The expectations for the Sixers have been a rollercoaster this season.
At the beginning of the year, with Ben Simmons still on the roster, nobody expected this team to go that far. When they traded for James Harden the expectations skyrocketed all the way to a championship. Over the last few weeks, however, the team's play has been so concerning to some that now there is legitimate worry amongst the fans that they could lose to the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the playoffs.
There is reason to worry. The Sixers could lose to the Raptors. Watching the Sixers lose to the Atlanta Hawks last season proved this is a team that shouldn't be given, and hasn't earned, too much trust in the playoffs.
But while it is fair to be worried, one simple fact shouldn't be overlooked — the Sixers are better than the Raptors. There is a reason they are the higher seed, a reason they are the favorites to win the series and a reason they have better odds to win the title.
So while the Raptors do present some issues for the Sixers, here are some reasons fans should feel confident heading into the first-round matchup:
The Sixers have stars and the Raptors don't: This is a pretty simple one, but it is important to start with — the Sixers have stars on their teams. The Raptors have role players.
If you believe James Harden has been a disappointment since coming to the Sixers, look at how his numbers stack up compared to the best player on the Raptors:
James Harden: 21.0 points, 32% from three, 10.5 assists, 7.1 rebounds
Pascal Siakam: 22.8 points, 34% from three, 5.3 assists, 8.5 rebounds
The Raptors are getting from their best player what the Sixers are getting from Harden, who many feel has been so bad that he shouldn't be re-signed this season. There is a strong argument to be made that if given the choice between the two players for a series that Harden is still the better option than Siakam is. There is also the reality that Harden has a much higher ceiling than Siakam does, as Siakam has only averaged over 20.8 points in a playoff series once in his career. Harden averaged 27.8 points in his last full playoff series with Brookyln last season.
The Raptors don't have any players in the same stratosphere as Joel Embiid, who enters this series as far-and-away the best player, capable of dominating games at a level that nobody on the Raptors can. Embiid had a PER of 31.2 this season, 10 points higher than the Raptors best player.
The bottom line is the Raptors are compromised of role players. Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr. are players you want as your third-best option. There is a reason they weren't in the playoffs last season and haven't done anything of significance since losing Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry.
The Sixers have been one of the top teams in the East all season and have two players in Harden and Embiid who have an elite ceiling — the Raptors simply do not have that caliber of player on their roster.
Raptors have nobody to guard Embiid: The Raptors don't have a player capable of guarding Embiid. That has been clear this season when the two teams have played.
Embiid played the Raptors three times this season. One game he dropped 36 points on 11-16 shooting. In the other he had 30 points on 10-22. Embiid did struggle against the Raptors in one of the matchups, but that was more on him than anything to do with the Raptors, as he got some terrible bounces and just had a bad night shooting, going 6-20 on his way to 21 points.
Part of the reason the Raptors struggled with Embiid this season is that they simply don't have anyone close to big enough to deal with him. The heaviest player the Raptors have is 235-pound Thaddeus Young. They don't have a center on the roster over 225 pounds. Embiid is 280 pounds, giving him a 55 pound advantage over any Raptors center and a 45 pound advantage over the Raptors biggest player. Embiid was +89 against the Raptors in seven games when these two teams met in the playoffs in 2019. The Raptors are smaller now than they were then and Embiid is significantly better.
If Embiid plays at the level he has this season the Raptors have no chance of winning this series.
Raptors don't take efficient shots: The two most efficient shots in basketball are free throws and three pointers. The Raptors don't take or make many of either of them
The Raptors are one of the worst teams in the NBA at getting to the free throw line, as they are 21st in free throws attempted per game. They don't have a single guard on the roster who averages more than 3.9 free throws per game. Siakam is tops on the roster with 5.9 free throw attempts per game.
The Sixers, on the other hand, are 3rd in the NBA in free throws. They have two of the best players in the NBA at getting to the line in Joel Embiid (11.8) and James Harden (8.9).
The advantage at the free throw line will help the Sixers in two ways. First, the Raptors' starters likely be dealing with foul trouble throughout the series. The Sixers' starters, on the other hand, won't be since the Raptors are terrible at getting to the line. Second, the Sixers will be getting plenty of easy points at the line that the Raptors won't be.
As for three pointers, the Raptors do have a slight edge there, but it isn't an impressive one. The Raptors are 19th in three-pointers attempted per game. The Sixers are 27th in three-pointers taken on the season, but they have taken more threes with Harden in the lineup, and are 7th in the NBA in three-point percentage as opposed to the Raptors, who are 20th.
The Sixers are almost certainly going to hit more free throws and more threes in this series — and if they do, it is hard to picture them losing.
DeAndre Jordan won't be playing: The biggest concern on the Sixers roster, outside of some concerning play from James Harden, is the backup center spot. Making it especially traumatic for fans is the fact that the Sixers lost to the Raptors in 2019 in large part because they had nobody to play at backup center.
Three years later and the issues at backup center are almost just as bad. DeAndre Jordan has been terrible since signing with the Sixers. Making matters worse is that Rivers has stuck with Jordan much longer than most fans have wanted him too, playing the veteran over a seemingly better option in Paul Reed. Reed showed his potential on Sunday in the team's season finale, scoring 25 points off the bench.
The good news is that is seems Reed will be getting the majority of the minutes against the Raptors as the backup center. Rivers made it crystal clear on Sunday night after the Sixers win over the Pistons — Reed will play agains the smaller teams, Jordan will play against the bigger teams.
If Rivers was telling the truth, and sticks to it, it will be Reed playing against the Raptors as opposed to Jordan. Reed isn't a great player yet, but he is better than Jordan — and Jordan not playing removes one of the biggest issues on the Sixers.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com
