Things change very quickly in the NFL.
And after three weeks of the 2020 season, there is no denying things look a lot different when it comes to Carson Wentz and his future with the Eagles.
To say Wentz has really struggled through the first three games might be putting it mildly. He has been inaccurate, he has made poor decisions, he has been the main reason his team is 0-2-1 after their tie to the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday.
Simply put, he has not only not been the franchise quarterback the Eagles signed up for, but his poor play has played a big role in making them a losing team. Over the last 32 games with Wentz at quarterback the Eagles are now 15-16-1, a losing record over two full seasons of football.
The good news is, as soon as things can change for the worse in the NFL, they can change for the better. Next Sunday is a new day, a new game, and a chance for Wentz to start turning things around.
But what if he doesn't?
If Wentz continues to struggle, the Eagles might find themselves in an unexpected situation — looking to move on from a quarterback they handed a franchise-level deal to just one year ago, and potentially giving rookie Jalen Hurts — or a top-five draft pick — a serious look as the starter.
If they do make that decision, what would be the financial ramifications?
Here is a deep dive:
It was just one year ago the Eagles handed Wentz a record-setting four-year, $128 million contract that kept him under contract with the team through 2024. The contract was a tricky and complex one, which isn't surprising considering how good both Howie Roseman and Eagles cap guru Jake Rosenberg are at constructing contracts to benefit both the player and the Eagles' salary cap.
The contract was a lucrative one for Wentz up front, and by the end of the 2020 season, he will have collected a large portion of the deal. That is key in looking at when the Eagles could theoretically move on from Wentz.
Here is an estimate, via OverTheCap.com, of the money the Eagles will have either given to Wentz or he will have guaranteed by the end of the 2020 season:
$16.37 million signing bonus at time of signing
$720K in 2019 as base salary
$30 million option for 2020
$8 million roster bonus for 2020
$1.383 million in 2020 as a base salary
$10 million roster bonus in 2021
$15.4 million base salary in 2021 became guaranteed on 3rd day of the 2020 league year
Total: $81.85 million
As you can see, Wentz's 2021 salary of $15.4 million became fully guaranteed by him being on the roster the third day of the 2020 league year. So Wentz's base salary for 2020 and 2021 are already locked in, bringing that total to just over $81 million.
Wentz's base salary for 2021 being locked in is big. According to Over the Cap, If the Eagles traded Wentz at the end of the 2020 season he would have a $33 million cap hit in dead money for 2021 despite not being on the roster, which is obviously a huge number.
That doesn't completely rule out the Eagles potentially trading him.
The Eagles are currently projected to be around $84.9 million over the salary cap for 2021. Trading Wentz would actually drop that number, albeit slightly, to $84 million over the cap, according to OTC's salary-cap calculator.
So while their cap situation is not great overall, trading Wentz would not really impact it very much in terms of available space.
Moving on from Wentz after this season would also increase their salary cap space in 2022 by almost $31 million, from $50 million in space to $81 million, and by around $35 million in 2023, from $101 million to $136 million.
Obviously, having $33 million in dead money on the books for 2021 would be a lot to take for a team as fiscally responsible as the Eagles. Wentz's dead money could take up as much as 18% of the salary cap.
They could, however, justify it depending on what they got for Wentz.
Wentz has pretty reasonable base salaries in each season after 2020, which starts at $15.4 million in 2021, $22 million in 2022, $20 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. Those are the only numbers his new team would have to worry about, and if he keeps playing like he is now, he wouldn't have much bargaining power to command a new deal with his new team.
Unless Wentz suffered a serious injury in 2020, the Eagles could have multiple teams interested in trading for him, even coming off of a bad year. They could probably get a second-round pick in return for Wentz, and perhaps another draft pick in addition to the second depending on how many teams were interested.
The team at the top of that list would likely be the Indianapolis Colts, who are currently starting 38-year old Philip Rivers and will be in the quarterback market next offseason. Their current head coach Frank Reich helped get the best football out of Wentz in the 2017 season, and would likely be very interested in trying to return Wentz back to his near-MVP level of play. The New York Jets, Chicago Bears and maybe even the New England Patriots -- with Cam Newton set to be a free agent this offseason -- could be interested as well.
If the Eagles were able to get a good return for Wentz they could view the $33 million in dead money as essentially buying extra draft picks. Plus, with Hurts only making around $1.5 million, they would in theory still have around the same amount of money allocated to the quarterback position in 2021 as they would if they kept Wentz.
The difference would be not only would they have extra draft picks to build with, but they would also be able to build going forward without having to worry about the massive deal they handed Wentz, something that has clearly impacted their plans this offseason. They would also be moving forward with at least two seasons of having Hurts, their new starting quarterback, on a rookie deal — and potentially a third if they let him play on the final year of his contract. They same would be true if they drafted a rookie quarterback high in the 2021 NFL Draft.
Financially, moving on from Wentz would be easier following the 2021 season. Wentz's base salary of $22 million for the 2022 season becomes guaranteed on March 15th, 2022. If the Eagles were to move on from Wentz at that point, they would still have dead money — around $24 million — but would avoid committing to pay him another $22 million on top of the $81 million they will have already given him. That is an important date, as that is real money being committed to Wentz, not just salary cap figures.
So what does this all mean?
The Eagles are committed to Wentz being on the roster for at least the 2020 season. Prior to the start of the season, the idea of Wentz being gone after this year seemed very slim.
The way this season is going, however, the Eagles have to ask themselves — if Wentz doesn't improve, can they do another season of him at quarterback and Doug Pederson as head coach? And if they can't, and they fire Pederson, do they want to have their new head coach come in to help fix Wentz — or start fresh? There is an argument to be made that hiring a new head coach with the sole purpose of trying to fix Wentz would it be doubling down on a quarterback that just might not be the answer, and would be worse than taking the one-year of dead money on the books.
Figuring out the answer to those questions, especially with the financial ramifications, will not be easy or cheap, but the more Wentz plays this season, the clearer it becomes they are questions that will have to be answered much sooner than expected.
You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com!
