.
Running some of it back could work, but truth be told, I'd rather re-sign neither Butler nor Harris to max contracts than sign both of them. Running it back is not a scenario that prevents the Sixers from being successful, they were better in the playoffs than I thought they'd be. I just don't think it's the best plan.
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons
Before we get into the big decisions themselves, there are two things that are more important than just about anything the Sixers could do in free agency and the draft—1) Ben Simmons has to become a capable shooter (at least 70% from the line and able to shoot and make open threes) and 2) Joel Embiid needs to take his health more seriously. Without those things happening, the Sixers will never win a championship.
Related: Spike's 2019 NBA Draft YouTube Big Board
You can show me all of the stats Simmons has compiled in his two years on the Sixers, and how no player in his first two years has ever put together such a gaudy resume. I'm sure I'll get someone showing me screenshots of his efficiency numbers from Basketball Reference within five minutes of the release of this article. It just doesn't matter. Unless you're a rim running center, there is no player in the NBA who can call himself a useful rotation player who won't shoot a stand still three from the corner, when he's open. It just doesn't work. We can have all sorts of fun during the regular season when half the teams stink and the other half are waiting for April, but when the playoffs roll around, Simmons becomes useless in the half court as an initiator and is mostly invisible when he's off ball.
There are some who point out that Simmons isn't actually a point guard—he's a center or a power forward. But Simmons has said multiple times he believes he's a point guard and if you think he's ready to be relegated to screening and rolling 20 times a game you haven't been paying attention. It doesn't matter if we call Simmons a point guard (they can shoot), a power forward (they can shoot) or a center (they can shoot too), he's holding the team back in the playoffs by not being capable of taking and making an open jump shot. It's 2019, unless a player is sharing the court with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, you are going to need them to be able to shoot.
The health of Joel Embiid is the single most important thing in the Sixers organization. It is the responsibility of both Embiid and the Sixers—who spent the first half of the 2018-19 season treating Embiid like he was a car whose gas light was on with the little arm was to the left of the E, just seeing how long they could go before the thing just stopped. It was incredibly irresponsible for him to play every back to back and, for a good portion of the season, more minutes than any other center. It was mind-numbing in its stupidity when it happened and the Sixers paid for it later in the season.
It's for Embiid to put his ego away, and stop worrying about media, fans, and players saying he's fragile and doesn't play every game. Wherever Embiid goes, his personal chef and personal trainer should be two steps behind (Joe Elliot voice).
It's for someone, anyone, at the Sixers to have a longer view than the three feet ahead of them, a view that's been sorely lacking for a few years now. Hopefully, their recent changes in the medical staff will result in a better plan for Embiid, as Daniel Medina was never known for his belief in 'load management.' David Martin was a key figure in Embiid's rehabilitation from his second foot surgery, and is a major reason why Embiid is able to play today, but his voice was not nearly as loud once Bryan Colangelo took over.
Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris
But now, to the real question at hand; what should the 76ers do about Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris?
Related: Houston Rockets pursuing Jimmy Butler
The team came together in a way I didn't expect during the playoffs. So much so that I was ready to accept the possibility that they were better than the Raptors, even though they lost the series. Some of that was emotion, but the other part is that they made the Raptors look much worse than any other team has during the playoffs.
But now that the shine of the season has worn off, I just can't imagine a world in which giving Butler and Harris the most possible money you can give them, with Joel Embiid already making $30 million and Ben Simmons on the doorstep of a similar extension, is a good idea. Run it back? I'm not so sure.
To bring everyone back at the prices and number of years they're going to need, you'd really have to tell yourself, "I am certain this is a team, with these players, that has a reasonable chance at winning the NBA title next year." I'm just not there.
I can talk myself into one of the two (which one, I go back and forth), but I can't get to a place where I'm confident enough in the future of this roster to lock myself into it for the next five years.
