History shows Eagles rarely meet high expectations


They are close to being the betting favorite to win the NFC East. Peter King has them as a top-10 team in the NFL. Their win total for 2022 has already been bet up an entire game, from 8.5 to 9.5.

There is no getting around it — the expectations are suddenly very high for the Eagles.

Recent history shows that might not be a good thing.

Outside of the early 2000’s, when the Eagles ascended under Andy Reid to consistent NFC contenders, the harsh reality is that this franchise has rarely met the challenge of being expected to be good.

Surprising people when they are expected to be bad? The Eagles can do that. Last season was proof they know how to rebound quickly from a bad season. Going from an average team to a great one, however, and meeting suddenly high expectations has been a problem for the Eagles.

While it is hard to quantify exactly what meeting expectations means, one way is to look at how often they go over on their projected win total. Since 2011, the Eagles have had an over/under of 8.5 or higher 8 times.

Here is a look at the results:

2021: 6.5…9 (OVER)
2020: 9.5…4 (UNDER)
2019: 10…9 (UNDER)
2018: 10.5…9 (UNDER)
2017: 8.5…13 (OVER)
2016: 6.5…7 (OVER)
2015: 10…7 (UNDER)
2014: 9…10 (OVER)
2013: 7.5…10 (OVER)
2012: 10…4 (UNDER)
2011: 10.5..8 (UNDER)

As you can see, in the eight seasons they have been projected to have a winning record, they have hit the under 6 times.

Since the 2004 season, after their appearance in the Super Bowl with Andy Reid, the Eagles have had an over/under of 9.5 — their current projected win total — seven times. They have hit the under six times. They have only made the playoffs in three of those seven seasons.

Of course, history won’t impact the results on the field this season. The expectations are high for a reason.

The Eagles have added a ton of talent this offseason. They have an easy schedule. They play in an easy division.

Meeting sky-high expectations, however, has not been easy for the Eagles.

You can reach Eliot Shorr-Parks on Twitter at @EliotShorrParks or email him at esp@94wip.com

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