The Philadelphia Eagles started fast in 2022, scoring 24 first-half points en route to a 38-35 win over the Detroit Lions.
The New England Patriots didn’t start fast, scoring 0 first-half points en route to a 20-7 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
The drastically different starts put the teams on different sides of an NFL betting trend that has produced big returns for first-half under bettors.
The Eagles and Lions combined for 38 first-half points to obliterate the first-half over/under total (24.5). It was one of just six league-wide losses for the first-half under to open the 2022 season — and one of only two games in which the first-half under failed to hit by at least four points.
In finishing 10-6, the first-half under had a positive ROI (17.8%) for the eighth time in the last 10 seasons.
Will the Eagles and New England Patriots collectively contribute to a trend that has dominated most of the last two decades?
As of Sept. 6th at BetMGM, the first-half total for the Eagles-Patriots game is 22.5. For first-time bettors, that means the teams must combine for at least 23 points for the over to hit. If they combine for fewer than 23 points, the under hits.
In all Week 1 games since 2005, the under has covered in approximately 58% of games. The winning percentage ranks first among all weeks, as does the ROI of 10.3%. If, for example, you bet $10 on each Week 1 first-half under since 2005, you’d be up nearly $300.
In those 19 seasons, the first-half under has finished with a negative ROI only four times: 2005, 2011, 2013, and 2020.
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