When we talk about how successful the starting lineup of Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, JJ Redick, Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris was, it's important to remember that the Sixers had the best five man lineup in the NBA in 2017-18 as well, with Simmons, Embiid and Redick, along with Robert Covington and Dario Saric (minimum of 300 minutes played). We've got three years worth of data that basically says any lineup with Joel Embiid in it, is one of the best in the NBA. When you add Simmons to it, they've been the best in the NBA. That isn't to say that Butler and Harris didn't add elements the team didn't have, and weren't helpful. They did and they were, but this team will survive just fine if they both walk.
The real Jimmy Butler?
Butler was great in the playoffs, no doubt. Unfortunately, I've got plenty of doubt about the Butler we'll see after he signs that mega-contract, and his fit with Simmons. Butler pretty obviously coasted during the regular season this year, but that wasn't the only issue. For about six weeks, when he wasn't getting the ball as much as he thought he should, he basically refused to shoot spot up threes. I can't imagine that standing in the dunker spot, setting screens, and standing in the corner is going to be a role that Ben Simmons is going to embrace in a regular basis. Simmons has stated numerous times to numerous people in the three years he's been in Philadelphia that he sees himself as a primary ball handler. Part of it is on Simmons, obviously, to become a capable shooter so he can play off ball. But if you're betting on Simmons to become the second real star on the team, I don't think taking the ball out of his hands to give it to Butler is the right way to do it.
Butler battled injuries again this year, as he has in just about every year he's been in the NBA. Paying him at this point is more about paying for his last five years, instead of his next five. While his workload over his career doesn't look too daunting, his half decade of 38 minutes a game with Tom Thibodeau has done a number on some teammates he had during that time in Joakim Noah and Luol Deng, who both fell apart physically in their 30 year-old seasons.
The Harris trade and his fit with Embiid and Simmons
With Embiid, Simmons, Butler and Redick, Harris on a max contract is a poor allocation of resources on a team that seemed like they barely had more than six playable players against Toronto. They're essentially just asking Harris to be a spot up shooter (which he's fine at), but not at all necessary to spend $36 million a year on, especially if he's not going to defend at a high level. It's painful to think about, but they could have had a spot up three point shooter for $2 million next year, $2 million the following year, and $3 million the year after that in Landry Shamet. And while we're on the subject…
The Harris trade was a disaster, even though he's a good player. It didn't make the Sixers substantially better in the short-term, and for it to even seem to make sense they're going to have to way overpay a guy who has not made an All-Star team in his seven NBA seasons. The Clippers were just as good without him as they were with him. Imagining this offseason with Shamet penciled in as a third (or starting) guard, plus two first round picks to use in trades to fill out the roster, is a much better spot to be in than the corner they've painted themselves into.
All of that said, if you're doubling down on Simmons and Embiid (specifically Simmons), Harris might make more sense than Butler does. Harris would seem to have no problem playing third wheel to the team's two young stars, can create some offense on his own out of the pick and roll. He's definitely not as good a player as Butler is, but is younger, and likely less disruptive, and provides a skillset that will mesh more naturally with Simmons. If we're getting the best version of Butler, I'd much rather have him than Harris. I'm just not so sure we'll get that.
That's what makes this so difficult for the Sixers decision makers, and why it's so frustrating that they showed such a sense of urgency in how they managed personnel this season.
Flexibility, or optionality as Sam Hinkie famously called it, should put the Sixers in a position of strength. But instead of having the pieces and assets to be flexible in a good way, it seems like the choices of the last year have made their decisions closer to a basketball version of 'Would You Rather' in which you're weighing the possible negatives instead of the positives.
The solution
What should they do? Probably pick one of the guy players you feel best about moving forward, release JJ Redick's cap hold and try to invest the remaining cap room into players who are lower cost, and have skillsets that will provide depth. Who is it? I could name players (Malcolm Brogdon, Patrick Beverley, Danny Green, Kyle O'Quinn, Seth Curry, etc…) but until we actually get to free agency on June 30th, I don't know what anyone is going to cost. What I'm truly investing in is the upside of Simmons and Embiid, and the notion of depth and flexibility.
I don't pretend to know that my way is the best way. The team is backed into a corner and I'm not all that comfortable with any of the options. But when push comes to shove, I'll take the option that has more options.
